UFC 316 promises to deliver the goods on Saturday, June 7th, as Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili face off in an epic rematch. 

O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili 2 gives us a huge battle for the men’s Bantamweight title belt, and that alone would make this a card worth tuning into. That’s where the fun stops to close out the night, but it’s not where it starts.

The main card also features a women’s Bantamweight title belt, while big names such as Kelvin Gastelum, Kevin Holland, and Bruno Silva grace this fight card. In fact, this main card continues a trend of exciting action as UFC on ESPN 68 also promises to deliver the goods.

I’ll walk you through the latest UFC 316 odds and highlight my top UFC picks for this card, nudging you in the right direction along the way.

Where To Watch UFC 316?

The main card can be watched on ESPN+ PPV, with the Prelims being shown on ESPN and ESPN+. Fans looking to tune into the Early Prelims will need UFC Fight Pass.

What Time Does UFC 316 Start?

The UFC 316 Early Prelims get the party started at 6:00 pm EST, with the Prelims following at 8:00 pm EST and the main card firing off at 10:00 pm EST.

Where Is UFC 316?

Want to attend UFC 316 live and in person? Head to the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey.

UFC 316 Main Card Odds

Check out the latest UFC 316 odds for the Main Card, courtesy of the top sports betting sites: 

The UFC 316 main card is an exciting one in terms of big names and what’s at risk. It’s not one where a lot of underdogs appear to be in favorable positions, however.

There’s crazy value associated with nasty fighters like Sean O’Malley and Juliana Pena, of course, but with prices of +250 and +450 at most UFC sportsbooks, they simply aren’t expected to get it done.

You can target other values, luckily, as Patchy Mix and Kevin Holland are modest favorites, while Mario Bautista and Vicente Luque are viable upset threats on the other side. Could every single favorite coast to a win on this card? Sure, but I’d rather target some value.

Roll with my UFC 316 main card picks, or read on for some extra analysis for each bout. You can also tap into extra betting assistance by utilizing the best sports betting handicappers available online.

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UFC 316 Predictions For The Main Card

The UFC 316 main card rolls out at 10:00 pm EST on PPV.

Merab Dvalishvili (-320) vs. Sean O’Malley (+250)

There’s no getting around the fact that Merab Dvalishvili is a tough badass that controlled the first meeting between these two studs. Sean O’Malley is an elite finisher who can end fights in a hurry, but Merab made that next to impossible to do and was super aggressive the first time round.

All true, but O’Malley is still capable of knocking Dvalishvili out. He’s also four years younger with a four-inch reach advantage. That could again be a big nothing burger en route to Merab just dominating and working the fight to the ground, but with O’Malley priced at +250 I am willing to take a chance.

Another issue is that O’Malley did hang tight with Merab in the first fight. He wasn’t finished and he went the distance. Merab is not a major threat to end the fight early, either, so we get five rounds of O’Malley’s striking and explosivenss possibly shocking the UFC world.

Bet: Sean O’Malley (+250)

Kayla Harrison (-700) vs. Jualianna Pena (+450)

I think Jualianna Pena is a tough, skilled fighter who has a real shot at the upset here. She’s a fun +450 upset pick if you have the stones to give it a go. She’s certainly been battle tested throughout her career, as two clashes with Amanda Nunes tell us pretty directly.

That said, Kayla Harrison is a force to be reckoned with. She’s bigger than Pena, she’s stronger, she has far better wrestling, and she’s on a mission. Both of these fighters are getting a bit long in the tooth, but Harrison is the UFC’s new superstar and it feels like she’s destined to nab this title.

Harrison (18-1) has just one loss in his entire career, and she grades out as the more impactful striker and more aggressive takedown artist. I think she can stand up and win this if she has to, but she has such an edge on the canvas that I don’t see this fight going any other way.

I respect Pena’s game and she’s live for the upset, but Harrison is the likely winner here.

