2026 PGA Arnold Palmer Odds, Picks and Predictions

Bay Hill is a par-72, 7,466-yard test with TifEagle Bermudagrass greens, and it’s built to stress long-iron approaches (200+ yards) and decision-making off the tee. With penal rough and water hazards on 15 holes, this is a week where you can’t fake your “non-negotiables” for ball-striking.

It’s a 72-hole stroke-play event with a 69-player field and a cut after 36 holes to the top 50 and ties plus anyone within 10 strokes of the lead. That structure matters for “price vs path” because fewer seats and a real cut can turn the middle of the board into true value pockets.

Sometimes it’s not about scoring it’s “score vs survive.”

Where Is the Arnold Palmer Invitational Played?

The tournament is played at Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Florida, United States.

Format-wise: 72-hole stroke play, 69 players, and a cut after 36 holes to the top 50 and ties plus within 10 strokes of the lead.

At Bay Hill, the winning path starts with long-approach competence and keeping doubles off the card around all that water. If conditions get firm or breezy, it becomes bogey-avoidance forward classic “score vs survive.”

How To Watch the Arnold Palmer Invitational?

TV coverage for the PGA Tour runs Thursday/Friday on Golf Channel (2–6 p.m. ET). Saturday/Sunday include Golf Channel (12:30–2:30 p.m. ET) and NBC (2:30–6 p.m. ET), with streaming on ESPN+.

What Is the Arnold Palmer Invitational Purse?

The total purse is $20,000,000 with a $4,000,000 winner’s share.

2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds

The current odds list has yet to be released. However, you can stay up to date with the latest golf picks of the week until this tournament tees off.

For verified market context, the pre-tournament outright snapshot for 2025 is included in the Betting Recap section below, and make sure to check out the top handicappers to see how they’re cutting and slicing this tournament.

Who Won the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2025?

Russell Henley won the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational at -11, finishing one shot clear of Collin Morikawa at -10.

The pivotal moment was Henley’s chip-in for eagle on 16, which fueled the late rally and flipped the top of the leaderboard in a hurry.

From a “price vs path” lens, this was a reminder that Bay Hill can create real separation via water/rough pressure and long-approach demands and that’s where the value pockets can open even in a small, elite field.

2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Recap

Bay Hill’s setup leans demanding: water is in play across 15 holes, rough is penal, and when conditions firm up (especially with wind exposure), outcomes can swing quickly. The inputs also cite a +0.43 scoring average to par and an increased premium on bogey avoidance and long approaches.

2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds

The following odds came from the beginning of the tournament. Betting lines changed through each round and varied at different sites:

Golfer Odds	Golfer Odds
Scottie Scheffler +320	Hideki Matsuyama +2500
Rory McIlroy +750	Justin Thomas +2800
Ludvig Åberg +1600	Patrick Cantlay +3000
Xander Schauffele +1600	Tommy Fleetwood +3500
Collin Morikawa +2200	Sungjae Im +4500

2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational Notable Finishes

Henley (+4000) — 1st at -11
Morikawa (+2200) — 2nd at -10
Corey Conners (+6250) — 3rd at -9
Michael Kim (+7375) — 4th at -8
Keegan Bradley (+5500) — T5 at -7
Sepp Straka (UNKNOWN) — T5 at -7
Shane Lowry (+4000) — 7th at -6

Golf Betting Takeaways From Bay Hill

The course tilts toward elite ball-strikers because of the long-iron/approach emphasis.
“Price vs path” can favor mid-tier profiles that fit Florida conditions Henley was cited as a viable value look.
Wind is a scoring multiplier here; patient, mistake-minimizing golfers get a cleaner path when it turns “score vs survive.”
Matchups can present opportunity (example cited: Scheffler vs. McIlroy).
In a small field, tee-to-green longshots can stay live longer than they would in full-field events.
Don’t auto-overweight the favorite if conditions add volatility; let the board shape guide risk.

Why Bay Hill Can Push Outcomes Like This

With water on 15 holes and penal rough, Bay Hill doesn’t just punish misses it compounds them. Add big greens that can firm up with wind exposure, and you get quick separation between “avoid the big number” profiles and everyone else.

