2026 PGA Farmers Insurance Open Odds and Predictions

Torrey Pines is a long, exposed major-style test where the South Course does the separating on the weekend. The course rewards elite tee-to-green control and long par-4 scoring, with approach play from distance showing up as a consistent lever when conditions firm up. When the wind is present, patience and scrambling become part of the outright path, not just a bonus.

The PGA Tour odds board is shaped with a compact top tier and a busy midrange, which makes “price vs path” the only way to bet it. If you’re scanning top golf betting sites for golf picks this week, the best approach is to treat Torrey like a U.S. Open rehearsal and only buy numbers that match a realistic win script. There are pockets where the market is paying for recent headlines and pockets where the course fit is stronger than the price suggests (one bad stretch on the South can erase two good rounds fast). That’s where disciplined outrights and placement props can work together.

Where Is the Farmers Insurance Open Played?

The Farmers Insurance Open is played at Torrey Pines Golf Course in San Diego, California, with the South Course used for Rounds 3–4 and both the North and South in play for Rounds 1–2. The South Course is the primary separator because length and conditions can turn it into a par-value grind, putting a premium on SG:APP and long-hole par-4 scoring. Poa Annua greens add another layer, but the foundation is still tee-to-green execution and avoiding big numbers. The winning path is steady SG:APP plus enough putting to convert.

How To Watch the Farmers Insurance Open?

Thursday: 3–7 p.m. ET (Golf Channel). Friday: 3–5 p.m. ET (Golf Channel), 5–8 p.m. ET (CBS). Saturday: 2–4 p.m. ET (Golf Channel), 4–8 p.m. ET (CBS). Sunday: 2–4 p.m. ET (Golf Channel), 4–8 p.m. ET (CBS). Streaming on ESPN+ and PGA Tour Live.

What Is the Farmers Insurance Open Purse?

The total purse is $9.6 million, with $1.728 million to the winner.

2026 Farmers Insurance Open Odds

Let’s take a look at the latest Farmers Insurance Open odds:

The top tier is tight enough that you’re not getting paid much to absorb Torrey volatility, especially when the South Course can play like a different sport from the North. That pricing implies your outright bets need a clear edge in tee-to-green quality and long-hole scoring, not just “good vibes on a tough track.”

The value pockets show up in the +2250 to +3200 range and again in the +3700 to +4600 cluster. That’s where you can buy win paths tied to elite tee-to-green rankings, Poa comfort, and proven Torrey performance without paying the very top of the board.

Continue reading our Farmers Insurance Open analysis below, and make sure to check out the top handicappers to see how they’re cutting and slicing this field.

Slice and Cut Your Way
To Winning Golf Picks

With This Elite
Handicapping Membership

Get Free Trial

The Farmers Insurance Open Favorites

Favorites are priced for “in the mix,” so the handicap must be cleaner than narrative.

Xander Schauffele (+1300)

Schauffele’s recent form is framed as strong, returning after a 2025 rib injury, and he headlines predictor models as the No. 1 overall. At Torrey, that matters because this tournament typically rewards players who can keep pressure on the field through tough scoring stretches, not just spike one low round.

The fit is built around elite tee-to-green control in demanding conditions: 1st SG: Tee to Green, top-10 tee-to-green in 8-event rankings, and top-25 in SG: Approach and SG: Total, plus a course history that includes multiple top-10s and a runner-up. The Poa note also matters, with “top 25 Poa Annua winners” included in the profile. At +1300, you’re paying for probability, and the condition is that you want a complete Torrey profile that can handle the South Course grind without needing a putting outlier.

Ludvig Aberg (+1650)

Åberg’s start to 2026 showed upside with closing rounds of 65–64 at The Sentry, and he was T9 on his Torrey debut in 2025, including a 63 on the North as a Round 1 leader. That matters because it shows he can score on the easier track and still hold position when the event shifts to the South Course.

The stats align with the Torrey blueprint: 7th SG: Off the Tee, 8th Tee to Green, and 13th SG: Putting, with a note that he’s a top-25 Poa Annua winner with one win. He’s also a long hitter who thrives in tough setups, which is exactly the combination you want at Torrey. At +1650, you’re paying for probability, and the condition is that you believe his improved all-around game carries through the weekend when the South demands patience.

Cameron Young (+1800)

Young enters with a strong narrative edge in the inputs: a sublime end to 2025 that included his first PGA Tour win, paired with distance that plays at Torrey. At a venue that stretches the field on the South Course, that matters because you want players who can keep approach numbers manageable from long holes.

