Arnold Barboza Jr. vs. Teofimo Lopez Jr. Odds and Predictions

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On Friday, May 2, Teofimo Lopez Jr. will take on Arnold Barboza Jr. for the WBO super lightweight title live from Time Square in New York City, NY. This title fight will take place on the undercard of Ryan Garcia vs. Rolly Romero.

In addition to Lopez vs. Barboza Jr., Devin Haney will also fight on the undercard of this boxing PPV titled The Ring’s Fatal Fury: Time Square, which will air live on DAZN.

Lopez Jr. (21-1, 13 KOs) has put together five wins in a row since suffering the lone loss of his career. He aims for another successful title defense and a step towards a unification fight later this year or in early 2026.

Barboza Jr. (32-0, 11 KOs) last fought in February and took out one of the top contenders in the division, Jack Catterall. The split decision victory put Barboza Jr. in line for a fight with Lopez and a shot at the world title.

Typically, big events like this don’t air on Friday nights. However, this scheduling was due to Canelo Alvarez fighting on Saturday, May 3^rd against William Scull.

Let’s take a look at the latest Teofimo Lopez Jr. vs. Arnold Barboza Jr. odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our Arnold Barboza Jr. vs. Teofimo Lopez Jr. predictions.

Teofimo Lopez Jr. vs. Arnold Barboza Jr. Preview

Check out the Teofimo Lopez Jr. vs. Arnold Barboza Jr. tale of the tape:

Teofimo Lopez Jr. Recent Fights

As mentioned, Teofimo Lopez Jr. has won five bouts in a row, since dropping the only loss of his career in a split decision defeat against George Kambosos Jr. in November 2021.

Following the defeat, he beat Pedro Campa via 7^th round TKO in August 2022. He then scored a split decision win over Sandor Martin four months later.

Then came another big fight as Lopez beat Josh Taylor, in June 2023, via unanimous decision and walked away with the WBO super lightweight title.

Eight months later, Lopez stepped back in the ring and defeated Jamaine Ortiz via unanimous decision. It was a questionable performance by Lopez that drew some criticism.

Four months later, June 2024, Lopez took out Steve Claggett via unanimous decision. This time, he pretty much swept all the rounds with the scores of 120-108, 120-108, 119-109.  

Since the Taylor fight, Lopez’s opponents have been scrutinized as he’s yet to face someone at least the level of Taylor.

Despite critics questioning Lopez’s recent opponents, the champ has publicly thrown shade at Barboza’s opponents instead:

“He’s barely won his last three fights. He’s been having split decisions? We’re speaking facts here. He’s going to find out on May 2nd. That’s what it’s all about. Not just him, but everybody else that thinks we’re not at our peak. A lot of questions are going to be answered that night. I feel like Barboza is going to walk into something. Sandor Martin beat Mikey Garcia, and Jamaine Ortiz fought Vasily Lomachenko and gave him a run for his money until the championship rounds. These fighters I’ve been facing, it’s not easy.”

Teofimo Lopez Jr. Odds

Further emphasizing the point that Lopez’s last two opponents were a notch below, is the fact that oddsmakers had him as a -1000 to -1100 favorite over Claggett and Ortiz. Prior to those bouts, Lopez was the under dog of +140 to +200 versus Josh Taylor.

Outside of the Taylor fight, Lopez was a comfortable favorite in most of his pro fights that we can examine the betting data for.

Arnold Barboza Jr. Recent Fights

Unlike Lopez, Arnold Barboza Jr. has been a very active fighter over the last few years. In fact, over the last 16 months, Barboza has fought four times already.

In January 2024, he beat Xolisani Ndongeni via 8^th round RTD. He followed that up with a split decision win over Sean McComb in April 2024.

Then came the Jose Carlos Ramirez fight, which Barboza was the underdog. He was able to win that bout via a close unanimous decision with the scores of 97-93, 96-94, 96-94.

His most recent fight was in February, when he beat Jack Catterall via split decision. The upset victory capped off a strong 16-month period and put him in line for the WBO title.

As for the man he will be facing on Friday, Barboza Jr. isn’t as enamored with Lopez Jr. as others are:

“I think he’s an athlete. I think he’s athletic, but I’m also athletic. It’s gonna be a great fight. I think he’s athletic. I think he has some good traits.You know, as a fighter you gotta give props when props are due, right? I think he’s a good fighter, but I don’t think he’s anything special.”

