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The NFL Playoffs have taken one step closer to reaching the biggest game of the year – Super Bowl 60. The Divisional Round provided plenty of drama as two of the four games went to Overtime. While we also had controversial officiating and a disappointing injury or two, the Conference Championship Round is set to punctuate a stellar month of gridiron action.
In the AFC Championship, the Denver Broncos host the New England Patriots. Over on the NFC side, the Seattle Seahawks will host the Los Angeles Rams in a rivalry game for the third time this season.
We fell short in our Divisional Round parlay last weekend as not only did the officials rob the Buffalo Bills of a win, but they also stole a parlay-card victory for us, as well. We went 2-1 and narrowly missed a 3x parlay ticket.
This weekend, there are only two games but we still have a few NFL picks to stack into a multi-leg parlay card for the Conference Championships.
The biggest appeal is a one-score contest in Denver as the Broncos roll out their backup quarterback against an impressive New England team that has steamrolled their competition through the first two round of the Playoffs.
With that said, we’re staying away from Underdogs this weekend, as it appears that the favorites are lining up for a run at the Super Bowl.
NFL betting can be tricky at times. Fortunately, NFL parlays are one way to maximize betting value when the top sports betting sites seem difficult to decipher. Let’s take a closer look at the best NFL parlays for the Conference Championships.
NFL Picks and Parlays
| Team | Odds | Payout Per Leg |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | -250 | $40.00 |
| Patriots-Broncos Under 42.5 | -110 | $167.27 |
| Seattle Seahawks | -150 | $345.45 |
This week, we’re taking two NFL teams that are favored and doubling up on the AFC Title game. Heading into the Conference Championships, Favorites are 184-97-1, which is a 65.5% winning rate. Favorites went 4-0 SU in the Divisional Round.
The Patriots are the road team this weekend and Away Teams are 130-151-1 this year, 46.1% winning rate. Road teams went 1-3 in the Divisional Round.
The Seahawks are our home pick. Home Teams went 151-130-1 with a 53.5% winning rate on the season so far. The Home Teams went 3-1 last weekend, with the Bears being the lone losers at home.
Over the last few months, we’ve gone 35-13 in our NFL parlay picks, which led to winning tickets (4-0) in the Wild Card Round and Week 11, five 3-1 records for Weeks 9, 10, 12, 15, 16, and 18, and two 2-2 splits for Weeks 13 and 14. Week 17 saw a 3-2 finish on a larger parlay ticket. The Divisional Round saw a 2-1 record.
As we head deeper into the Playoffs, we haven’t had a losing record with our parlay picks in any given week of action. And, cleaning up a $400+ parlay ticket to start the Playoffs had us feeling great heading into the Divisional Round. Unfortunately, the refs screwed us out of a second-straight winning parlay ticket.
With that said, make sure you continue to monitor the NFL odds throughout the week as they could shift as we get closer to kickoff, which will impact your total payout for this parlay card. For more NFL advice and picks, check out the best handicapping membership in the industry.
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NFL Parlay Picks
The following is our best parlay NFL picks for the Conference Championship Round:
NFL Parlay Pick #1: New England Patriots (-250) vs. Denver Broncos
These two teams tied for the best record in the AFC. In fact, they tied with Seattle for the best record in the NFL. So, it’s fitting that they play each other to see who is the best. Unfortunately, this won’t be a true test of Denver’s greatness because Bo Nix is out. The Broncos will play with backup QB Jarrett Stidham, who was originally drafted by the New England Patriots.
With that said, this Patriots defense was already going to be tough for Bo Nix. Now, they will be nearly unbeatable for Stidham. While the backup QB isn’t terrible, there’s a reason why he’s been on three different teams in his young career. And, we’ll see those reasons come to fruition in this AFC Title game.
For as great as Denver’s defense has been, and praised, New England’s is just as good. The Patriot’s defense is 3rd in scoring (17.8 ppg), 6th in yards allowed (287.7 ypg), 5th against the run (98.1 ypg), and 7th against the pass (189.6 ypg).
In comparison, the Broncos defense is 4th in scoring (18.9 ppg), 5th in yards allowed (287.7 ypg), 4th against the run (96.2 ypg), and 9th against the pass (191.6 ypg). As you can see, these defenses are almost identical.
So, now put that New England defense up against Stidham and you have to like New England’s chances of winning. In fact, I think 4.5 points is low and would ride the Patriots to cover that spread.
New England beat Houston by 12 points in the Divisional Round and defeated the Chargers by 13 in the Wild Card Round. Their defense is legit and Denver’s offense is going to struggle.
On the flip side, the Patriots’ offense has been solid in the postseason. Drake Maye is playing like an NFL MVP and I see that continuing this weekend, as well. Buffalo exposed this Denver defense and I expect Maye and company to do the same.
