PFL Odds and Predictions 2026: Tampa Results & Chicago Preview

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PFL Odds and Predictions have moved into a new phase after the completion of PFL Tampa on August 22. Cris Cyborg remained the promotion’s women’s featherweight champion with a unanimous decision over Ketlen Vieira, while Gadzhi Rabadanov and Luke Trainer produced two of the night’s most impressive finishes.

The event also closed the PFL Summer Series and officially moved the promotion toward its fall schedule. PFL MENA returns October 2, PFL Africa holds tournament semifinals in Morocco on October 10 and the next major U.S. card takes place October 16 at Wintrust Arena in Chicago.

PFL Chicago will be headlined by Liz Carmouche against Jena Bishop for the inaugural PFL Women’s Flyweight World Championship. The matchup is a rematch of the 2025 PFL World Tournament final, where Carmouche stopped Bishop in Round 3.

Our early PFL Chicago prediction is Carmouche to defeat Bishop again. No broadly available major-book moneyline was confirmed at the time of this update, so our betting approach is based on target prices rather than presenting speculative odds as live markets.

Carmouche becomes playable around -175 or better on our numbers. Bishop becomes more interesting as an underdog if the market eventually pushes her beyond +180 because her submission game has looked particularly dangerous during her two 2026 victories.

PFL Odds Update

The most important update is that the Tampa betting markets are now closed.

Cyborg defeated Vieira by unanimous decision, Rabadanov stopped Reeder in the opening round and Trainer produced a second-round TKO against Roland Dunlap.

That means bettors should no longer treat Tampa moneylines or prop recommendations as actionable picks. The page now grades those positions and looks ahead to the next betting opportunities.

The next major U.S. PFL matchup already announced is Carmouche vs. Bishop II in Chicago. Sportsbook markets were not broadly available when this article was updated, so the numbers below are betting thresholds rather than claimed current lines.

PFL and MMA lines can vary significantly between operators, particularly on smaller cards and method-of-victory markets. Bettors can compare available operators through the ScoresAndStats sportsbook reviews.

PFL Tampa Results

PFL Tampa took place at Benchmark International Arena and produced a mix of competitive decisions, dominant finishes and one significant injury stoppage.

Cyborg won the five-round main event over Vieira by unanimous decision. Rabadanov overwhelmed Reeder with ground control and punches before securing a first-round TKO.

Sabrinna de Sousa produced one of the largest statement wins of the card by defeating former title challenger Taila Santos. Trainer handed Dunlap his first professional loss with a front kick and follow-up punches.

On the preliminary card, Daniel Marcos defeated Magomed Magomedov after Magomedov suffered a serious shoulder injury. Javid Basharat, Dakota Bush, Natan Schulte and Gino Van Steenis also earned victories.

Eoin Sheridan delivered one of the most memorable finishes of the night, knocking out James Vake with a knee late in Round 1.

Cris Cyborg vs. Ketlen Vieira Result

Cyborg extended her legendary career with a unanimous decision victory over Vieira.

The matchup changed dramatically at weigh-ins when Vieira came in at 152.2 pounds, more than seven pounds above the original featherweight championship limit. Cyborg still accepted the fight and successfully made championship weight herself.

Vieira made the fight more competitive than many expected. She found success in individual striking exchanges and created some grappling moments, but Cyborg controlled enough of the fight to win all three official scorecards.

The judges scored the fight 49-46, 48-47 and 49-46.

Cyborg improved to 30-2 and remained the PFL women’s featherweight champion.

The method was the important betting lesson. Our outright Cyborg prediction was correct, but the KO/TKO lean did not cash.

Vieira proved durable enough to survive five rounds, reinforcing why heavily favored fighters should not automatically be paired with finish props.

Gadzhi Rabadanov vs. Tracy Reeder Result

Rabadanov produced the most dominant performance near the top of the Tampa card.

The former PFL tournament champion used his wrestling and ground control to dictate the fight against Reeder. Once he established top position, the difference in grappling quality became obvious.

Rabadanov finished with punches at 4:38 of Round 1.

The result improved his record to 28-5-2 and strengthened his position among the top PFL lightweights.

The original version of this page had Rabadanov scheduled against Jakub Kaszuba before the opponent changed. That means the original exact matchup prediction became obsolete, but the broader belief that Rabadanov deserved support remained correct.

Biggest Winners From PFL Tampa

Sabrinna de Sousa

De Sousa may have created the biggest ranking change of the entire event.

She remained undefeated by defeating Taila Santos, a former world title challenger and one of the most established women on the PFL roster.

A convincing win against that level of opponent immediately places de Sousa in the women’s flyweight championship conversation.

Luke Trainer

Trainer validated our pre-fight prediction with a violent second-round finish.

