At this point, we’re down to what appears to be a 3-horse race between QBs who were not on anyone’s radar to begin the season. Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia, and Ohio State’s Julian Sayin look likely to receive invitations to the Heisman ceremony in New York City. Raise your hand if you expected that coming into the campaign. Now put your hand down, liar!

Let’s the latest NCAAF Heisman Trophy odds and break breakdown each player’s chances of winning this prestigious award. Some of the favorites are currently leading their teams into the College Football Playoffs and attempting to conclude the season with a College Football Championship.

What Is The Heisman Trophy?

The Heisman Trophy was established in 1935 by the Downtown Athletic Club which was located in New York City. The trophy was named in honor of the club’s first athletic director, John Heisman.

Each year, the Heisman Trophy is given to the most outstanding player in college football. It has been awarded every season since 1936. Interestingly, only one player in the history of college football has ever won the award twice. That was Ohio State running back Archie Griffin, the winner in 1974 and 1975.

Who Won The Heisman Trophy?

After three straight quarterbacks won the Heisman, Colorado WR/DB Travis Hunter broke the mold and captured last year’s trophy. Hunter was a unique talent who finished fifth in the nation in receiving yards – 1,258 yards on 96 receptions. He scored 15 touchdowns.

Defensively, Hunter recorded 35 tackles, forced a fumble, broke up 11 passes, and had four interceptions. He also had a rushing touchdown and was awarded the 2024 Heisman Trophy with a vote total of 2,231 votes.

Hunter beat out Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty, who rushed for 2,601 yards and 29 touchdowns, by 214 votes. Jeanty was the runner-up with 2,017 votes.

When Is The Heisman Trophy Ceremony?

The Heisman Trophy award is presented each year in early December on the first Saturday after the regular season. This year, the ceremony will take place on Saturday, Dec. 13, at 8 p.m. ET.

The event will be broadcasted by ESPN live from the Jazz Center at Lincoln’s Appel Room. The top four vote-getters will be invited to attend the 2025 Heisman Trophy ceremony.

Heisman Trophy Odds

Check out the latest NCAAF odds for the Heisman Trophy Award, courtesy of the best sports betting sites:

It has been quite the season. Most of the preseason Heisman Trophy candidates have fallen by the wayside like Allar and Manning. From their ashes rose new Heisman candidates and College Football superstars. With that said, this race has been very compelling over the last few months. In addition to our analysis for the Heisman Trophy below, check out what the best handicappers are predicting for the 2025 Heisman Trophy Award.

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Heisman Trophy Favorites

The following players are the odds-on favorites to win the Heisman Trophy Award:

ernando Mendoza (Indiana) +170

Fernando Mendoza enters the Big Ten Championship as the Heisman favorite thanks to a 2025 season defined by efficiency, production, and poise in big moments. He completed 72.0% of his passes, a major jump from his earlier years, and finished with 2,758 yards, 32 touchdowns, and only 5 interceptions. Among Power Five quarterbacks, that blend of accuracy and ball security stands out, especially considering Indiana’s rise into the national title conversation. Mendoza has elevated the Hoosiers’ offense with rhythmic timing throws and the confidence to hit intermediate routes against tight coverage, allowing Indiana to control games and sustain long scoring drives.

His efficiency metrics underscore how polished he has become. Mendoza averaged 9.4 yards per attempt—a number that reflects both strong decision-making and the ability to push the ball downfield when needed. He also added 243 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns, giving Indiana a valuable red-zone dimension when protections broke down or defenses dropped into deeper shells. It’s that dual-threat reliability that has kept Indiana balanced and unpredictable, forcing defenses to respect every level of the field.

What separates Mendoza most in the Heisman discussion is how consistently he delivered Indiana out of high-leverage situations. Whether it was leading scoring drives to maintain momentum or responding after mistakes, he rarely let Indiana slip out of rhythm. His 32 passing touchdowns led the FBS this season, and his 183.7 passer rating ranked No. 2 nationally—numbers that signal not only statistical dominance but week-to-week stability. For a program that has never won a Big Ten title in the modern era, Mendoza’s steadiness has been transformative.

