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Schalke 04 vs SC Freiburg Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Keylor SantosUpdated 8 Oct 2026
BundesligaSun 11 Oct
Schalke 04
at
SC Freiburg
SpreadTotalMoneyS04+0.5U 2.5+380SCF-0.5O 2.5-160

No bet on Schalke 04 at SC Freiburg. Schalke have 2 away games this season, fewer than the 6 the method needs, and no away record of 4 games or more from last season in this league.

DraftKings prices SC Freiburg at -160, the draw at +280 and Schalke 04 at +380. With the book’s 8.7% margin taken out, that is 56.6% for Freiburg, 24.2% for the draw and 19.2% for Schalke. There is no number of ours to set against it, so there is no gap and no bet.

Why there is no number

The method in one clause: each side’s expected goals are the league’s average goals at that venue, scaled by the side’s scoring rate at its venue and the opponent’s conceding rate at the other, each relative to that average. A side’s record at its venue this season is used from 6 games. With fewer this season, it takes last season’s rates at the same venue instead.

Freiburg pass that test through last season: 2 home games this season, 17 in 2025-26, where they went 9-5-3 and scored 1.94 a game. Schalke do not. They have played 2 Bundesliga away games this season, and they are not in ESPN’s 2025-26 Bundesliga table, so there is no previous season to fall back on. A rate from two games would price a side on almost nothing, and the method does not do it.

SC Freiburg at home and Schalke 04 awaySC Freiburg at home and Schalke 04 away, this season and lastSC Freiburg at home, 2026-27 German Bundesliga2-0-0 in 2scored 4.50 a gameconceded 0.50 a gameSC Freiburg at home, 2025-26 German Bundesliga9-5-3 in 17scored 1.94 a gameconceded 1.29 a gameSchalke 04 away, 2026-27 German Bundesliga1-0-1 in 2scored 1.50 a gameconceded 2.00 a gameRecord is wins-draws-losses in league games. Our number uses this season at the venue from six games; below that, last season.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026.

The table, this season and last

Four games into 2026-27, Freiburg are third of 18 with 10 points, from 3 wins and a draw, 12 scored and 3 allowed. At home they are 2-0-0, with 9 scored and 1 allowed. Schalke are eleventh with 5 points: 1-0-1 away, 3 scored and 4 allowed. Freiburg finished 2025-26 seventh with 47 points from 34 games.

SC Freiburg and Schalke 04 in the tableLeague position and points per game, this season and lastSC Freiburg2026-27 German Bundesliga3 of 18, 10 pts in 42025-26 German Bundesliga7 of 18, 47 pts in 34Schalke 042026-27 German Bundesliga11 of 18, 5 pts in 42025-26 German Bundesliganot in this leagueThree points for a win, one for a draw.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026.

Those four games are all the method has for Schalke, and four games say little about either side. Freiburg’s 4.50 goals a game at home this season comes from two games; last season’s full home record was 1.94.

Pick: no bet

No bet on the result, at any of the posted prices. The reason is the sample, not the price.

What changes it is Schalke’s sixth Bundesliga away game. Once they have played 6, their own rates count, and the method gives a number to set against the price. This page states nothing about either lineup.

The total and the last meetings

The total is 2.5 goals, over -175 and under +130. With no expected goals for Schalke there is no number for the total either, and it is never a bet on this method.

Last meetings of SC Freiburg and Schalke 04SC Freiburg and Schalke 04: the last meetings ESPN holds23 Apr 2023SC Freiburg 4-0 Schalke 0430 Oct 2022Schalke 04 0-2 SC Freiburg17 Apr 2021SC Freiburg 4-0 Schalke 0416 Dec 2020Schalke 04 0-2 SC Freiburg27 Jun 2020SC Freiburg 4-0 Schalke 04Home side first. All competitions ESPN lists for the pair.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026.

The last five meetings ESPN holds run from June 2020 to April 2023. Freiburg won all five without conceding, three of them 4-0 at Freiburg. The method does not use them.

Schalke 04 at SC Freiburg, German Bundesliga, Sunday 11 October, 11:30 AM ET, Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 8 October 2026, 07:40 UTC. Results and tables: ESPN, read 8 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.