The 6-foot-6 light heavyweight used a front kick to hurt Dunlap before finishing with punches. Trainer has now won six consecutive fights and continues moving toward a potential title opportunity.

Eoin Sheridan

Sheridan’s U.S. debut produced one of the night’s most memorable knockouts.

His first-round knee against Vake pushed his professional record to 6-0 and immediately increased his profile in the PFL welterweight division.

Daniel Marcos

Marcos officially defeated Magomedov by TKO early in Round 3, although the result came after Magomedov suffered a shoulder injury.

The circumstances make it difficult to draw a clean stylistic conclusion from the win, but Marcos still left Tampa with a victory in his PFL debut.

Next PFL Events in 2026

PFL Tampa completed the promotion’s summer U.S. run, but the schedule resumes in October with regional and global events.

PFL MENA 11 takes place October 2 in Riyadh. PFL Africa then stages tournament semifinals in Casablanca on October 10.

The next U.S. card is PFL Chicago on October 16. Additional global events are scheduled for Dubai on November 14 and Lyon on December 19.

PFL Chicago 2026

PFL returns to Wintrust Arena on Friday, October 16, with a championship fight at the top of the card.

Liz Carmouche faces Jena Bishop for the inaugural PFL Women’s Flyweight World Championship.

The matchup replaces the anticipated possibility of Carmouche facing Dakota Ditcheva, who suffered hand injuries during her recent victory and is unavailable for the October date.

Carmouche and Bishop already know each other extremely well. They fought in the 2025 PFL World Tournament women’s flyweight final, where Carmouche scored a third-round knockout.

The rematch is not simply a replay of last year’s fight. Bishop has responded to the loss with two first-round submissions in 2026, while Carmouche returned in June and submitted former UFC contender Viviane Araujo.

Both women therefore enter Chicago with momentum.

Liz Carmouche vs. Jena Bishop Prediction

Carmouche receives the early prediction because she owns the broader MMA skill set and already solved this matchup once.

She defeated Bishop by third-round TKO in August 2025 after gradually taking over the fight with striking, physicality and experience.

Carmouche has since improved to 26-8 and enters the rematch on a four-fight winning streak. Her most recent appearance ended with a second-round guillotine submission against Araujo.

That result matters because Carmouche does not need to avoid Bishop’s strongest area completely. She is experienced enough in grappling exchanges to survive bad positions while still possessing the superior striking threat.

Bishop remains extremely dangerous. Seven of her 11 professional victories have come by submission, and both of her 2026 wins ended in the opening round.

She submitted Borena Tsertsvadze with a rear-naked choke in April and Ariane Lipski da Silva with an armbar in June.

That creates a clear tactical fight. Bishop wants prolonged grappling exchanges where her submission skill can become the dominant factor. Carmouche wants to force Bishop to work through strikes and physical clinch pressure before those positions develop.

The first meeting suggests Carmouche can accomplish that more consistently.

Early PFL Chicago Prediction: Liz Carmouche to defeat Jena Bishop.

Carmouche vs. Bishop Betting Strategy

Picking Carmouche to win does not mean every potential moneyline will offer value.

The first matchup closed with Carmouche as a meaningful favorite. She justified that price by eventually stopping Bishop, but bettors should not automatically assume the rematch deserves an even larger number.

Bishop has improved since the first fight and enters after consecutive first-round submissions.

Our early projection makes Carmouche playable around -175 or better. Once the price moves beyond approximately -200, the risk-to-reward becomes much less attractive.

If Carmouche opens as a major favorite, the method-of-victory market may again offer a better route. Decision or TKO would be preferred over a submission prop because those represent the more natural extensions of her striking and attritional advantages.

Fight-duration markets will also deserve attention. The first fight reached the third round, but both women have produced faster finishes in 2026.

We currently prefer a conservative “fight reaches Round 3” type of angle rather than automatically betting the full five-round over before the actual market is available.

How Jena Bishop Can Upset Liz Carmouche

Bishop’s upset case is built almost entirely around grappling pressure and submission threats.

She is a high-level Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist who has successfully transferred that skill into MMA. Her seven submission victories account for most of her professional wins.

The two 2026 performances have made that strength even more obvious.

Bishop finished Tsertsvadze with a rear-naked choke in Round 1 and then submitted Lipski da Silva with an armbar before the end of the opening round.

Her path against Carmouche involves getting ahead early rather than allowing the former champion to settle into a five-round rhythm.

Bishop needs takedowns, cage control and prolonged top position. She cannot afford to spend extended periods exchanging at boxing range, where Carmouche carries the cleaner power and more proven durability.

If sportsbooks eventually offer Bishop around +200 or longer, the submission threat becomes much more interesting from a betting perspective.

At a shorter underdog price, Carmouche’s broader win conditions remain more attractive.

