2026 American Express Golf Tournament: Odds and Picks

The American Express is a three-course rotation birdie-fest in the Coachella Valley desert, where warm weather, soft greens, and generous scoring opportunities keep the accelerator down. With multiple layouts in play, the profile tends to reward players who can rack up chances with approach precision and stay ruthless on par-4 scoring. This is a week where you want your outrights tied to repeatable birdie creation, not a fragile “one-round heater” thesis.

The PGA Tour odds board is shaped with a clear headliner and a compact next tier, which forces a decision: pay for the most likely win path or shop numbers that better match realistic routes to -24 or lower. If you’re scanning top golf betting sites for golf picks this week, the key is pricing discipline this event can produce elite winners, but it also creates enough volatility for mid-tier profiles to matter (a single low round in the rotation can reset the entire leaderboard fast). The best value tends to live where course fit and birdie rate outscore name value in the market.

For more analysis on this tournament, check out our best golf picks of the week.

Where Is the The American Express Played?

The American Express is played at PGA West in La Quinta, California, USA, using a three-course rotation: La Quinta Country Club, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and La Quinta Country Club. The scoring environment is built for low numbers, so the handicap should emphasize repeatable birdie creation rather than survival golf. Stat archetypes that translate best are SG:APP (to generate volume looks) and par-4 scoring (to keep pace in a shootout). The winning path is steady SG:APP plus enough putting to convert.

How To Watch the The American Express?

TV networks: Golf Channel (Thursday–Friday, 4–7 p.m. ET), ESPN+ (Thursday–Sunday full coverage). Streaming: ESPN+, Peacock.

What Is the The American Express Purse?

The total purse is $9,200,000, with a winner share of $1,656,000.

Who Won the The American Express 2025?

Sepp Straka won The American Express in 2025 at -25 (263) with rounds of 65-64-64-70. There’s no playoff detail provided, but the takeaway is clear: this event sets a firm “birdies required” baseline, and you need four-day scoring to hold position when the rotation produces a low-round surge.

The 2026 The American Express Odds

Here’s the board (top tier through long-range contenders):

Player	Odds
Scottie Scheffler	+275
Ben Griffin	+1900
Ludvig Aberg	+2000
Patrick Cantlay	+2200
Sam Burns	+2200
Russell Henley	+2200
Robert MacIntyre	+2500
Matt Fitzpatrick	+2700
Si Woo Kim	+2700
Harry Hall	+3000
Sepp Straka	+3300
Harris English	+4000
Taylor Pendrith	+4000
Alex Noren	+4000
Rasmus Hojgaard	+4500
Michael Thorbjornsen	+4500
Rickie Fowler	+5000
Min Woo Lee	+5500
Davis Thompson	+5500
Jason Day	+5500

Scheffler at +275 creates a top-heavy market where you’re paying for the most complete scoring profile, not just “contention.” The next band is relatively tight several players priced as plausible winners so your edge comes from identifying which profiles can actually keep up with a rotation-driven birdie pace without needing an unrealistic outlier putting week.

The clean value pockets are +1900 to +3300, where you can buy legitimate win paths tied to birdie rate, approach play, and par-4 efficiency. In this event, course fit and conversion traits tend to outperform brand name when the tournament becomes a week-long race to the mid-20s under par.

Continue reading our analysis below, and make sure to check out the top handicappers to see how they’re cutting and slicing this field.

The American Express Favorites

Favorites are priced for “in the mix,” so the handicap must be cleaner than narrative.

Scottie Scheffler (+275)

Scheffler’s recent baseline is elite: top-10 in all 10 of his last 10 starts in 2025, with multiple wins including back-to-back. In a birdie-fest, that matters because it reduces the number of “dead rounds” that remove you from outright range.

His PGA West history in the notes supports comfort in this scoring environment: 3rd (2020, -21), T11 (2023, -22), T17 (2024, -21). The stats levers are aligned to a rotation shootout SG:T (elite), SG:APP (top-5), Birdie % (high), Par-4 scoring (leader) which is the cleanest “probability profile” on the board. At +275, you’re paying for probability, so the condition is simple: you play it only if you’re comfortable buying the shortest number in a tournament that can flip quickly when one course yields a 60.

