2025 Kentucky Derby Odds and Predictions

The 151st running of the Kentucky Derby is right around the corner, and we’ve got everything you need to prep for race day—odds, predictions, longshots, and of course, the best bets to make.

Whether you’re new to the sport or a longtime fan, our horse racing blog section and sports betting site reviews have you covered.

Where Is the Kentucky Derby?

The race takes place at the legendary Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.

When Is the Kentucky Derby?

The 2025 Kentucky Derby is set for Saturday, May 3—right on tradition as the first Saturday in May.

What Time Is the Kentucky Derby?

The Kentucky Derby post time for 2025 is set for 6:57 PM ET.

Who Won the Kentucky Derby in 2024?

In case you missed it, Mystik Dan defied the odds to win the 2024 Kentucky Derby. Mystik Dan entered the race at +1800 to win it, yet won on a three-way photo finish in one of the most thrilling races we’ve seen in years.

Kentucky Derby Odds

Check out the latest Kentucky Derby odds:

Overall, the betting board is top-heavy, with Journalism emerging as the clear favorite. Still, there’s plenty of value if you dig into mid-tier contenders and longshots. For more expert analysis, check out our best handicappers for additional insight before post time.

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Kentucky Derby Favorites

The following horses are considered the favorites for the 151st Kentucky Derby:

Who Is the Favorite to Win the Kentucky Derby?

Journalism (+290) enters the 2025 Kentucky Derby as a legitimate contender, boasting a sharp 5-0-1 record from seven starts and earnings of $680,000. A bay colt by Curlin out of Unholy Night (by Union Rags), Journalism has made steady improvement with each outing, particularly in his recent wins, including an impressive performance in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita.

He’s trained by Michael W. McCarthy and ridden by Umberto Rispoli, with ownership shared by a large partnership including Bredwell Farm, Dan Alberto Stable, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, and others. Journalism has shown the ability to press the pace or rally from off it—versatility that could prove crucial in a chaotic 20-horse Derby field.

Journalism’s pedigree is loaded with stamina and class. His sire, Curlin, was Horse of the Year twice, and his dam line includes Mojo Girl, a Grade 1-placed daughter of Tiznow. That bloodline combination is one of the reasons his connections believe he can handle the Kentucky Derby’s 1¼-mile distance.

Under McCarthy’s guidance, Journalism has developed a professional racing style and seems to be peaking at the right time. A string of well-timed works at Santa Anita—including back-to-back six-furlong moves—suggests he’s fit, sharp, and ready to fire on Derby Day.

Sandman (+850)

Sandman, a gray/roan colt by Tapit out of Distorted Music (by Distorted Humor), enters the 2025 Kentucky Derby as a well-rounded contender with proven stamina and tactical versatility. He’s coming off a win in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park, where he captured the 1 1/8-mile race on March 23. That performance earned him 100 qualifying points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby and confirmed his ability to handle pressure and stretch out in distance.

Trained by Matt Casse and ridden by Jose L. Ortiz, Sandman has earned over $1.25 million from 3 wins in 7 starts. His pedigree reflects a blend of stamina and speed, with Tapit’s staying power and Distorted Humor’s turn-of-foot. He’s also shown consistency, having recorded a best six-furlong move in 1:13.40, which is noted in his work pattern at Saratoga.

The colt’s race record includes a mix of front-running ability and measured finishing power. He’s steadily improved throughout his 3-year-old campaign and enters Churchill Downs in top form. His performance pattern and physical conditioning point to a colt who is ready to meet the demands of the Derby’s 1¼-mile distance.

With a classic pedigree, a top-tier win in his final prep, and solid earnings, Sandman profiles as a serious Kentucky Derby contender who’s built to handle the pace, traffic, and challenge of racing against the best 3-year-olds in the country.

Sovereignty (+600)

Sovereignty comes into the 2025 Kentucky Derby as a top-tier contender, showcasing both tactical speed and a strong finishing punch. Representing the powerhouse Godolphin operation, this colt turned heads with a sharp victory in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes, stamping himself as one of the most well-rounded threats in this year’s Derby field.