His stats fit the course: top-5 SG: Off the Tee, elite proximity from 200+ yards, and strength on par 4s 450–500 yards. The course history is mixed (T20 and MC), but the note set frames him as expected to contend, with putting improvement highlighted as a turning point. At +1800, you’re paying for probability, and the condition is that you’re buying the “corner turned” putting version of Young because Torrey will not tolerate a cold conversion week.

Si Woo Kim (+2250)

Si Woo’s recent form includes being the 54-hole leader at the 2026 American Express, and his tee-to-green profile is elite in the provided rankings. At Torrey, that matters because the South Course demands sustained ball-striking, and you need enough quality shots to keep bogeys off the card.

The key levers are specific: top-2 SG: Tee to Green, top-25 SG: Approach and SG: Total, and 4th SG: Tee to Green in 8-event rankings, plus comfort on Poa Annua greens and consistent Torrey paychecks. At +2250, you’re paying for probability, and the condition is that you trust the tee-to-green floor to hold through the South Course rounds when the tournament gets tight.

Patrick Cantlay (+2300)

Cantlay’s start to 2026 is described as solid with contention, and his profile shows up well in the tee-to-green metrics provided. At Torrey, consistency matters because you can’t chase every pin on the South without giving away doubles.

The stats case is balanced: top-9 SG: Tee to Green, top-25 SG: Around the Green, and 8th SG: Total, with “firepower off the tee” noted. Course history is less clean (T65 in 2024 is referenced), so the bet is more about current profile than venue proof. At +2300, you’re paying for probability, and the condition is that you’re backing his all-around control to avoid the one round that knocks an outright off the rails.

The Best Farmers Insurance Open Betting Value

This section is about “price vs path” alignment.

Hideki Matsuyama (+2800)

Matsuyama’s recent form is the strongest in the note set: wins at the Hero World Challenge and Sentry, plus a T13 at the Sony Open. That matters because you’re getting a player in top gear at a venue where elite approach play is a prerequisite, not a tiebreaker.

His Torrey history is reliable: missed cuts only twice in 12 attempts, best 3rd in 2019, and the stats are framed as best-in-field: 1st SG: Approach, 1st Tee to Green, 1st Total, plus top-25 Around the Green, and two Poa Annua wins. At +2800, the implied win rate feels tolerable because the price is not asking you to beat the top tier on brand just on the most relevant skill. This is a clean “price vs path” buy.

Jason Day (+3200)

Day’s recent form includes a runner-up at the 2026 American Express, with rounds of 63-71-67-64, and his Torrey résumé is as proven as anyone in this field. That matters because Torrey is a course where comfort and pattern recognition can be worth strokes when conditions change across rounds.

The course history is elite: wins in 2015 and 2018, plus seven top-10s including a runner-up and a third. The stats point to a conversion angle 1st SG: Putting at the Amex, 8th SG: Putting, 7th Total, and top-25 Around the Green, with four Poa Annua wins noted. At +3200, the implied win rate is tolerable because you’re buying course-proof plus a putting baseline that can turn tough scoring into an outright. The condition is that his tee-to-green is stable enough to keep the putter in contention position.

The Top Farmers Insurance Open Longshot

At +4000, Taylor Pendrith is priced long enough to matter while still owning a real Torrey record. His recent form includes T6 at the Sony, and he missed the cut at the American Express by one despite being -10 through 54 holes, which is a useful signal of upside with one costly stretch.

Torrey history is the reason this is a longshot with a path: T7 (2025), T9 (2024), and T16 (2022), with notes that he gained strokes off the tee and on approaches and brings firepower. The relevant angle is straightforward: if he’s gaining off the tee and holding his approach play, he can keep pace on the South. The win condition is contention position plus one high-conversion week.

Farmers Insurance Open Predictions

The non-negotiables are elite approach play and a tee-to-green profile that can survive the South Course when scoring compresses. Matsuyama checks both in the inputs: he’s started the season hot with wins, he’s consistently performed at Torrey with limited missed cuts, and he’s described as elite in the exact strokes-gained buckets that matter most here.

The stat scaffolding is as clean as you can ask for: 1st SG: Approach, 1st Tee to Green, 1st Total, plus top-25 around the green and proven Poa comfort. At +2800, the price is acceptable because you’re not paying for name value; you’re paying for the most relevant skill set on the property.

Pick: Hideki Matsuyama (+2800)

The Best Farmers Insurance Open Prop Bets

Check out some of the best prop bets for The Farmers Insurance Open:

Sam Burns Top 10 (including ties) (+170)

This is a reasonable placement bet when you want exposure to a top-10 outcome without paying an outright price in a volatile Torrey setup. The risk is that Torrey can punish one off-round, so the edge comes from price discipline rather than certainty.