But that wasn’t all. Barboza Jr. also went on to declare that he’s going to win this fight in a one-sided outing:

“I’ve always said it. You know, I think people think he’s gonna beat me. But I’m gonna come out with the upset. I think I’m gonna make it one-sided and people are gonna be surprised.”

Arnold Barboza Jr. Odds

Barboza Jr. is the underdog against Lopez with odds ranging from +180 to +200. It’s the third consecutive bout where Barboza was the underdog. He was also an underdog against Jack Catterall and Jose Carlos Ramirez.

The last fight that Barboza Jr. was the favorite, came in April 2024, when he fought Sean McComb. Barboza was a betting favorite of -900 to -1400.

Teofimo Lopez Jr. vs. Arnold Barboza Jr. Predictions

What makes this fight exciting isn’t just the matchup inside the ring, but also the bad blood that’s between the two outside of the ring. A month ago, Lopez slapped Barboza Jr. at a presser. Additionally, the challenger already had beef with Lopez Jr. because he felt that the champ had been avoiding him over the last few years.

Admittedly, Lopez Jr. is the more talented fighter of the two. But what frustrates me about him is his execution of a fight plan inside the ring. He completely blew it with Kambosos by fighting his fight and not a more tactically sound boxing match.

Lopez is athletic, quick, and has a great all-around skillset but he often throws it out the window in order to brawl with others instead of outboxing them and steamrolling to the decision victory.

Then, when you add some questionable matchmaking over the last few years, it’s easy to see why critics and fans get frustrated with the talented champ. You can include me in this camp as well.

With that said, Lopez should be able to outbox Barboza Jr. and win this fight on points. As long as he doesn’t get into prolonged exchanges of pocket punching, I see Lopez running away with this fight and hopefully, right into a title unification bout.

Bet: Teofimo Lopez Jr. (-240)

The Teofimo Lopez Jr. vs. Arnold Barboza Jr. Prop Bets

The following Teofimo Lopez Jr. vs. Arnold Barboza Jr. prop bets are courtesy of BetUS:

Over/Under 10.5 rounds

• Over 10.5 (-450)
• Under 10.5 (+325)

Six of Lopez’s last eight fights have gone Over 10.5 rounds. Barboza Jr. has just one 12-round fight on his resume and that was his most recent bout against Catterall. It went over 10.5 rounds.

Bet: Over 10.5 (-450)

Will Fight go the distance?

• Yes (-450)
• No (+300)

Not only do I think this fight is going Over 10.5 rounds, I also believe it will go the distance. 21 of Barboza’s 32 pro fights have gone the distance including eight of his last nine bouts. Lopez has gone the distance in six of his last seven fights including four in a row.

Bet: Yes (-450)

Method of Victory

• Barboza via TKO/KO/DQ (+1100)
• Barboza via decision (+300)
• Lopez via TKO/KO/DQ (+400)
• Lopez via decision (-125)
• Draw (+1600)

Based on the analysis and prop bets above, I’m taking Lopez to win via decision. Barboza Jr. has never been stopped before and Lopez seems to be going the distance in most of his fight the last handful of years.

Bet: Lopez via decision (-125)

Betting on Rounds

• Either Winner in rounds 1-4 (+1400)
• Either Winner in rounds 5-8 (+750)
• Either Winner in rounds 9-12 (+850)
• Fight To Go The Distance (-450)

I fully expect this fight to go the distance, but if you want some risk on your Lopez vs. Barboza Jr. bets, then take the option of either fighter winning in rounds 9-12, which offers great value. This will be Barboza’s second career 12-round fight.

Bet: Fight To Go The Distance (-450)

What’s Next For The Lopez Jr. vs. Arnold Barboza Jr. Winner?

Ryan Garcia has come out and said he rather fight Lopez Jr. next than Devin Haney. I highly doubt that will happen. Yet, Lopez is planning on going up to welterweight in the near future. It appears that junior welterweight isn’t where he wants to be.

Lopez acknowledges that Garcia and Haney are both in the welterweight division and that he might have to fight them. More than likely, he will take on the weakest champ in the welterweight division next, a top contender in the welterweight division, or a unification bout in the junior welterweight division.