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Venezia vs Atalanta Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Keylor SantosUpdated 9 Oct 2026
Serie AMon 12 Oct
Venezia
at
Atalanta
SpreadTotalMoneyVEN+0.5U 3.5+450ATA-0.5O 3.5-185

No bet on Venezia at Atalanta. Venezia have 2 away games this season, fewer than the 6 the method needs, and no away record of 4 games or more from last season in this league.

DraftKings has Atalanta at -185, the draw at +300 and Venezia at +450. With the book’s 8.1% margin taken out, that is 60.1% for Atalanta, 23.1% for the draw and 16.8% for Venezia. We have no number to set against it, so there is no gap to measure.

Why there is no number

The method in one clause: each side’s expected goals are its scoring rate at the venue times the opponent’s conceding rate at the other venue, each measured against the league average, and a Poisson count of goals turns the two figures into home, draw and away chances. It uses a side’s record at the venue this season from 6 games.

When a side has fewer than 6 this season, the method takes its record at the same venue from last season. Venezia have neither. They have 2 away games in 2026-27, and they do not appear in ESPN’s 2025-26 Serie A table, so there is no away record to borrow. Atalanta have 3 home games this season and would take their 19-game home record from 2025-26.

That home record was 9-6-4, wins first, with 1.32 scored and 0.79 conceded a game. This season Atalanta are 2-0-1 at home, with 4 scored and 3 conceded. Venezia are 0-0-2 away, with 2 scored and 5 conceded.

Atalanta at home and Venezia awayAtalanta at home and Venezia away, this season and lastAtalanta at home, 2026-27 Italian Serie A2-0-1 in 3scored 1.33 a gameconceded 1.00 a gameAtalanta at home, 2025-26 Italian Serie A9-6-4 in 19scored 1.32 a gameconceded 0.79 a gameVenezia away, 2026-27 Italian Serie A0-0-2 in 2scored 1.00 a gameconceded 2.50 a gameRecord is wins-draws-losses in league games. Our number uses this season at the venue from six games; below that, last season.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 9 October 2026.

The table, this season and last

Five games in, Atalanta are 11th of 20 with 6 points, 2-0-3, with 5 scored and 7 conceded. Venezia are 20th with no points, 0-0-5, with 4 scored and 13 conceded. Last season Atalanta finished 7th with 59 points from 38 games.

Atalanta and Venezia in the tableLeague position and points per game, this season and lastAtalanta2026-27 Italian Serie A11 of 20, 6 pts in 52025-26 Italian Serie A7 of 20, 59 pts in 38Venezia2026-27 Italian Serie A20 of 20, 0 pts in 52025-26 Italian Serie Anot in this leagueThree points for a win, one for a draw.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 9 October 2026.

Atalanta’s three defeats this season include both away games, 0-0-2 with 1 goal scored. Their 2025-26 away record was 6-8-5, and they lost 9 league games all season. Five games are too few to say which of those seasons this one resembles.

Pick: no bet

No bet on the result. Venezia have 2 away games and no earlier Serie A away record in ESPN’s tables, four short of the 6 the method needs.

Prices were read on 9 October 2026 at 17:12 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. They do not change the call.

What changes it

Four more Venezia away games. With 6 away this season, the method runs, but that cannot happen before this game is played.

This page states nothing about either lineup on 12 October. Check the team news before you bet.

The total and the last meetings

The total is 3.5 goals, over +135 and under -170. With the margin out, that prices the over at 40.3%. None of Atalanta’s 5 games this season went over 3.5, and 2 of Venezia’s 5 did. We have no Poisson count for this game, and the total is never a bet on these pages.

Venezia have not beaten Atalanta in the last five meetings ESPN holds: Atalanta won four and one was drawn, the latest 0-0 at Atalanta on 1 March 2025. They are not in the method.

Last meetings of Atalanta and VeneziaAtalanta and Venezia: the last meetings ESPN holds1 Mar 2025Atalanta 0-0 Venezia20 Oct 2024Venezia 0-2 Atalanta23 Apr 2022Venezia 1-3 Atalanta12 Jan 2022Atalanta 2-0 Venezia30 Nov 2021Atalanta 4-0 VeneziaHome side first. All competitions ESPN lists for the pair.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 9 October 2026.

Venezia at Atalanta, Italian Serie A, Monday 12 October, 12:30 PM ET, New Balance Arena, Bergamo. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 9 October 2026, 17:12 UTC. Results and tables: ESPN, read 9 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.