Udinese vs Torino Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Bet Udinese at +205. The bet holds down to +131.

DraftKings has Torino at +130, the draw at +215 and Udinese at +205. With the book’s margin of 8.0% taken out, that is 40.3% for Torino, 29.4% for the draw and 30.4% for Udinese. Our number gives Torino 32.7%, the draw 22.1% and Udinese 45.2%.

The gap on Udinese is 14.8 points. Torino sit 7.6 points below the market and the draw 7.3 below. An outcome is a bet when our chance is 5 points or more above the market’s, and the widest gap wins. Udinese clear it by 9.8 points.

A gap of 14.8 points is wide, and it should be read for what it is. Our number knows goal rates and nothing else: what each side scored and conceded at the venue last season, set against that season’s league averages. The market prices things the number does not see. This page cannot say which of those things the market is pricing here, and it does not guess.

How the number is built

The method in one clause: each side’s expected goals are the league’s average at that venue times the side’s scoring rate there times the opponent’s conceding rate at the other venue, both against the league average, and a Poisson distribution, the standard count model for goals, turns the two figures into home, draw and away chances.

Both sides’ rates come from last season. Torino have played 2 home games in Serie A this season and Udinese 2 away, fewer than the 6 the method needs, so each side’s figure is its 2025-26 record at the venue, against the 2025-26 league averages: 1.28 goals a game for the home side and 1.15 for the away side. No game from 2026-27 is in the number.

Torino at home in 2025-26 went 8-4-7 (wins, draws, losses) over 19 games, scoring 1.42 a game and conceding 1.53. Udinese away went 8-3-8 over 19, scoring 1.42 and conceding 1.42.

Against the averages, Torino scored at 1.11 times the league rate at home and Udinese conceded at 1.11 times it away. That gives Torino 1.58 expected goals. Udinese scored at 1.24 times the rate away and Torino conceded at 1.33 times it at home, which gives Udinese 1.89.

The figure that carries the number is Torino’s home defence last season: 29 goals conceded in 19 games, against 27 scored by Udinese in their 19 away.

The table, this season and last

After five games of 2026-27, the two sides are level on 4 points, each from 1-1-3. Udinese are 13th of 20 with 8 scored and 11 conceded. Torino are 14th with 5 scored and 8 conceded. Last season Udinese finished 10th with 50 points and Torino 12th with 45.

The case against the bet is the price itself. The market makes Torino the favourite at 40.3%, and last season Torino won 8 of 19 at home and lost 7. Udinese lost 8 of their 19 away. This season Torino have lost both home games, scoring 1 and conceding 4, and Udinese are 1-0-1 away with 6 scored and 7 conceded. Four games at the venue between them prove nothing, so the number rests on the 38 games of last season.

Pick: Udinese +205

Udinese to win at +205. With the margin at 8.0%, Udinese stay a bet down to +131. Shorter than that, our 45.2% is less than 5 points above the market’s and it is a pass.

What changes it

The price. Udinese shorter than +131 ends the bet. Torino would need +235 or longer to become one, and the draw +442 or longer. Those lines assume the book’s margin stays where it is.

The lineups. This page states nothing about who is available for either side on 12 October. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total

The line is 2.5 goals, over +110 and under -140. The market, margin removed, has the over at 44.9% and the under at 55.1%. Our number puts the over at 67.3% and the under at 32.7%, 22.4 points higher on the over. That is the widest gap on the page, and it comes from the same goal rates as the result. The total is reference only: the method bets the result, never the total.

Three of Torino’s 5 league games this season went over 2.5 goals, and 3 of Udinese’s 5. Last season it was 24 of 38 for Torino and 17 of 38 for Udinese.

The last meetings

ESPN lists five meetings since March 2024. Torino won 2-0 at Udinese on 16 March 2024 and 2-0 at home on 23 April 2025, and the sides drew 2-2 at Udinese on 29 December 2024. Udinese won the last two: 2-1 at Torino on 7 January 2026 and 2-0 at home on 2 May 2026. The method does not use any of them.

Udinese at Torino, Italian Serie A, Monday 12 October, 2:45 PM ET, Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Torino. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 10 October 2026, 19:39 UTC. Results and tables: ESPN, read 10 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.