Saturday’s Big Ten title matchup presents him with a defining opportunity. Facing the nation’s most accurate quarterback on the other sideline, Mendoza can all but clinch the Heisman if he guides Indiana to a win and maintains the efficiency that has carried the Hoosiers all season. His résumé already fits the profile of a Heisman winner; a conference championship would solidify it.

Diego Pavia (Vanderbilt) +180

Diego Pavia has authored one of the most remarkable program turnarounds in recent college football memory, instantly transforming Vanderbilt from an SEC afterthought into a legitimate national storyline. Since arriving in Nashville, he has elevated the Commodores on and off the field, becoming the face of a team that finished the 2025 regular season 10–2, including a statement blowout win over rival Tennessee. That victory—coming on a national stage against an opponent Vanderbilt seldom dominates—felt like the signature “Heisman moment” voters look for, the kind of performance that cements a quarterback’s value beyond raw numbers.

Pavia’s production backs up the narrative. He has thrown for over 3,100 yards with 27 passing touchdowns, displaying a willingness to challenge defenses vertically while still avoiding game-wrecking mistakes. But where he truly separates himself is as a runner. Pavia surpassed 800 rushing yards and added nine touchdowns on the ground, giving Vanderbilt an explosive dual-threat engine who dictated defensive game plans every week. Even without eye-popping passing totals compared to past Heisman winners, the combination of efficiency, big-play creation, and multi-dimensional usage makes his impact undeniable.

Perhaps the strongest part of Pavia’s case is what Vanderbilt becomes with him versus what it historically has been. For decades, the Commodores were treated as a near-automatic SEC win; under Pavia, they’ve not only shed that identity but actively intimidated opponents. His leadership, toughness, and competitive edge have reshaped the program’s culture, resulting in victories—and margins—that simply do not happen at Vanderbilt without a star quarterback at the center of the operation. That context matters in Heisman discussions, where “most outstanding” often includes elevating a team far beyond expectations.

Even though he won’t play in a conference championship game, Pavia’s résumé is already complete in a way few non-title contenders can claim. He produced elite numbers, engineered a double-digit win season in the most grueling conference in college football, and delivered a marquee performance that voters will remember. While he may not have the final-week spotlight Mendoza and Sayin enjoy, his blend of production, leadership value, and program transformation gives him one of the most compelling Heisman arguments in the country.

Julian Sayin (Ohio State) +190

Julian Sayin has been the most efficient quarterback in college football this season, and he enters Saturday with a real chance to flip the Heisman race if he outplays Mendoza on the championship stage. Sayin completed an astonishing 78.9% of his passes, the highest figure in the country, while throwing for 3,065 yards, 30 touchdowns, and just 5 interceptions. His command of Ohio State’s offense has allowed the Buckeyes to execute at a level few defenses have been able to match. Every part of the passing game—quick game, intermediate timing routes, deep shots—runs through his ability to read leverage and place the ball exactly where it needs to be.

Sayin’s efficiency numbers border on historic. His 9.4 yards per attempt matches Mendoza’s, but his 184.8 passer rating leads the nation. Those figures reflect a quarterback who not only avoids mistakes but consistently creates explosive gains. Ohio State’s offense has thrived on his precision, especially on early downs, where he has kept the Buckeyes ahead of schedule and allowed the playbook to remain fully open. Even when pressured, Sayin’s mechanics hold up exceptionally well, and he has repeatedly shown the ability to layer throws into tight windows.

While he doesn’t add the same rushing production as Mendoza—just 27 rushing yards this season—Sayin compensates by maximizing virtually every passing opportunity. OSU’s receiving corps has certainly helped, but Sayin’s timing and anticipation have turned contested-catch situations into high-percentage completions. He rarely forces the ball and consistently identifies the most efficient option on the field, which is why Ohio State has looked so structurally sound offensively throughout its undefeated run.

For Sayin, the Heisman case hinges on what happens Saturday night. If he leads Ohio State to a win over an Indiana defense that has overwhelmed opponents all year, voters will have to seriously consider whether the nation’s most accurate and productive pure passer deserves the trophy. His statistical profile is already good enough to win the award in most seasons, and a Big Ten Championship performance could be the moment that tips the race in his favor.