Trained by William Mott and ridden by Manuel Franco, Sovereignty is by Macduff out of the Bernardini mare Crowned, combining a pedigree full of stamina and late-race ability. His running style has evolved quickly—from a closing sprinter in his debut to a more adaptable route runner who’s now proven capable of pressing or stalking the pace, depending on race shape.

That versatility was on full display in his recent starts, especially in the Street Sense Stakes, where he flashed strong closing ability before finishing with even more authority in the Fountain of Youth. His ability to sit off the leaders and produce a sustained rally in the stretch could make him a major factor in the crowded 1¼-mile Derby setup.

Sovereignty has improved with each race, both visually and statistically, and enters the Derby appearing to hit peak form at exactly the right time. With elite connections, a well-rounded racing style, and graded stakes success already on his résumé, he profiles as one of the most dangerous horses in the field.

Kentucky Derby Longshots

The following horses are considered longshots to win the Kentucky Derby:

• Neoequos (+5000)
• Flying Mohawk (+5000)
• Render Judgment (+5000)
• Owen Almighty (+4800)
• Chunk of Gold (+4500)

While their chances may be slim, all it takes is a clean trip and the right conditions for a longshot to cash big. Past Derbies have proven that underdogs can’t be overlooked.

Flying Mohawk (+5000)

Flying Mohawk enters the Derby scene with a resume built on synthetic and turf success, but he’s shown flashes on dirt that make him a compelling longshot. He finished second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway Park and has steadily improved in each start under trainer Whit Beckman. His recent workout at Fair Grounds on dirt showed promise with a bullet five-furlong move in 1:00.8, adding intrigue to his adaptability heading into the Derby.

While questions remain about his form on dirt, Flying Mohawk’s closing ability and professional demeanor make him a sneaky option if the pace up front falls apart. His versatility, improving numbers, and late kick offer just enough upside to justify taking a shot at 50-1 odds—especially if he catches the right trip in the 20-horse chaos.

Neoequos (+5000)

Neoequos comes into the Derby under the radar, but his recent efforts suggest there may be untapped potential. He’s compiled a 2-2-2 record from seven career starts and turned heads with a strong second-place finish in the Florida Derby (G1), where he outran expectations against graded company. That effort proved he can close and compete against elite fields, and it boosted his earnings to over $325,000.

Though still green in some areas, Neoequos has shown steady improvement and stamina in his prep campaign. His recent 6-furlong workout in 1:12.0 at Gulfstream Park adds a bit of momentum going into Derby week. With a bit more maturity and the right pace setup, he has the tools to blow up the tote board if things fall his way.

Kentucky Derby Predictions

Looking at speed ratings, prep race performances, and jockey matchups, here’s our early pick:

While Journalism is rightfully the favorite, my official pick to win the 2025 Kentucky Derby is Sovereignty. He offers the perfect balance of class, form, and value. His win in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) showcased his ability to sit off the pace and deliver a powerful closing kick—an ideal running style for navigating the traffic and chaos of a 20-horse Derby field. Trained by William Mott and campaigned by Godolphin, Sovereignty has the pedigree, the pace adaptability, and the late-race stamina to thrive at 1¼ miles.

What really makes Sovereignty stand out is how he’s come into form at exactly the right time. With a pedigree that combines Macduff’s speed and Bernardini’s staying power, plus back-to-back sharp efforts in graded stakes, he’s progressing the way Derby winners often do. At +600, you’re getting a well-prepared, improving colt from elite connections—not quite the chalk, but close enough to feel confident while still finding betting value. Sovereignty checks every box and might just be ready to seize the roses.

Bet: Sovereignty (+600)

Best Kentucky Derby Bets

The following Kentucky Derby bets are our favorites for this year’s Run for the Roses:

• Win Bet on Sovereignty (+600): Strong favorite with tactical speed and momentum.
• Place Bet on Journalism (+140): Reliable closer who almost always hits the board.
• Exacta Box: Sovereignty / Journalism / Flying Mohawk: Flying Mohawk is a solid sleeper.

Kentucky Derby Winners

Check out the most recent Kentucky Derby winners: