Ramon Cardenas vs. Naoya Inoue Odds and Predictions

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On Sunday, May 4, one of boxing’s pound-for-pound best fighters returns to action as the undisputed junior featherweight champ Naoya Inoue defends his crown against Ramon Cardenas.

Not only is Inoue making his in-ring return, but he’s also fighting for the first time in the United States since 2021. Inoue vs. Cardenas will emanate from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, and stream live on ESPN+.

Inoue (29-0, 26 KOs) is on a historic run over the last handful of years and looks to extend that streak with a victory this weekend.

Cardenas (26-1, 14 KOs) is on a 14-fight winning streak, which helped him earn his first world title opportunity. Unfortunately, it comes against one of the best fighters in the sport today.

The Inoue vs. Cardenas fight caps off an incredible weekend of boxing action. On Friday, May 2, Ryan Garcia headlines a card from Times Square as he takes on Rolly Romero. Both Devin Haney and Teofimo Lopez Jr. have bouts on that undercard.

Then, on Saturday, May 3, the sport’s most popular fighter Canelo Alvarez heads to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, to battle William Scull.

Let’s take a look at the latest Ramon Cardenas vs. Naoya Inoue odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our Naoya Inoue vs. Ramon Cardenas. predictions.

Naoya Inoue vs. Ramon Cardenas Preview

Check out the latest Naoya Inoue vs. Ramon Cardenas tale of the tape:

Naoya Inoue Recent Fights

Sometimes, you run out of superlatives to describe what Naoya Inoue has accomplished in his career. So, let’s try to focus on some of the numbers to emphasize why he’s one of the top three best fighters in the sport of boxing today.

In 24 world title fights, Inoue boasts of an amazing 24-0 record with 22 knockouts. He has 26 KOs in 29 pro fights. His first world title bout came in 2014, when he KO’d Adrian Hernandez and captured the WBC light flyweight championship.

Since then, he’s gone on to win two undisputed crowns and is the king of the super bantamweight division as of now.

His last fight came in January 2025, when he crushed replacement fighter Ye Joon Kim via 4^th round KO. That win came four months after he stopped TJ Doheny via 7^th round TKO.

The Luis Nery fight in May 2024, also showed us that Inoue can overcome any adversity as he suffered a “knockdown” in the opening frame but would go on to win via 6^th round TKO.

The list of accomplishments go on and on. He scored TKO/KO wins over Marlon Tapales and Stephen Fulton in 2023.

2022 saw Inoue take out both Paul Butler and Nonito Donaire. The Donaire fight was Inoue’s second win over the future HOF boxer. He stopped him in the 2^nd round.

Their first bout took place in November 2019. Inoue won via decision. Donaire is the last man to go the distance with Inoue. Since then, “Monster” has won 10 fights in a row via TKO/KO.

As for his upcoming about against Ramon Cardenas, Inoue made the following respectful comments:

“I am thankful to the fans in America who have followed my career. Fighting at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas is another career highlight, and I look forward to putting on a great show for everyone in attendance. Cardenas is a tough opponent who I respect for accepting the fight without hesitation.”

Naoya Inoue Odds

Inoue opened as a -8000 betting favorite for this upcoming bout against Cardenas. His odds currently sit in a range of -10000 to -4000. Looking over his betting data, Inoue hasn’t been listed as an underdog. It’s going to be a long time before we ever see him as the underdog, if ever.

Ramon Cardenas Recent Fights

As mentioned above, Ramon Cardenas has won 14 fights in a row. Many of his opponents are unknown commodities to the average fan. In fact, they’re not much to brag about over the majority of his career.

Nevertheless, he has seen some tougher competition over the last few years and answered the challenge each time.

Most recently, Cardenas defeated the unbeaten Bryan Acosta in February. Following the fight, he called out Inoue.

Eventually, Cardenas got what he wished for. And, though he doesn’t call it a lottery ticket, although most of us do, Cardenas is definitely appreciative of the opportunity:

“This means the world to me. I’ve always aspired to fight for a world title, but to get a chance to fight for all the belts is a dream come true. I always knew our paths would cross. I never had any doubts. When the fight was offered, I instantly accepted. I wouldn’t say it’s a lottery ticket, but you can’t turn it down if you get a chance at the undisputed title. This is the opportunity of a lifetime.”