Ludvig Aberg (+2000)

Aberg’s recent finishes show consistent high-end positioning late in 2025: T3–T23–T20–T21–T7, plus T30 at the 2026 Sentry. That matters here because this event rewards sustained scoring and repeated birdie creation more than a single hot stretch.

The fit case is power plus precision in a scoring setup: SG:APP (elite) and SG:OTT (strong) with Birdie % (high) and Driving distance (long). Course history is a debut, so you’re wagering on skill translation rather than prior comfort. At +2000, you’re paying for probability relative to the mid-tier, and the condition is that his iron play drives enough looks to offset any first-time rotation variance.

Patrick Cantlay (+2200)

Cantlay’s form is win-adjacent: top-5 in three of his last five, with a strong scoring average around -10 across that stretch. In a week where the target can quickly become -24 or better, consistent scoring weeks are the price of entry.

His PGA West history includes genuine contention: 2nd (2021, -22) and 9th (2022, -18), with additional made-event experience across the last few editions. The stats support a repeatable path SG:APP (high), GIR (top), Par-4 scoring (strong), SG:P (solid) which is what you want when everyone is making birdies and you need fewer “empty” holes. At +2200, you’re paying for probability, and the condition is that his approach play stays sharp enough to keep the putter in constant opportunity.

Sam Burns (+2200)

Burns has delivered ceiling outcomes recently: two top-5s and three top-10s in his last five. That matters because this event often becomes a conversion contest on soft greens, and you need a player who can actually win, not just place.

His PGA West history reads like a course fit: 6th (2024, -25) and 11th (2023, -22) with another 6th (2020, -19). The stats lean directly into the tournament script SG:P (elite), Birdie % (leader), SG:APP (consistent) which is a strong combination for a rotation birdie-fest. At +2200, you’re paying for probability, and the condition is that his approach play is good enough to avoid chasing from too far back before the putter has a chance to separate.

Russell Henley (+2200)

Henley’s recent results are described as consistent top-25s with strong putting weeks in 2025. That profile matters because it suggests a stable weekly baseline, which can be valuable when the event becomes a four-day sprint.

The risk is in the PGA West history provided: T14 (2024) followed by multiple missed cuts from 2020–2023. The stats case still fits the “create chances” requirement SG:APP (elite), Par-4 scoring (strong), GIR (high) but you’re buying a higher-variance course history at a favorite price. At +2200, you’re paying for probability, so the condition is that you only take the number if you believe the current ball-striking baseline is strong enough to override the mixed venue results.

The Best The American Express Betting Value

This section is about “price vs path” alignment.

Ben Griffin (+1900)

Griffin’s recent run includes real winning equity: T19–WON–T32–2nd–T10 in his recent 2025 starts. In a birdie-fest, that matters because it indicates he can both contend and finish, not merely hang around the top 25.

The profile is built for low scoring: SG:APP (strong), GIR (high), Par-4 scoring (efficient), Birdie % (top-tier), plus course history that supports comfort at PGA West (T7 in 2024, T9 in 2023). At +1900, you’re paying for probability more than a true longshot, but the implied win rate is tolerable if you think his approach-and-birdie combination is one of the cleanest non-Scheffler paths on the board.

Si Woo Kim (+2700)

Si Woo brings both upside and relevance: multiple top-10s in 2025 and T11 at the 2026 Sony Open. That matters because he’s shown he can still access high-end finishes in scoring environments, which is the main requirement for outright viability here.

Course history includes a win and additional reps: Won (2021, -23) and 25th (2024, -19), which supports the idea that the rotation doesn’t overwhelm his game. The stats path is coherent for a shootout SG:APP (29th), SG:P (positive), Par-4 scoring (3.98), scoring average (69.72) and the number gives you room for volatility. At +2700, you’re paying for probability with upside, and the bet is easiest to justify when you’re buying “contention equity” rather than demanding flawless four-day control.