What Happened to the PFL World Tournament?

The PFL World Tournament was the centerpiece of the promotion’s 2025 global season.

That tournament format concluded in August 2025 after champions were crowned across multiple divisions.

The 2026 global calendar has used a different structure built around individual PFL events, divisional world championships and regional PFL Africa and PFL MENA competitions.

That distinction is important for bettors searching for PFL World Tournament odds and predictions. There is not currently an active 2026 global World Tournament bracket equivalent to the 2025 format.

The current betting opportunities are instead attached to event-specific moneylines, championship fights and the regional tournament structures.

PFL Africa does continue to use a tournament format in 2026, with semifinal winners in Morocco advancing toward divisional finals.

2025 PFL World Tournament Winners

The 2025 PFL World Tournament produced champions across eight weight classes and remains relevant because several winners continue to occupy major positions on the current PFL roster.

Liz Carmouche captured the women’s flyweight tournament by stopping Bishop in their first matchup. Alfie Davis defeated Rabadanov to win the lightweight tournament, while Marcirley Alves claimed the bantamweight title.

Those results continue shaping current matchmaking even though the global tournament format itself is not being repeated in the same form during 2026.

PFL Fighters to Watch After Tampa

Several Tampa winners should create interesting betting markets the next time they appear.

Gadzhi Rabadanov

Rabadanov’s first-round destruction of Reeder reinforced his status as one of the promotion’s strongest lightweight wrestlers.

His future betting value will depend on whether sportsbooks price him as an overwhelming favorite or give bettors access to more attractive wrestling-based method props.

Sabrinna de Sousa

De Sousa moved from prospect to legitimate title contender by beating Santos.

Her undefeated record and striking performance will likely make her more expensive in future markets, so early lines may be particularly important.

Luke Trainer

Trainer’s size and finishing ability remain difficult to replicate at light heavyweight.

He has now won six straight and should receive a higher-level opponent in his next appearance.

Eoin Sheridan

Sheridan’s undefeated record and highlight-reel finish make him one of the most interesting emerging welterweights on the roster.

The next matchup will reveal whether sportsbooks aggressively inflate his price after a spectacular U.S. debut.

How to Bet PFL MMA

PFL betting follows many of the same principles as UFC wagering, but smaller markets can produce wider sportsbook differences and more dramatic late movement.

Wait for Final Fight Cards

PFL Tampa demonstrated exactly why this matters. Several fights changed between the initial article publication and event week.

A strong handicap on Fighter A against one opponent does not automatically remain valid if the replacement presents a completely different style.

Watch the Weigh-Ins

Vieira missing the featherweight limit by more than seven pounds fundamentally changed the Cyborg matchup before the opening bell.

Weight misses can affect title eligibility, bankroll strategy and perceptions of cardio or physical strength.

Separate Winner Predictions From Bets

Cyborg was correctly predicted to win Tampa, but the fight going to decision shows why a correct fighter prediction can coexist with a losing method prop.

The moneyline, method of victory and round total are three different bets and should be evaluated independently.

Price Grapplers Carefully

PFL contains several elite wrestlers and submission specialists capable of dominating less experienced opponents.

That often creates heavily juiced moneylines. In those cases, submission props, decision markets or round totals can provide more attractive alternatives.

Understand Implied Probability

A fighter priced at -200 must win more than two-thirds of the time to justify that number before accounting for sportsbook margin.

That is why our early Carmouche prediction includes a betting threshold rather than simply saying to bet her regardless of price.

The ScoresAndStats MMA betting guide explains moneylines, round totals, method props and other concepts that also apply to PFL wagering.

Final PFL Odds and Predictions

PFL Tampa confirmed several important trends while creating the foundation for the promotion’s fall schedule.

Cyborg remained champion with another veteran performance, Rabadanov reminded bettors how dominant his wrestling can be and Trainer continued his rise through the light heavyweight division.

The most important forward-looking matchup is Carmouche against Bishop in Chicago.

Carmouche deserves to be favored because she already defeated Bishop and owns more ways to win across five rounds.

Bishop’s back-to-back first-round submissions make the rematch more competitive than simply looking at the first result would suggest.

Our projected fair range makes Carmouche attractive around -175 or better. If sportsbooks move her well beyond -200, bettors should either wait for method props or consider whether Bishop’s underdog price properly compensates for her submission upside.

Until actual Chicago markets become widely available, avoiding invented odds is more valuable than forcing a pick.

Our Early PFL Chicago Prediction: Liz Carmouche to defeat Jena Bishop.

Our Carmouche Moneyline Target: -175 or better.

Our Bishop Underdog Threshold: +180 or longer.

Our Preferred Method Lean: Carmouche by decision or TKO if the eventual prop provides plus-money value.

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