UEFA Nations League
UEFA Nations League · Tuesday 6 October
Spain vs Croatia Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on Spain at Croatia. The market makes Spain the favourite at 74.9%, and nothing in the results these two teams hold can say whether that price is wrong.
DraftKings, read via ESPN on 6 October 2026, 04:37 UTC, has Croatia at +850, the draw at +500 and Spain at -425. The book’s margin is 8.1 points across the three. Taken out, the prices leave 9.7% for Croatia, 15.4% for the draw and 74.9% for Spain.
The total is 3.5 goals, with the over at +105 and the under at -135. Without the margin, the over is a 45.9% chance.
Why there is no bet
For club soccer our method is one clause: each side’s expected goals come from its scoring rate at this venue and the opponent’s conceding rate at the other, both against the league average, in a Poisson model. A side or the draw is a bet when our chance is at least 5 points above the market’s.
That needs a league, where every team plays the same opponents. National teams have none. The results ESPN holds for Croatia and Spain since September 2024 are Nations League and World Cup qualifying games, spread across divisions and groups of very different strength. A goal against the weakest team in a group counts the same as one against the strongest, and the method has no way to tell them apart.
This Nations League season is too young to fix that. On 6 October, Croatia had played three games in it and Spain three, fewer than the four we need before any bet.
Croatia at home, Spain away
Since September 2024, Croatia have played 9 competitive games at home. They won 7, drew 1 and lost 1, scoring 21 and conceding 11: 2.33 and 1.22 a game.
Spain played 9 away in the same span. The record is 6-3-0, with 26 scored and 8 conceded, or 2.89 and 0.89 a game.
Across every competitive game in that window, Croatia are 11-3-5 in 19 and Spain are 14-5-0 in 19. Those records include games against sides from other divisions, so they rank neither team.
In Group A3 of this Nations League, on 6 October, Spain are first with 9 points from 3 games, 10 scored and 4 conceded. Croatia are third with 3 points from 3, 3 scored and 12 conceded.
Head to head
ESPN lists five earlier meetings between the two. The latest, on 29 September 2026, ended Spain 4, Croatia 1.
- 29 September 2026: Spain 4, Croatia 1
- 15 June 2024: Spain 3, Croatia 0
- 18 June 2023: Croatia 0, Spain 0
- 28 June 2021: Croatia 3, Spain 5
- 15 November 2018: Croatia 3, Spain 2
The first of them was in 2018. Five games prove nothing about Tuesday.
The total
Of Croatia’s 19 competitive games since September 2024, 8 finished with four goals or more. Spain’s went that way in 13 of 19.
The market prices the over 3.5 at 45.9% with the margin out. The same problem applies here as to the result: those games were played against opponents of every level, so the rates do not price this total. No bet on it.
Pick: no bet
No bet on Spain at Croatia: not Croatia at +850, not the draw at +500, not Spain at -425, and not the total of 3.5.
What would change it is a sample where the opponents are comparable. The group stage adds one game at a time to that: on 6 October, Croatia had played three group games. Nothing on this page says who is fit or selected for Tuesday; check the lineups before any bet on this game.
Spain at Croatia, Tuesday 6 October, 2:45 PM ET, Stadion Poljud. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 6 October 2026, 04:37 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 6 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.