Pick: Sam Burns Top 10 (including ties) (+170)

Maverick McNealy Top 20 (+150)

McNealy’s note set includes a strong week at Sony until a Sunday 73, plus 14th SG: Approach, which supports a “ball-striking keeps you in range” placement angle. At +150, you’re paying for a realistic finish band that matches a steady profile and reduces outright volatility.

Pick: Maverick McNealy Top 20 (+150)

Ludvig Aberg Top Continental Europe (+180)

This is a niche market that aligns with Åberg’s current form and Torrey debut success, while avoiding the need to beat the entire outright field. The risk is field composition and variance, but the price is fair for a player who grades well tee-to-green and has already shown Torrey scoring upside.

Pick: Ludvig Aberg Top Continental Europe (+180)

Stephan Jaeger Top German (+130)

This is another nationality-based angle that reduces the number of competitors you need to beat, which can be useful at Torrey where the overall tournament outcome is high-variance. The risk is the short price, so it works best as a small-stake add-on rather than a core card position.

Pick: Stephan Jaeger Top German (+130)

Frankie Capan III Top 20 (+400)

This is the variance play small stake only because the longer number implies a wider distribution of outcomes and placement markets can be fragile at Torrey. The upside is the payout for a single strong week, but it should not be sized like a core position.

Pick: Frankie Capan III Top 20 (+400)

Who Won the Farmers Insurance Open 2025?

Harris English won the 2025 Farmers Insurance Open at -8 (280), closing with a final-round 73 for a 1-shot win over Sam Stevens in windy conditions. That matters as your baseline because it reinforces the key point at Torrey: this tournament can shift from “score” to “survive,” and the winner is often the player who keeps control when the South Course tightens.

The top tier is priced to reflect “Torrey-proof” skill sets elite tee-to-green, long-hole scoring, and the ability to hold up when conditions worsen. That compression at the top implies you need a clean handicap edge to justify paying short numbers, because the South Course can neutralize separation when it turns into a par-value test.

The main value pockets are +2800 to +4500 and the next band around +5000 to +7000. That’s where you can find players whose win paths are built on approach play, flight control, and long-hole scoring traits that matter more at Torrey than pure birdie rate or optics.

2025 Farmers Insurance Open Betting Recap

Let’s take a look at how the 2025 edition of the Farmers Insurance Open unfolded at Torrey Pines and the betting takeaways from this tournament:

2025 Farmers Insurance Open Odds

The following odds came from the beginning of the tournament. Betting lines changed through each round and varied at different sites:

2025 Farmers Insurance Open Notable Finishes

• Winner: Harris English (-8)
• Runner-up: Sam Stevens (-7, lost by 1 stroke)
• Ludvig Åberg (+1100): T42
• Hideki Matsuyama (+1100): T32
• Sungjae Im (+1800): T4
• Tony Finau (+2200): CUT
• Keegan Bradley (+2200): T15
• Jason Day (+2500): T32
• Will Zalatoris (+2500): WD (did not start)
• Max Homa (+3300): WD
• Taylor Pendrith (+3300): T7
• Kurt Kitayama (+4000): CUT
• Harris English (+10000): 1st
• Sam Stevens (+10000): 2nd

Golf Betting Takeaways From Torrey Pines

Golf betting takeaways from the 2025 Famers Insurance Open:

• The outright win came from the longshot pocket. English was +10000 on the reference snapshot and won at -8, reinforcing that this board can be beaten from deeper prices.
• The runner-up was priced the same long. Stevens was +10000 and finished 2nd (-7), which matters when deciding how much exposure to allocate beyond the first two tiers.
• The very top did not contend, but the upper tier still produced live tickets. The two shortest prices (Åberg T42, Matsuyama T32) were non-factors, while Im (+1800) finished T4.
• Withdrawals were real outcomes. Zalatoris (+2500) WD and Homa (+3300) WD were “zero-return” results on the outright board risk that sits outside normal performance variance.
• Mid/upper-middle prices produced relevant placement profiles. Pendrith (+3300) T7 and Bradley (+2200) T15 fit the idea that the middle of the board can stay involved even when the win comes from deeper.

Why Torrey Pines Can Push Outcomes Like This

If you want to use volatility language responsibly, when making your golf picks, the mechanisms are in the course notes. The South Course is long (7,765 yards) and anchored by a profile that included a low Going for the Green rate (38.18%) and a challenging short-putt environment inside 10 feet (85.30%). That combination can make it harder for favorites to separate through routine scoring runs, and easier for the board to scatter when conversion slips. Meanwhile, the North-side notes high GIR% (73.90%) paired with low birdie volume (681) support a second constraint: separation may come more from avoiding mistakes and converting limited looks than from a pure birdie-fest.

Farmers Insurance Open Winners