At Bovada (read 22:57 UTC on 9 November 2026), the Las Vegas Grand Prix odds have Kimi Antonelli and Max Verstappen as co-favourites at +200 each, a 27.4% chance apiece once the margin is out, with George Russell next at +600. The race is on Saturday, November 21, 2026, at 8:00 pm PT (11:00 pm ET), round 21, on the Las Vegas Strip Circuit. Our Las Vegas Grand Prix predictions come down to one session: Friday night’s qualifying.
| Driver | Price | Chance in the price | Chance, margin out |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kimi Antonelli | +200 | 33.3% | 27.4% |
| Max Verstappen | +200 | 33.3% | 27.4% |
| George Russell | +600 | 14.3% | 11.7% |
| Lando Norris | +800 | 11.1% | 9.1% |
| Oscar Piastri | +1000 | 9.1% | 7.5% |
| Charles Leclerc | +1600 | 5.9% | 4.8% |
| Isack Hadjar | +1600 | 5.9% | 4.8% |
| Lewis Hamilton | +1600 | 5.9% | 4.8% |
Pick: no bet before qualifying
We have no model number for an F1 race, so we cannot show any price on this board to be wrong. Our view is no bet on the race winner before qualifying. In 2026 the driver starting first won 14 of the 20 races, and the winner started on the front row in 18 of 20. A race-winner price taken before Friday is mostly a bet on qualifying.
Las Vegas is the caveat. In 3 races on the Strip, the driver starting first won once: Russell, in 2024. Verstappen won the other two from second. Three races is a small sample. It tells me second on the grid has won here twice in three races, and nothing more.
This is where the weekend gets decided: Friday, November 20, at 8:00 pm PT. Whoever lines up first and second that night is who the race is really about, and I would rather see that grid than guess it at +200. For how F1 markets work across a race weekend, see our Formula 1 betting guide.
What the F1 Las Vegas odds say
The two co-favourites take 54.8% between them once the margin is out. The margin is the extra a book builds in so the listed chances add up to more than 100%. At Bovada they add up to 121.6%.
The eight drivers priced shorter than +50000 take 97.5% once the margin is out. The other 14 are listed at +50000. The market last changed at 23:23 UTC on 8 November 2026, the night of the São Paulo race. Prices move, and these are as read.
The standings with three races left
After the São Paulo Grand Prix in Brazil on November 8, round 20, Antonelli leads Verstappen by 111 points. Three races are left: Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi. His lead is larger than the most any driver can still score in those three races, so he cannot be caught. Our F1 championship page follows the title market.
| Pos. | Driver | Team | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes | 390 |
| 2 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing | 279 |
| 3 | George Russell | Mercedes | 262 |
| 4 | Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | 261 |
| 5 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | 249 |
| 6 | Lando Norris | McLaren | 246 |
| 7 | Oscar Piastri | McLaren | 152 |
| 8 | Isack Hadjar | Red Bull Racing | 122 |
| 9 | Liam Lawson | Racing Bulls | 89 |
| 10 | Pierre Gasly | Alpine | 42 |
The fight for second is close. Verstappen has 279 points, Russell 262, Hamilton 261, Leclerc 249 and Norris 246. That is the race inside the race over the last three weekends.
2026 form behind the Las Vegas Grand Prix odds
Antonelli has won 9 of the 20 races this season. Russell, Norris and Verstappen have 3 wins each, and Hamilton and Leclerc 1 each. Mercedes drivers have won 12 of 20.
The last five races ran close to the grid. Verstappen won Bahrain and Singapore from first, Antonelli won the United States from first, Verstappen won Mexico from fifth and Norris won Brazil from first. Only two 2026 winners started outside the top three: Antonelli from 19th in Italy and Verstappen from fifth in Mexico.
Past Las Vegas Grand Prix winners
| Year | Winner | Team | Started | Pole | Second | Third |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing Honda RBPT | 2 | Charles Leclerc | Charles Leclerc | Sergio Perez |
| 2024 | George Russell | Mercedes | 1 | George Russell | Lewis Hamilton | Carlos Sainz |
| 2025 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing | 2 | Lando Norris | George Russell | Kimi Antonelli |
Verstappen won the 2023 race from second, with Leclerc on pole. Russell won from pole in 2024. In 2025 Verstappen won from second again: Norris started on pole and was disqualified with Piastri for technical infringements, and Antonelli finished third after five seconds were added for a false start.
| Driver | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kimi Antonelli | – | – | 3 |
| Max Verstappen | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| George Russell | 8 | 1 | 2 |
| Lando Norris | DNF | 6 | DSQ |
| Oscar Piastri | 10 | 7 | DSQ |
| Charles Leclerc | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| Isack Hadjar | – | – | 6 |
| Lewis Hamilton | 7 | 2 | 8 |
Verstappen’s Las Vegas finishes read 1, 5, 1. Russell’s read 8, 1, 2, and Leclerc’s 2, 4, 4. Antonelli has raced here once, finishing third in 2025.
The city has a longer F1 past. Formula1.com lists two earlier races as the Caesars Palace Grand Prix: Alan Jones won in 1981 and Michele Alboreto in 1982.
The circuit and the weekend
The Las Vegas Strip Circuit is 6.201 km with 17 turns. The race is 50 laps, 309.958 km, and the first Grand Prix here was in 2023. The fastest lap formula1.com lists for the circuit is 1:33.365, set by Verstappen in 2025.
All times are Las Vegas time (PT):
- Practice 1: Thursday, November 19, 4:30 pm
- Qualifying: Friday, November 20, 8:00 pm
- Race: Saturday, November 21, 8:00 pm (04:00 UTC on Sunday, November 22)
Friday night decides it
Watch the top of the grid on Friday night. This season the winner came from the front row in 18 of 20 races. In Las Vegas, second on the grid has won twice in three races. Both of those wins went to Verstappen.
Until that grid is set, the call is no bet on the race winner, at +200 or anywhere else on the board. If you do bet the race on Saturday, November 21, play within your limits; our responsible gambling guide explains how.
Sources: Bovada Las Vegas GP race-winner market, read 22:57 UTC on 9 November 2026; formula1.com 2026 drivers’ standings, read 22:55 UTC on 9 November 2026; formula1.com 2026 race results and starting grids (20 races), read 22:57 UTC on 9 November 2026; formula1.com Las Vegas results and grids 2023 to 2025 and the 2026 Las Vegas race page, read 22:55 to 22:56 UTC on 9 November 2026.