Prior to the Acosta fight, Cardenas stopped Israel Rodriguez Picazo in in February 2024. Picazo was forced to quit after suffering a broken jaw. He then fought Jesus Ramirez Rubio a few months later and won via 9^th round KO.

One more note, Cardenas has never fought in a 12-round professional bout before.

Ramon Cardenas Odds

Cardenas opened as a +1600 underdog for this fight. His odds currently sit in a range of +1400 to +2000. In his limited betting data, we do see that Cardenas was the underdog in his fights against Israel Picazo and Rafael Pedroza as well. However, Cardenas was a -250 to -330 favorite in his most recent fight, which was three months ago versus Bryan Acosta.

Naoya Inoue vs. Ramon Cardenas Predictions

If you have watched Inoue at any moment over the last six to eight years, then you would know he is levels above Cardenas. I give the challenger all the respect in the world for stepping in with Monster, but he will be lucky to hit the Over in this fight.

There’s a reason why Inoue has a knockout rate hovering around 90%. That’s due to his incredible power, physicality, and overall skillset.

I don’t see a scenario where Cardenas survives this fight. The only question is when, not if he will be stopped.

Bet: Naoya Inoue (-10000)

The Best Naoya Inoue vs. Ramon Cardenas Prop Bets

The following Naoya Inoue vs. Ramon Cardenas prop bets are courtesy of BetUS:

Over/Under 5.5 rounds

• Over 5.5 (-115)
• Under 5.5 (-115)

I would put Cardenas closer to the level of Ye Joon Kim who Inoue stopped in the 4^th round. I don’t see Cardenas being close to the same level as recent Inoue opponents like Doheny, Nery, Tapales, Fulton, and Butler who all went Over 5.5 rounds.

I am taking the Under for this prop bet as I believe Inoue will be motivated to put on a show in Las Vegas.

Bet: Under 5.5 rounds (-115)

Will Fight go the distance?

• Yes (+550)
• No (-900)

This bout will absolutely not go the full 12 rounds. I don’t even see it crossing the halfway point of the fight.

Bet: No (-900)

Method of Victory

• Cardenas via TKO/KO/DQ (+2800)
• Cardenas via decision (+5000)
• Inoue via TKO/KO/DQ (-900)
• Inoue via decision (+550)
• Draw (+3300)

As you can see, Inoue winning via TKO/KO is the favorite for this prop bet. In fact, it’s a massive favorite compared to the other available options. I believe that Inoue will pick up the 27^th KO victory of his 30-fight pro career.

Bet: Inoue via TKO/KO/DQ (-900)

Betting on Rounds

• Either Winner in rounds 1-4 (+140)
• Either Winner in rounds 5-8 (+140)
• Either Winner in rounds 9-12 (+450)
• Fight To Go The Distance (+550)

This is an opportunity for us to hedge our bets. We took Under 5.5 rounds for the prop above. So, I like the betting option of rounds 5-8 for this one. I don’t see Cardenas flirting with the double-digit rounds at all. Taking this option gives us eight rounds to see Inoue work his magic.

Bet: Either Winner in rounds 5-8 (+140)

What’s Next For The Inoue vs. Cardenas Winner?

As of this writing, there is no official word as to who Inoue will fight next after this weekend’s bout. Yet, we do have some hints as to potential upcoming opponents.

There are reports circulating that Inoue could fight Murodjon Akhmadaliev in September. However, the one bout that we’re the most excited about will keep us waiting until next year.

In March, Inoue and Junto Nakatani verbally agreed to fight each other at Tokyo Dome next year. This “agreement” took place at the Japanese Boxing Awards a few months ago.

Both Japanese fighters are undefeated and on the pound-for-pound best list. It would be a historic fight not only for Japan, but for the sport of boxing as well.

The Naoya Inoue vs. Ramon Cardenas Card