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Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Cologne Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Keylor SantosUpdated 8 Oct 2026

No bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach at FC Cologne. Our number and the market are within half a point on every outcome.

DraftKings has FC Cologne at -105, the draw at +285 and Borussia Mönchengladbach at +210. With the book’s margin of 9.5% removed, that is 46.8% for Cologne, 23.7% for the draw and 29.5% for Mönchengladbach. Our number gives Cologne 47.1%, the draw 23.9% and Mönchengladbach 29.1%.

The widest gap is on Cologne, 0.3 points. The draw sits 0.2 points above the market and Mönchengladbach 0.4 below. An outcome is a bet when our chance is 5 points or more above the market’s, so this is a pass.

Our number gives FC Cologne 47.1 percent, the market 46.8 percentBorussia Mönchengladbach at FC Cologne: home, draw, away, ours against the market'sOur numberexpected goals47.1%23.9%29.1%The market1X2 prices, margin removed46.8%23.7%29.5%Prices: FC Cologne -105, draw +285, Borussia Mönchengladbach +210. An outcome is a bet when ours is 5 points or more above the market's.FC CologneBorussia Mönchengladbach
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-08 07:40 UTC.

How the number is built

One clause: each side’s expected goals are its scoring rate at the venue times the opponent’s conceding rate at the other venue, both measured against the league average, and a Poisson distribution, the standard count model for goals, turns the two figures into home, draw and away chances.

Both sides take last season’s numbers. Cologne have played 2 home games this season and Mönchengladbach 2 away games, and the method needs 6 at the venue before it uses this season. So Cologne’s number comes from their 17 home games of 2025-26 and Mönchengladbach’s from their 17 away games, each against that season’s league averages: 1.78 goals a game for the home side and 1.46 for the visitor, over 306 games.

Cologne went 5-4-8 at home last season, scoring 1.76 a game and conceding 1.76. Mönchengladbach went 3-5-9 away, scoring 1.06 and conceding 1.71. Against the averages, Cologne scored at 0.99 times the home rate and Mönchengladbach conceded at 0.96 times it. Mönchengladbach scored at 0.73 times the away rate and Cologne conceded at 1.21 times it. That gives Cologne 1.69 expected goals and Mönchengladbach 1.28.

FC Cologne at home and Borussia Mönchengladbach awayFC Cologne at home and Borussia Mönchengladbach away, this season and lastFC Cologne at home, 2026-27 German Bundesliga1-1-0 in 2scored 2.00 a gameconceded 1.50 a gameFC Cologne at home, 2025-26 German Bundesliga (our number)5-4-8 in 17scored 1.76 a gameconceded 1.76 a gameBorussia Mönchengladbach away, 2026-27 German Bundesliga0-0-2 in 2scored 0.00 a gameconceded 4.00 a gameBorussia Mönchengladbach away, 2025-26 German Bundesliga (our number)3-5-9 in 17scored 1.06 a gameconceded 1.71 a gameRecord is wins-draws-losses in league games. Our number uses this season at the venue from six games; below that, last season.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026.

The table, this season and last

Cologne are 13th after 4 games: 1 win, 1 draw, 2 defeats, 6 scored and 9 conceded, 4 points. Last season they finished 14th with 32 points from 34 games. Mönchengladbach are 18th of 18 with no points: 4 defeats, 6 scored and 16 conceded. Last season they finished 12th with 38 points.

FC Cologne and Borussia Mönchengladbach in the tableLeague position and points per game, this season and lastFC Cologne2026-27 German Bundesliga13 of 18, 4 pts in 42025-26 German Bundesliga14 of 18, 32 pts in 34Borussia Mönchengladbach2026-27 German Bundesliga18 of 18, 0 pts in 42025-26 German Bundesliga12 of 18, 38 pts in 34Three points for a win, one for a draw.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026.

The case against the pass is this season, and it points toward Cologne. Mönchengladbach have lost all 4 league games. Away they are 0-0-2, with no goals scored and 8 conceded. Cologne are 1-1-0 at home, with 4 scored and 3 conceded. Two games at each venue are too few for the method to use, and the number rests on last season, where the two sides were close.

Pick: no bet

No bet on the result. The widest gap is 0.3 points on Cologne, against a 5-point threshold.

What changes it

The price. With the book’s margin as it stands, Cologne become a bet at +119 or longer, the draw at +384 or longer, and Mönchengladbach at +280 or longer.

The lineups. This page states nothing about who is available on 11 October. Check the team news before you bet.

The total

The total is 3.5 goals, over +115 and under -155. With the margin removed the market has the over at 43.3% and the under at 56.7%. Our number has the over at 34.7% and the under at 65.3%. That is reference only: the method bets the result, never the total.

Last season Cologne’s games went over 3.5 in 16 of 34, and Mönchengladbach’s in 13 of 34.

The last meetings

ESPN holds five meetings since April 2023. Each side won one, both 3-1 as the home side, and three were drawn, including 3-3 in March 2024 and again in March 2026. The method does not use them.

Last meetings of FC Cologne and Borussia MönchengladbachFC Cologne and Borussia Mönchengladbach: the last meetings ESPN holds21 Mar 2026FC Cologne 3-3 Borussia Mönchengladbach8 Nov 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-1 FC Cologne9 Mar 2024Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-3 FC Cologne22 Oct 2023FC Cologne 3-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach2 Apr 2023FC Cologne 0-0 Borussia MönchengladbachHome side first. All competitions ESPN lists for the pair.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026.

Borussia Mönchengladbach at FC Cologne, German Bundesliga, Sunday 11 October, 9:30 AM ET, RheinEnergieStadion. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 8 October 2026, 07:40 UTC. Results and tables: ESPN, read 8 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.