Davey O’Brien Award Odds and Predictions 2026

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Davey O’Brien Award Odds and Predictions for 2026 begin with Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr as the +500 favorite, but Ohio State’s Julian Sayin offers the stronger price-based case at +800. The market has completely changed since the previous version of this page, with 2025 winner Fernando Mendoza no longer part of the field and an entirely new group occupying the top of the board.

Carr is our most likely winner, while Sayin is the ScoresAndStats prediction at the current price. Texas A&M quarterback Marcel Reed provides the most interesting longshot at +2000. Several of the same quarterbacks also appear prominently in the 2026 Heisman Trophy odds and predictions, but the Davey O’Brien Award removes every non-quarterback from the competition.

Quick Betting Takeaways

• Market favorite: CJ Carr at +500.
• Most likely winner: CJ Carr, although his price is already demanding.
• Best overall value: Julian Sayin at +800 or better.
• Best longshot: Marcel Reed at +2000 or better.

Current Davey O’Brien Award Odds 2026

Carr and Arch Manning occupy the top two positions, followed by a three-way group of Dante Moore, Darian Mensah and Sayin at +800. The board remains competitive enough that one major September performance could quickly produce a new favorite.

The market extends well beyond the first 12 quarterbacks. Several proven starters are available at +2500 or longer, although each requires a substantial jump in production, team success or national visibility.

How to Handicap the Davey O’Brien Award

The strongest Davey O’Brien candidates normally combine elite quarterback production, strong efficiency, national relevance and memorable performances in major games. Passing yards matter, but the award is not simply given to the quarterback who finishes first in one statistical category.

The selection committee also evaluates quarterback ability, athletic performance, leadership, academics, character, teamwork and sportsmanship. Fan voting can provide bonus ballots during the semifinalist, finalist and winner rounds, but the national selection committee remains central to the process.

Team context matters because quarterbacks on playoff contenders receive more nationally televised opportunities. The leading candidates are attached to many of the strongest teams in the current college football championship odds, including Ohio State, Oregon, Notre Dame, Texas, Georgia, Miami and Texas A&M.

Team success is not an absolute requirement. An overwhelming statistical season can keep a quarterback in the race even when his team misses the playoff. Bettors should therefore weigh individual efficiency and total production against schedule strength, team ranking and late-season visibility.

2026 Davey O’Brien Award Favorites

CJ Carr, Notre Dame (+500)

CJ Carr is the most likely 2026 Davey O’Brien Award winner, but +500 leaves little room for an ordinary season. The price carries an implied probability of approximately 16.7 percent before accounting for the sportsbook’s margin.

Carr completed 66.6 percent of his passes for 2,741 yards and 24 touchdowns during his first full season as Notre Dame’s starter. He also averaged more than nine yards per attempt, demonstrating that his efficiency was not produced entirely through short, low-risk passes.

Notre Dame begins the season ranked No. 4, giving Carr an immediate national platform. A move toward 3,300 passing yards and 30 touchdowns would create a finalist-level profile if the Fighting Irish remain near the top of the rankings.

The concern is price. Carr has less established rushing production than Manning, Chambliss or Reed, so his case depends more heavily on passing efficiency and Notre Dame’s record. He is the rightful favorite, but we would rather bet him at +600 or longer than accept the current +500.

Arch Manning, Texas (+550)

Arch Manning owns the highest total-touchdown ceiling among the two shortest-priced candidates. He threw for 3,163 yards and 26 touchdowns in 2025 while adding 399 rushing yards and a team-high 10 rushing scores.

The rushing production gives Manning more ways to build an award résumé. He does not necessarily need to lead the country in passing if he approaches 40 combined touchdowns while leading Texas through another demanding SEC schedule.

Texas enters the season ranked No. 5 and remains one of the leading teams in the 2026 SEC football odds and predictions. Games against highly ranked opponents will create repeated opportunities for Manning to produce the signature moments that move individual award markets.

His 61.4 percent completion rate was considerably lower than the numbers produced by Carr, Moore and Sayin. Manning must combine the explosive plays with greater week-to-week accuracy to justify a +550 ticket. The name recognition is already included in the price.

Dante Moore, Oregon (+800)

Dante Moore offers one of the safest statistical profiles in the field. He completed 71.8 percent of his passes for 3,565 yards and 30 touchdowns while leading Oregon to the College Football Playoff semifinal during the 2025 season.

Oregon enters 2026 ranked No. 2, its highest preseason position in program history. Moore should remain attached to a playoff contender, and a late-season matchup against Ohio State gives him a potential award-defining stage.

The +800 price is reasonable rather than exceptional. Moore has the efficiency, production and team context required to win, but he must separate from Sayin and Carr while navigating a difficult Big Ten schedule.

Darian Mensah, Miami (+800)

Darian Mensah produced the largest 2025 passing total among the primary favorites. He completed 334 of 500 attempts for 3,973 yards, 34 touchdowns and only six interceptions while leading Duke to the ACC championship.

Mensah now moves to Miami, which begins the season ranked No. 7 after reaching the national championship game. The Hurricanes also possess one of the country’s best young receivers in Malachi Toney, giving Mensah a proven centerpiece in the passing game.

The transfer creates both opportunity and risk. Mensah joins a stronger overall roster, but he must learn a new offense and establish timing with new receivers. At +800, the market is offering little additional compensation for that adjustment period.

