Manchester City vs Liverpool Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

No bet on Manchester City at Liverpool. Our number leans to City by 3.2 points, short of the 5 we need.

DraftKings has Liverpool at +155, the draw at +270 and Manchester City at +150. With the book’s 6.2% margin taken out, that is 36.9% for Liverpool, 25.4% for the draw and 37.6% for City. Our number gives Liverpool 33.8%, the draw 25.5% and City 40.8%.

An outcome is a bet when our chance is 5 points or more above the market’s. City are 3.2 points above, the draw 0.1 and Liverpool 3.1 below. Nothing clears, so this is a pass.

How the number is built

The method in one clause: each side’s expected goals are its scoring rate at the venue times the opponent’s conceding rate at the other venue, each measured against the league average, and a Poisson count of goals turns the two figures into home, draw and away.

Both numbers come from the 2025-26 Premier League. Liverpool have played 2 home games this season and City 2 away games, short of the 6 the method needs, so each side takes last season’s record at the same venue. The averages are last season’s too: 1.53 goals a game for the home side and 1.22 for the visitor, over 380 games.

Liverpool went 10-6-3 at home last season, wins first, scoring 1.79 a game and conceding 1.05. That is 1.17 times the home scoring rate and 0.86 times the conceding rate. City went 9-6-4 away, scoring 1.68 and conceding 1.11, which is 1.38 times the visitor’s scoring rate and 0.72 times the home side’s. Multiplied out, Liverpool’s expected goals are 1.3 and City’s 1.45.

The table, this season and last

Five games in, Manchester City are top of 20 with 15 points from five wins, 13 scored and 5 conceded. Liverpool are 6th with 9 points, 2-3-0, and have drawn both home games. Last season City finished 2nd with 78 points and Liverpool 5th with 60.

This season points the same way as the lean, only further. City are 2-0-0 away with 5 scored and 1 conceded. Liverpool’s two home draws produced 2 goals for and 2 against. Two games at a venue prove nothing, and the method does not use them.

Pick: no bet

No bet on the result. The widest gap is 3.2 points, on Manchester City, against a 5-point threshold.

Prices were read on 8 October 2026 at 07:40 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN.

What changes it

A longer price. Manchester City become a bet at +163 or longer, Liverpool at +227 or longer and the draw at +360 or longer, each at today’s margin.

A price is only one of the unknowns. This page states nothing about either lineup on 11 October. Check the team news before you bet.

The total and the last meetings

The total is 3.5 goals, over +135 and under -180. With the margin out, the market makes the over 39.8%. Our Poisson count gives 29.6%, which puts the under 10.2 points above the market. The total is reference only: the method bets the result, never the goals.

City won the last three meetings ESPN holds, 4-0 at home on 4 April 2026, 2-1 at Liverpool on 8 February 2026 and 3-0 at home on 9 November 2025. They are not in the method.

Manchester City at Liverpool, English Premier League, Sunday 11 October, 11:30 AM ET, Anfield, Liverpool. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 8 October 2026, 07:40 UTC. Results and tables: ESPN, read 8 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.