UEFA Nations League
UEFA Nations League · Tuesday 6 October
Finland vs Belarus Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on Finland at Belarus. No prices were posted when this was read, and the results these two teams hold could not set a fair one.
ESPN carried no DraftKings line for the game on 6 October 2026, 04:37 UTC. That leaves no market figure to test, and there is no figure of ours to set against one either, for the reason below.
Why there is no bet
For club soccer our method is one clause: each side’s expected goals come from its scoring rate at this venue and the opponent’s conceding rate at the other, both against the league average, in a Poisson model. A side or the draw is a bet when our chance is at least 5 points above the market’s.
That needs a league, where every team plays the same opponents. National teams have none. The results ESPN holds for Belarus and Finland since September 2024 are Nations League and World Cup qualifying games, spread across divisions and groups of very different strength. A goal against the weakest team in a group counts the same as one against the strongest, and the method has no way to tell them apart.
This Nations League season is too young to fix that. On 6 October, Belarus had played three games in it and Finland three, fewer than the four we need before any bet.
Belarus at home, Finland away
Since September 2024, Belarus have played 7 competitive games at home. They won 1, drew 4 and lost 2, scoring 5 and conceding 9: 0.71 and 1.29 a game. This home game is played at Illovszky Rudolf Stadion in Budapest, Hungary.
Finland played 8 away in the same span. The record is 2-1-5, with 11 scored and 15 conceded, or 1.38 and 1.88 a game.
Across every competitive game in that window, Belarus are 2-7-6 in 15 and Finland are 5-2-10 in 17. Those records include games against sides from other divisions, so they rank neither team.
In Group C1 of this Nations League, on 6 October, Finland are first with 7 points from 3 games, 9 scored and 1 conceded. Belarus are third with 4 points from 3, 4 scored and 2 conceded.
Head to head
ESPN lists five earlier meetings between the two. The latest, on 29 September 2026, ended Finland 0, Belarus 0.
- 29 September 2026: Finland 0, Belarus 0
- 9 June 2018: Finland 2, Belarus 0
- 11 June 2013: Belarus 1, Finland 1
- 7 June 2013: Finland 1, Belarus 0
- 2 June 2008: Finland 1, Belarus 1
The first of them was in 2008. Five games prove nothing about Tuesday.
The total
Of Belarus’s 15 competitive games since September 2024, 5 finished with three goals or more. Finland’s went that way in 10 of 17.
No total was posted when this was read. Those games were played against opponents of every level, so the rates would not price one anyway.
Pick: no bet
No bet on Finland at Belarus, at any price posted before kickoff.
What would change it is a sample where the opponents are comparable. The group stage adds one game at a time to that: on 6 October, Belarus had played three group games. Nothing on this page says who is fit or selected for Tuesday; check the lineups before any bet on this game.
Finland at Belarus, Tuesday 6 October, 2:45 PM ET, Illovszky Rudolf Stadion. No prices posted when read, 6 October 2026, 04:37 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 6 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.