Best Davey O’Brien Award Value: Julian Sayin (+800)

Julian Sayin is the best combination of established production, team strength and current price. At +800, the market assigns him an implied probability of approximately 11.1 percent, a number that appears low for a returning Davey O’Brien finalist leading the preseason No. 1 team.

Sayin completed 77 percent of his passes for 3,610 yards and 32 touchdowns in 2025. His completion percentage established a Big Ten record and ranked among the best single-season marks in FBS history. He also became a Heisman Trophy finalist during his first full year as Ohio State’s starter.

The supporting environment is difficult to improve. Ohio State enters as the leading team in the Big Ten football odds and predictions, while Jeremiah Smith is the favorite in the Fred Biletnikoff Award odds and predictions. Sayin has an elite receiver, a proven offensive system and multiple nationally significant games.

The schedule provides risk, but it also gives Sayin a clearer path to separate from the field. Ohio State plays at Texas and Indiana while hosting Oregon. Winning two or three of those games with strong individual performances could move Sayin from +800 into the +300 to +400 range.

The main concern is statistical regression. Sayin set an extremely high accuracy standard in 2025, and even a strong 70 percent season could appear less impressive by comparison. The current price still compensates bettors for that risk more effectively than Carr’s +500 or Manning’s +550.

Best Davey O’Brien Award Longshot: Marcel Reed (+2000)

Marcel Reed is unusually accomplished for a quarterback carrying +2000 odds. He was one of three finalists for the 2025 Davey O’Brien Award, yet the current market gives him an implied probability of only approximately 4.8 percent.

Reed enters 2026 with 5,407 career passing yards, 41 passing touchdowns, 1,085 rushing yards and 14 rushing scores. He is one of the few returning quarterbacks with more than 5,000 career passing yards and 1,000 career rushing yards.

Texas A&M begins the season ranked No. 8, so Reed does not need an unlikely team transformation to enter the national discussion. If the Aggies contend for the SEC and Reed increases his passing efficiency, the market will have difficulty keeping a returning finalist near 20-1.

The risk is that Reed’s passing numbers may remain behind the elite totals produced by Sayin, Moore, Mensah and Chambliss. His rushing ability strengthens the profile, but he likely needs Texas A&M to remain inside the top 10 and compete for a conference championship.

Best Davey O’Brien Award Longshot: Marcel Reed at +2000 or better.

Other Davey O’Brien Award Contenders

Josh Hoover, Indiana (+900)

Josh Hoover threw for 3,472 yards and 27 touchdowns at TCU in 2025 before transferring to defending national champion Indiana. His career résumé includes 9,629 passing yards and 71 touchdowns, so production is not the concern.

The question is whether Hoover can immediately reproduce Fernando Mendoza’s command of the Indiana offense. At +900, bettors receive only a slightly longer price than Moore, Mensah or Sayin while accepting significantly more transition risk.

Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (+900)

Trinidad Chambliss is one of the most complete dual-threat candidates. He threw for 3,937 yards and 22 touchdowns with only three interceptions during Ole Miss’ 2025 playoff run, then added 527 rushing yards and eight scores.

Chambliss already has the efficiency, rushing production and SEC experience required to contend. The issue is that +900 provides only a modest discount from the primary favorites. His passing-touchdown total must rise for the price to become a clear bargain.

Gunner Stockton, Georgia (+1200)

Gunner Stockton completed 69.7 percent of his passes for 2,894 yards, 24 touchdowns and five interceptions in 2025. Georgia finished 12-2, won the SEC championship and enters 2026 ranked No. 3.

Stockton has the team environment but needs a substantial statistical increase. Another season near 2,900 passing yards would probably leave him behind quarterbacks approaching 3,500 to 4,000 yards. The +1200 price is playable only for bettors projecting a more aggressive Georgia passing offense.

ScoresAndStats Davey O’Brien Award Prediction

Julian Sayin is the ScoresAndStats prediction to win the 2026 Davey O’Brien Award. Carr may be the single most likely winner, but Sayin provides the better relationship between probability and price.

A +800 ticket requires Sayin to win more than 11.1 percent of the time to produce positive theoretical value before accounting for sportsbook margin. His returning-finalist status, elite accuracy, 32-touchdown season and position as quarterback of the preseason No. 1 team support a probability above that threshold.

The current +800 is playable. If the price shortens below +700 before Ohio State produces meaningful results, the value becomes much thinner. At +650 or shorter, waiting for early-season volatility is preferable to chasing the preseason move.

The prediction would weaken if Sayin’s efficiency declines sharply, Ohio State falls out of playoff contention or another quarterback creates a clear statistical gap. Carr, Manning, Moore and Mensah are close enough that this market should remain fluid throughout September.

Weekly results will eventually matter more than preseason expectations, and bettors can track those developments through the latest college football picks and previews.

Our 2026 Davey O’Brien Award Prediction: Julian Sayin at +800 or better.

2026 Davey O’Brien Award Timeline

The official 2026 preseason watch list contains 30 quarterbacks. The field is not closed, and a player does not have to appear on the preseason list to become a semifinalist or win the award. The complete list and selection schedule are available through the official Davey O’Brien Foundation announcement.

Recent Davey O’Brien Award Winners

Fernando Mendoza and Cam Ward won the past two awards after transferring to Indiana and Miami. That recent history keeps first-year transfers such as Mensah and Hoover relevant, although both must prove that their new offensive situations can produce immediate results.

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