That’s the mechanism: long-approach stress plus hazard pressure creates scoring swings, and it turns the week into a bogey-avoidance exercise as much as a birdie chase.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Winners

Year	Winner	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4
2025	Russell Henley	-11 (277)	72	68	67	70

2025 — Russell Henley (-11)

Henley’s week is the clean “score vs survive” profile Bay Hill rewards: steady early, then a closing-round push that flipped the board late. He finished 72-68-67-70 to edge Morikawa by one, with the decisive moment coming from a late eagle swing that changed the “price vs path” math in real time.

Year	Winner	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4
2024	Scottie Scheffler	-15 (273)	70	67	70	66

2024 — Scottie Scheffler (-15)

Scheffler ran away from a tight start and turned Sunday into separation golf. The final-round 66 (70-67-70-66) was the closer, and once he got daylight, the market story was simple: elite tee-to-green wins when Bay Hill stops giving freebies.

Year	Winner	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4
2023	Kurt Kitayama	-9 (279)	67	68	72	72

2023 — Kurt Kitayama (-9)

Kitayama’s win was pure volatility management: he opened 67-68, then held on through the weekend with 72-72 while the board stayed crowded. With multiple players tied late, he found the one or two swing shots that mattered and finished the job for his first TOUR win.

Year	Winner	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4
2022	Scottie Scheffler	-5 (283)	70	73	68	72

2022 — Scottie Scheffler (-5)

This was a “survive first, score second” Bay Hill edition. Scheffler’s 70-73-68-72 did enough to win by one over a three-way tie for second, and the week played like a reminder that avoiding the big number can be the most bankable non-negotiable here.

Year	Winner	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4
2021	Bryson DeChambeau	-11 (277)	67	71	68	71

2021 — Bryson DeChambeau (-11)

DeChambeau won with a four-round set that never truly broke: 67-71-68-71, holding off Lee Westwood by one. It was a week where pressure putts and late-hole execution mattered more than “pretty” scoring Bay Hill asked for nerve, and he answered.

Year	Winner	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4
2020	Tyrrell Hatton	-4 (284)	68	69	73	74

2020 — Tyrrell Hatton (-4)

Hatton’s winning number tells you what kind of week it was: hard, grinding, and momentum-resistant. He posted 68-69-73-74 to finish -4, and that’s classic Bay Hill when the course dictates terms and “value pockets” show up in patience rather than birdie runs.

Year	Winner	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4
2019	Francesco Molinari	-12 (276)	69	70	73	64

2019 — Francesco Molinari (-12)

Molinari’s Sunday 64 (69-70-73-64) is the cleanest example on this list of how Bay Hill can flip quickly when someone finds a closing gear. He separated late and turned a week that looked like a traffic jam into a clear win.

Year	Winner	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4
2018	Rory McIlroy	-18 (270)	69	70	67	64

2018 — Rory McIlroy (-18)

McIlroy won with a textbook late accelerator: 69-70-67-64. The final-round 64 was the difference-maker, and it’s the reminder bettors never forget here if conditions soften even a little, Bay Hill can suddenly allow “score” weeks instead of pure “survive” weeks.

Year	Winner	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4
2017	Marc Leishman	-11 (277)	71	66	71	69

2017 — Marc Leishman (-11)

Leishman’s 71-66-71-69 held off the chase at -11 in a finish that rewarded late execution. He didn’t need perfection just the right shots at the right time while others blinked in the closing stretch.

Year	Winner	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4
2016	Jason Day	-17 (271)	66	65	70	70

2016 — Jason Day (-17)

Day sprinted early (66-65), then managed the weekend (70-70) to get home at -17 and win by one. It was a “front-load the work, then protect the lead” win profile still very Bay Hill when the back nine asks direct questions.

Year	Winner	Score	R1	R2	R3	R4
2015	Matt Every	-19 (269)	68	66	69	66

2015 — Matt Every (-19)

Every repeated as champion by finishing with a closing 66, capped by an 18-foot birdie on 18 to win by one.