The Best Heisman Trophy Betting Value

Jeremiyah Love’s (+5000) longshot Heisman campaign is built on the fact that no running back in the country combined explosiveness and efficiency at his level this season. Love rushed 199 times for 1,372 yards—a stellar 6.9 yards per carry—with 18 touchdowns, while also adding 280 receiving yards and three receiving scores. Few backs nationally offered that type of dual-threat consistency, especially on an offense where touches were split between multiple NFL-caliber backs. Love didn’t accumulate his numbers through pure volume; he produced elite efficiency in a crowded backfield, which is arguably more impressive than the raw totals themselves.

What strengthens Love’s case is that his 2025 highlight reel rivals anyone in the Heisman field. He delivered some of the most memorable runs of the season, including a 94-yard touchdown against Boston College and a 56-yard spin-move run at Pitt that spread across social media within minutes. Even his gritty 48-yard run against Navy, where he rolled over a defender without touching the turf, showcased instincts and athleticism that few players in the sport possess. These are the kinds of plays that stick with voters—electrifying, game-breaking moments from a player capable of changing a game with one touch.

Love ultimately faces the challenge of playing for a two-loss team and sharing carries in an offense loaded with depth, but that context also strengthens the integrity of his production. He wasn’t force-fed touches to build a Heisman résumé; he earned every yard in a balanced attack that didn’t revolve around inflating his stats. Despite missing time late in the year with a rib injury, he still finished with over 1,600 yards from scrimmage and 21 total touchdowns—numbers that would put him in the top tier of most seasons. While the Heisman race appears to be a two-quarterback battle at the top, Love’s blend of efficiency, explosiveness, and consistency gives him one of the strongest longshot profiles in the field.

The Top Heisman Trophy Longshot

Ty Simpson (+30000) and the Crimson Tide got off to an inauspicious start with a season-opening setback to Florida State. That loss looks worse by the week given how poorly the Seminoles have since fared, though the Tide have managed to turn things around. On Saturday, ‘Bama will assume their usual position in Atlanta opposite rival Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. The outcome of the game doesn’t matter a ton – both teams are likely to make the 12-team College Football Playoff field – but a strong outing could be enough to propel Simpson to NYC for the Heisman Trophy ceremony.

That said, an awful lot would have to go wrong for Mendoza and Sayin on Saturday for Simpson to have even a puncher’s chance at pulling the upset. While the junior has had an impressive campaign – throwing for over 3,000 yards with 25 TDs to 4 interceptions – it’ll be difficult for voters to justify handing the Heisman to a QB of a 2-loss Alabama team this year. Mendoza, Sayin, and Pavia have all the momentum, while Love would be favored in a hypothetical head-to-head scenario.

Simpson is a good story, but he’ll have to wait another year if he hopes to nab college football’s highest individual honor before his career comes to a close.

Heisman Trophy Predictions

The updated board still leans toward Mendoza as the most complete Heisman profile entering championship weekend. His blend of accuracy (72%), production (32 passing touchdowns), decision-making (only 5 interceptions), and dual-threat value give him the cleanest résumé of the contenders. Mendoza’s 2,758 passing yards and 183.7 passer rating rank among the nation’s elite, and he has been the driving force behind Indiana’s historic season. Even with Julian Sayin posting slightly higher yardage totals, Mendoza’s efficiency and importance to a program that rose from irrelevance into the national spotlight remain unmatched. Voters often gravitate toward quarterbacks who lift a nontraditional power into championship contention, and Mendoza fits that mold more than anyone on the board.

Sayin has closed the gap and could create a compelling argument with a major performance, but even his nation-leading 78.9% completion rate and 184.8 passer rating may not be enough to override the narrative power behind Mendoza’s season unless the gap in play on Saturday is dramatic. Diego Pavia remains the most compelling non–Big Ten challenger, but without a conference championship stage and given the strength of the other two résumés, his path is narrower despite his massive impact at Vanderbilt. The Heisman electorate will weigh production, wins, and context—and Mendoza still checks the most boxes entering the vote.

Even if Indiana loses to the No. 1 team in America on Saturday, Mendoza retains a legitimate path to the trophy so long as he avoids a disastrous outing. His season-long résumé is strong enough to withstand a competitive loss, especially if he plays well in defeat. He remains the candidate with the highest floor, the strongest narrative foundation, and the most complete statistical case.

Bet: Fernando Mendoza (+170)

Recent Heisman Trophy Award Winners

The following is a list of the most recent Heisman Trophy winners: