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Week 16 feels like it’s already Playoff time as NFL teams are scrambling to secure a postseason berth. This week has a number of massive showdowns that can impact the Playoff seeding. Additionally, there are a handful of clunkers that look juicy for our Week 16 NFL parlay card.
Last week, we went 3-1 with our parlay picks. The AFC South was kind to us as they helped us go 2-0 with victories by the Jaguars and Texans. The Broncos were our upset pick of Week 15, and they made us look like geniuses. Unfortunately, Carolina crashed and burned last weekend and killed our parlay card.
After looking at the Week 16 slate of games, we have a handful of NFL picks to add to our upcoming parlay card. We’ve got three picks that feature large lines from Super Bowl hopefuls and a team that’s being overlooked during the final month of the season. However, there are no Underdogs this week as we are looking for a guaranteed win and not risky wagers at the top sports betting sites.
The Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions are all large favorites looking to cement their Playoff positions. The Minnesota Vikings proved in Dallas last weekend, that they’re still trying to win despite being eliminated from the Playoffs already.
With that said, NFL betting can be tricky at times. Fortunately, NFL parlays are one way to maximize betting value when the boards seem difficult to decipher. Let’s take a closer look at the best NFL parlays for Week 16.
NFL Picks and Parlays
| Team | Odds | Payout Per Leg |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | -550 | $18.18 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -300 | $57.57 |
| Detroit lions | -320 | $106.81 |
| Minnesota Vikings | -155 | $240.24 |
This week, we’re taking four NFL teams that are favored. Heading into Week 16, Favorites are 152-71-1, which is a 68.2% winning percentage. Three of our four parlay picks are road favorites this weekend. On the season, Away Favorites are 61-31-1 which is a 65.6% winning rate.
Of our Week 16 NFL parlay picks, only the Detroit Lions are a Home Favorite. Teams that are listed as odds-on favorites at home have a 91-40 record, which is a 69.5% winning rate. That’s the highest mark in all of the Win-Loss trends.
Over the last seven weeks, we’ve gone 20-8 in our NFL parlay picks, which led to a winning ticket (4-0) in Week 11 and four 3-1 records for Weeks 9, 10, 12, and 15. Weeks 13 and 14 were a 2-2 split. We’ve not had a losing record for parlay picks all season long.
With that said, make sure you continue to monitor the NFL odds throughout the week as they could shift as we get closer to kickoff, which will impact your total payout for this parlay card. For more NFL advice and picks, check out the best handicapping membership in the industry.
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NFL Parlay Picks
The following is our best parlay NFL picks for Week 16:
NFL Parlay Pick 1: Buffalo Bills (-550) vs. Cleveland Browns
The I-90 series pits the 10-4 Buffalo Bills against the 3-11 Cleveland Browns. For those of us that grew up in Western New York during the 80s, this was a huge rivalry. Unfortunately, for two great fan bases, this game has little importance other than for Buffalo to lock in a Playoff spot. The Browns are playing for next year in regards to Sanders’ evaluation.
Buffalo has won four of their last five games, which includes three victories in a row. The Browns have dropped three in a row, where two of those losses were blowouts.
Last week, Cleveland was blown out by the Bears 31 to 3. It was a step back considering Sanders’ performance two weeks ago against the Titans. He will now face the no.2 pass defense in Buffalo that allows 169 ypg. Cleveland’s pass defense is a half yard better and ranked no.1.
With that said, Chicago’s Caleb Williams put up 242 passing yards against the Browns defense. I expect Josh Allen to light up this defense as Buffalo puts it into another gear for the postseason.
Allen and the Bills have one of the best offenses as they’re no.3 in scoring (29.4 ppg), no.3 in yards (381.2 ypg), and no.1 in rushing (158.5 ypg). The Browns give up 23.7 ppg and 110.1 rushing ypg. These both bode well for Buffalo.
The Bills are 5-2 SU in their last seven games against the Browns and 5-1-1 ATS over that span. Take Buffalo to win this game outright and continue their push towards a top seed in the AFC Playoffs.
NFL Parlay Pick 2: Philadelphia Eagles (-300) vs. Washington Commanders
Like with the Bills vs. Browns matchup, the Philadelphia Eagles are on the road trying to lock up a Playoff position against a team that has nothing to play for.
Philly snapped their three-game losing streak by demolishing the Las Vegas Raiders 31-0 at home. The win restored confidence to the franchise as they try to find their Super Bowl identity from last year.
Washington also won last weekend, which snapped an eight-game losing streak. They’re only 2-4 at home and have also been a doormat to the Eagles in recent years.
Philly is 6-2 SU in their last eight trips to Washington and 4-1 SU in their last five overall games.
The Eagles have favorable matchups in this contest. Their struggling rushing attack will face the 5th worse run defense that gives up 136.3 ypg. Washington’s pass defense is the 4th worst as they allow 246.3 ypg.
Look for Jalen Hurts to find his receivers Brown and Smith, while Barkley finds running lanes and the Eagles win by at least a touchdown. The Commanders are 1-7 ATS in their last eight NFC games and 2-7 ATS in their last nine overall games. Philly is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games.