NFL Parlay Pick #2: Patriots vs. Broncos Under 42.5 Points
Sticking with the AFC Championship, I like the Under in this one. While the Over has hit more in this rivalry and for each team in recent months, the loss of Nix is going to impact this matchup which is shaping up to be a defensive ballgame.
Combined, these two teams allow 36.6 total points per game. And, yet, the Patriots have bettered their scoring average from the regular season by allowing only 19 total points in the Playoffs. They also did that against CJ Stroud’s Texans and Justin Herbert’s Chargers. New England is allowing 9.5 ppg and 224 ypg this postseason. That doesn’t bode well for Denver and a backup QB.
The Patriots are going to get their points but I don’t see Denver scoring as many. This should be a 24-14 game or something along those lines.
Mike Vrable is going to get this defense fired up and they will stifle Denver’s offense en route to a spot in the Super Bowl.
NFL Parlay Pick #3: Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks (-150)
The Seattle Seahawks hold a slight lead in this rivalry with a 29-28 series record. Now, the Rams have owned this rivalry in recent years by going 12-6 SU, 9-2 ATS, and 6-0 ATS at Seattle. These numbers are hard to ignore.
Yet, if you look at how the two games went this year, Seattle should’ve won both. The Seahawks lost the first game 21-19 despite Sam Darnold throwing four interceptions. They almost won that game but missed a long field goal as time expired. Then, in the second matchup, Seattle won 38-37 in OT.
These two teams are evenly matched. However, you have to like Seattle’s advantage at home. Additionally, this team looks to have found their stride. Since their OT win over the Rams, the Seahawks have allowed only 19 total points in three games. And, all three of those games were against high-caliber teams.
They crushed the Panthers, who the Rams almost lost to in the Wild Card Round and did during the regular season, and they destroyed the 49ers two weeks in a row. In fact, their 41-6 win over San Francisco in the Divisional Round was a statement win. And, that statement is the fact that they’re the best team in the NFL this year.
LA’s offense is going to get their yards and points. However, when it comes down to a defense making one play to win this game, you have to like Seattle in this scenario.
The Rams’ defense is a liability this postseason as LA was very fortunate to win both of their Playoff games. They gave up 414 yards and 17 points against the Bears, but won by three. LA gave up 333 yards and 31 points to the Panthers, but won 34-31.
Seattle’s offense is 2nd in scoring (29.1 ypg), 7th in total yards (347.4 ypg), 7th in rushing (126.2 ypg), and 13th in passing (221.3 ypg). But don’t let that passing number scare you because Darnold has put up big numbers on the Rams this year. In two games, he led the Seattle offense to 274.5 passing ypg, 414 total ypg, and 28.5 ppg.
If Caleb Williams can pass for 257 yards and Bryce Young can throw for 264 yards, then Darnold is going to at least get to 275 yards this weekend. Add in some Kenneth Walker III on the ground, who averaged 83.5 ypg on the ground versus the Rams this year, and you have an offense that is going to plow through LA’s defense.
Take the Seahawks offense to match pace and points with the Rams, but for Seattle’s defense to make the game-winning plays when it counts. Keep in mind, Seattle’s defense is gives up the fewest points (16.6 ppg), allows the third fewest total yards (282.8 ypg), allows the second fewest rushing yards (92.6 ypg), and gives up the eighth fewest passing yards (190.3 ypg).
NFL Parlay Total Payout
- New England Patriots (-250)
- Patriots-Broncos Total Under 42.5 (-110)
- Seattle Seahawks (-150)
As you can see above, I really like the Patriots to win the AFC Championship. While I am the last person you would mistake as a New England fan, I can’t help but be impressed with what Mike Vrabel has done with this team.
Defensively, the Patriots are just as good as Denver’s highly touted defense. Yet, New England’s defense has put it into another gear as they’ve given up just 19 total points in two Playoff games while making starting QBs look silly.
Now, they face a backup QB who they got rid of a few years ago. This smells like a double-digit win for the Patriots.
As for the NFC Championship, it will be a thrilling game as these two NFC West rivals have played two exciting matchups this year already. However, you have to like how well Seattle’s defense is playing over the last month.
This unit has also stepped it up a notch, just like the Patriots have. Seattle’s defense ranks in the Top 5 for most major categories and can stop both the run and pass, while also being stout in the Red Zone and on Third Downs. Matthew Stafford might be the MVP this year, but this Seattle defense will be the difference maker.
If you take all three legs of this NFL Playoff parlay card, then you would score a $345.45 payout. That’s a 3.5x on your investment.
Remember, to wager on this parlay card, you will need to check out the best sports betting sites and take advantage of any optimal lines, which means some line shopping could be greatly beneficial.