The Top The American Express Longshot

Sepp Straka (+3300)

Straka’s number is long enough to matter, and the baseline is as strong as it gets: he is the defending champion with a -25 (263) winning total in 2025. That matters because it’s direct course-proof that he can handle the scoring pace this event demands across the rotation.

The stats path is narrow but relevant: in his 2025 win, the notes point to Birdie % (high, 27 in the win) and SG:P (strong in wins) with Par-4 scoring (solid) holding the scoring foundation together. You’re not asking for perfection you’re asking for the week where his conversion spikes again. The win condition is contention position plus one high-conversion week.

The American Express Predictions

My outright winner pick is Ben Griffin (+1900).

The non-negotiables are form that includes actual closing ability and a profile built to generate birdies in volume. Griffin checks both in the provided notes: a recent win, a runner-up, and multiple strong finishes that indicate the ceiling is present, not theoretical.

The stat scaffolding also fits the desert rotation: strong SG:APP, high GIR, efficient par-4 scoring, and top-tier Birdie %. At +1900, the price is acceptable versus the top tier because you’re not paying the Scheffler premium, but you are still buying a clean, repeatable path to a winning score in the mid-20s under par.

Bet: Ben Griffin (+1900)

The Best The American Express Prop Bets

Check out some of the best prop bets for The American Express:

Scottie Scheffler Top 5 (-135)

This is the conservative way to align with the strongest overall profile without paying the outright premium. The same evidence holds: elite SG:T and SG:APP traits plus consistent recent top-end finishes, which reduces the number of things that must go right to land near the top.

Bet: Scottie Scheffler Top 5 (-135)

Si Woo Kim Top 10 (+600)

This prop leans into a player with documented upside at PGA West and current form that supports top-end outcomes. The number is doing the work: you’re paid for volatility while still targeting a finish range that matches his win/contend history in this event.

Bet: Si Woo Kim Top 10 (+600)

Sepp Straka Top 20 (+490)

You’re buying the defending champion profile without needing a repeat win. In a rotation event where scoring is abundant, a top-20 can cash with one strong low round plus steady conversion the rest of the way.

Bet: Sepp Straka Top 20 (+490)

Lowest Round Under 63 (+250)

The rotation has a history of ultra-low rounds, and this prop matches the “one course goes extremely low” dynamic that can define the week. The risk is conditions suppressing the ceiling, but the payout is priced for that uncertainty.

Bet: Lowest Round Under 63 (+250)

Hole in One Yes (+400)

This is the variance play treat it as a small-stake add-on, not a core position, because the outcome is binary and largely independent of your player positions.

Bet: Hole in One Yes (+400)

The American Express Winners

Year	Winner	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4
2025	Sepp Straka	-25 (263)	65	64	64	70

Straka separated with three straight mid-60s rounds

Then managed a higher closing round to finish the job. The turning point was building margin early in the rotation, which mattered when scoring tightened late. Interesting facts: Defending champion for this year; reached -25 without needing a Sunday shootout. Stats: Three rounds of 64 or better; 54-hole scoring base (65-64-64); closing-round damage control (70).

Year	Winner	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4
2024	Nick Dunlap	-29 (259)	64	65	60	70

Dunlap’s tournament swung on a third-round 60

That effectively reset the win threshold and forced the field into chase mode. The finish held despite a higher final round because the separation was already built. Interesting facts: One ultra-low round can decide the entire week; -29 is one of the deepest winning totals in the list. Stats: R3 60; first three rounds 64-65-60; final-round 70 while holding the lead.

Year	Winner	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4
2023	Jon Rahm	-27 (261)	65	64	65	67

Rahm won by staying on the birdie pace all four days without needing an extreme outlier round.

The turning point was consistent mid-60s scoring that kept pressure on the field through the rotation. Interesting facts: Repeat winner in this recent window; shows the “steady sprint” win path. Stats: Four rounds under par; three rounds of 65 or better; closing 67 to seal.

Year	Winner	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4
2022	Hudson Swafford	-23 (265)	70	65	66	64

Swafford overcame a relatively modest opening round and built momentum

With improving scoring across the weekend. The turning point was a closing 64 that completed the charge to the winning number. Interesting facts: Shows you can win without a low opening day if the weekend conversion arrives; -23 still plays as a common winning neighborhood. Stats: Closing-round 64; rounds improved after R1 70; weekend pace (66-64).

Year	Winner	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4
2021	Si Woo Kim	-23 (265)	66	68	67	64

Kim stayed in range through three rounds and then separated with a final-round 64.

The turning point was the Sunday push that converted contention into a win. Interesting facts: Past winner among this year’s board; illustrates the “late acceleration” win script. Stats: Closing 64; four rounds under par; steady middle rounds (68-67) before the finish.

Year	Winner	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4
2020	Andrew Landry	-26 (262)	66	64	65	67

Landry’s win was built on strong early scoring that created a platform

Then a controlled close that avoided giving it back. The turning point was the second-round 64 that established the week’s scoring shape. Interesting facts: Another reminder that midweek scoring creates the cushion; -26 sits in the typical birdie-fest winning band. Stats: R2 64; first three rounds 66-64-65; closing 67 to finish.

Year	Winner	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4
2019	Adam Long	-26 (262)	63	71	63	65

Long’s week was volatile: a 63 to open, a setback 71, then another 63 to reassert himself before closing in 65.

The turning point was the rebound round that erased the damage and restored the winning pace. Interesting facts: High-variance scoring can still win; multiple low rounds can offset one bad day. Stats: Two rounds of 63 (R1 and R3); bounce-back after 71; closing 65.

Year	Winner	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4
2018	Jon Rahm	-22 (266)	62	70	67	67

Rahm created early separation with a 62, then managed the event with steadier weekend scoring.

The turning point was building that first-round cushion, which reduced the need for late heroics. Interesting facts: Another Rahm win in the recent list; shows the “early blitz + manage” approach. Stats: R1 62; only one round over par threshold-like (70); back-to-back 67s to close.

Year	Winner	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4
2017	Hudson Swafford	-20 (268)	65	65	71	67

Swafford won despite a third-round 71 because the early rounds created enough room to absorb it.

The turning point was the strong start, which made a weekend wobble survivable. Interesting facts: Winning doesn’t require four clean rounds; early pace can buy margin. Stats: Two straight 65s to open; R3 71 setback; closing 67 to hold.

Year	Winner	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4
2016	Jason Dufner	-25 (263)	64	65	64	70

Dufner built his win with three strong rounds before a higher Sunday that still held the lead.

The turning point was sustaining mid-60s scoring for 54 holes to create separation. Interesting facts: Another example of “do enough early, survive late”; -25 is a recurring winning total in this event’s history. Stats: Two rounds of 64; 54-hole base (64-65-64); closing 70 while maintaining margin.

Year	Winner	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4
2015	Bill Haas	-22 (266)	67	63	69	67

Haas positioned himself with a second-round 63 and then played steadier golf through the weekend

To finish at -22. The turning point was that Friday round, which did the separation work. Interesting facts: A single low round can define the win path; this is a week where 63s matter. Stats: R2 63; three rounds in the 60s; closing 67.

Year	Winner	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4
2014	Patrick Reed	-28 (260)	63	63	63	71

Reed effectively won the tournament over the first three days with three straight 63s

Creating a cushion large enough to withstand a final-round 71. The turning point was the sustained three-day blitz that put the event out of reach. Interesting facts: One of the clearest “front-run” wins in the list; -28 sets an elite benchmark. Stats: Three consecutive 63s; 54-hole scoring burst; closing 71 with room to spare.

If you’re interested in betting on PGA Tour golf in 2026, start by tracking the course fit not the hype. These golf betting tips can help: watch the odds early, but place most of your action closer to tee time as weather draws, tee times, and late injury/news updates tighten the market. Focus on course history, key stats for the venue (strokes gained off-the-tee, approach, around-the-green, putting splits), and current form, shop for the best number across sportsbooks, and look for value in top-10/top-20s, head-to-head matchups, or first-round leader bets when conditions line up. With a season full of elite fields and variance, discipline and price shopping will matter just as much as picking the right golfer.