NFL Parlay Pick 3: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Detroit lions (-320)
Both teams come into this matchup with identical 8-6 records. However, there’s a huge difference in where they sit in their respective conferences and divisions.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have won two games in a row and now sit a game ahead of the Ravens in the AFC North standings. However, Pittsburgh has the tie breaker over Baltimore after beating them two weeks ago, which gives them a little more of a buffer at the top of the division.
The Detroit Lions keep alternating between wins and losses, which currently puts them 3rd in the NFC North and 8th in the NFC standings. Yet, they’re 1 ½ games behind the 7th seeded Packers who have already swept Detroit this season. Additionally, the 6th seeded 49ers are two games ahead of the Lions.
With only three weeks left, we could possibly see one of the preseason favorites in the NFC not make the Playoffs. That would be crazy!
With that said, I do think the Lions are going to play this game like it’s a Playoff contest. And, since they’re at home, their fans will cheer them to a victory.
Surprisingly, Pittsburgh is 5-0-1 SU against the Detroit in the last six meetings. And, they’re 4-2 SU in their last six trips to Motown.
Despite the trends favoring Pittsburgh this week, I like the Lions in this exciting matchup. Detroit is 5-0 SU following a loss. They’re coming off a defeat in Week 15 against the Rams. Pittsburgh is 3-4 SU following a win, which they beat the Dolphins last week.
The Lions are 5-2 SU at home this season, while the Steelers are just 3-3 SU on the road which doesn’t include the neutral site game played in Dublin, Ireland.
I see Detroit’s offense leading the Lions to a much-needed victory. Detroit has the no.1 scoring offense at 30.6 ppg, while the Steelers allow 23.3 ppg. Detroit also has the no.5 rushing attack (131.1 ypg) and the no.3 passing attack (248.8 ypg). Pittsburgh gives up 120.9 rushing ypg (19th) and 242.4 passing ypg (27th).
Look for Jared Goff to have a big game throwing the ball and the Lions’ ground attack to maul this Steelers defense.
NFL Parlay Pick 4: Minnesota Vikings (-155) vs. New York Giants
Both of these teams have already been eliminated from making the Playoffs. However, that’s the only similarities between these franchises with three games to go.
Where the Minnesota Vikings are still fighting for their coach and trying to win games, the New York Giants are a hot mess. Injuries robbed this offense of two great weapons and an incompetent front office robbed this team of a head coach and defensive coordinator.
The Giants sit 2-12 on the season and are now considering tanking so that they can get a higher draft pick and some much-needed talent.
The Vikings upset Dallas on SNF last weekend to put the Cowboys’ Playoff hopes on life support. And, Minnesota did this on the road after already learning of their elimination prior to the game.
Instead of playing uninspiring football, this team went out and beat a desperate Dallas team. I think Minnesota carries that momentum and hunger over to this Week 16 matchup. I’m actually doubling down on this belief as I start J.J. McCarthy in my Semifinal game for the Fantasy Football Playoffs.
The Vikings are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in their last six games against the Giants. New York is an abysmal 3-12 SU in their last 15 home games and 1-9 SU against the NFC this season, which includes six conference losses in a row.
Furthermore, the Vikings are 3-3 SU in road games and 3-3 SU as the favorite, while the Giants are 2-11 SU as the underdog and 2-3 SU as the home dog.
I think Minnesota’s offense will benefit from playing against a bad New York defense that gives up 28.3 ppg (29th) and 3.2 TDs per game (29th). In particular, the Vikings’ passing attack will face the no.23 pass defense that allows 228.9 ypg.
You can also expect the duo of Mason and Jones to feast on the second worse run defense. New York gives up 153.6 ypg on the ground.
As much as I like Jaxson Dart, I think Minnesota’s aggressive blitz schemes will cause problems for the rookie QB. The Vikings have the 5th best sack rate in the league.
Take Minnesota to win this game outright, cover the spread, and inch one step closer to .500 on the season.
NFL Parlay Total Payout
- Buffalo Bills (-550)
- Philadelphia Eagles (-300)
- Detroit lions (-320)
- Minnesota Vikings (-155)
The Buffalo Bills are not only playing for their Playoff lives over the next three weeks, but they’re also trying to chase down the Patriots. The Browns will be nothing more than a speedbump for the Bills stampede this weekend.
The Eagles face a wounded and hopeless divisional foe in Washington. I see Philly soaring to a win. The Lions should protect their den as they upstage the streaking Steelers to get back into Wild Card contention. Lastly, McCarthy and the Vikings are playing for a winning record and I see them destroying the Giants.
If you take all four legs of this NFL parlay card, then you would score a $240.24 payout. That’s almost a 2.5x on your initial investment.
Remember, to wager on this parlay card, you will need to check out the best sports betting sites and take advantage of any optimal lines, which means some line shopping could be greatly beneficial.
If you are loving these NFL parlay picks, then check out our College Football parlays of the week and double down on this weekend’s gridiron action.