Bet: Kayla Harrison (-700)

Joe Pyfer (-400) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (+300)

Part of me wants to side with Kelvin Gastelum here. I am already sticking my neck out for an O’Malley upset, though, so I don’t see much reason to risk my skin for a guy who is just 2-3 over his last five fights and hasn’t KO’d anyone since 2017.

That doesn’t tell the whole story for Gastelum, to be sure. He’s getting up there at age 33, but he’s faced some brutal opponents and lived to tell about it. He actually beat Daniel Rodriguez in his last match, while losses to Sean Brady, Jared Cannonier, and Robert Whittaker are nothing to be ashamed of.

True, but Gastelum is a middling 19-9 at this point and isn’t displaying any finishing ability. He can take on a lot of damage, but at some point the dam is going to break. That is especially the case when going up against heavy hitters like Pyfer (13-3), who bring massive finishing ability (9 KOs) to the table.

Pyfer matches Gastelum in the striking department, but quite arguably is the more lethal fighter standing up. That’s certainly been the case when looking at his recent fights, as six of his last seven have ended early in his favor.

Gastelum is tough and can stand and trade blows, but Pyfer is five years younger, has a four-inch reach edge, and is far more explosive. That first ever KO loss is coming for Gastelum and I think it arrives on June 7th.

Bet: Joe Pyfer (-400)

Patchy Mix (-170) vs. Mario Bautista (+140)

I went with the favorites after O’Malley, but I’m ready to get hurt again. MMA betting is like this, though; nothing is a lock and you really just need to pick your spots. 

At UFC 316 I am really digging the value associated with Mario Bautista (15-2), who is on a killer 7-fight winning streak and has quietly built a super strong resume. The 31-year old has a versatile skill-set, nice finishing ability, and has toppled solid names like Jose Aldo and Ricky Simon in recent matches.

Despite that, Bautista is a mild underdog when he touches gloves with Patchy Mix (20-1), who is a canvas warrior (13 submissions) and hasn’t lost since 2020. In fact, he’s coming off an impressive Decision win over Magomed Magomedov. He will have a mild 2.5-inch reach in this one, but he’ll also be making his UFC debut.

This is a jump up in competition for Mix, so I won’t be shocked at all to see Bautista control this one and possibly even add to his early finishes. 

Bet: Mario Bautista (+140)

Kevin Holland (-220) vs. Vicente Luque (+180)

The last fight on the UFC 316 main card has Kevin Holland (27-13) as the favorite to take care of Vicente Luque (23-10-1). Both of these once proud fighters have elite finishing ability, but have stacked up the losses in recent years.

Holland in particular isn’t easy to trust, as he is just 2-4 over his last six fights. His only win in his last three bouts came against Gunnar Nelson this year and it went the distance. There’s no denying that he’s had a tough journey against some huge names, but Holland’s days of knocking people out left and right seem to be in the rearview mirror.

Perhaps you could say the same for Luque, but he’s at least put his finishing ability to work recently, as he submitted Themba Gorimbo in his most recent fight. There are concerns for Luque, of course, as Holland has a massive reach advantage and is on par with him statistically.

That said, this is all about value. Neither of these guys are what they once were, but they both have elite finishing ability, they’re both highly versatile, and they both have a lot to lose. I am going with the value here and backing Luque in what should be a bloodbath.

Bet: Vicente Luque (+180)

UFC 316 Preliminary Card Odds

Check out the latest UFC 316 odds for the Preliminary Card.

The Prelims aren’t nearly as thrilling as the main card at UFC 316, and yet the pricing isn’t that much different. We once again get several lopsided affairs per the betting odds, but with that also comes a chance at some serious value.

I like a couple of these bouts to go the other way, which means hunting some upsets could make a lot of sense. The trick is picking your posts and letting the value come to you.

Roll with my Prelims picks above, or read on for a little more insight into each UFC 316 matchup.

UFC 316 Predictions For The Preliminary Card

Catch the Early Prelims at 6:00 pm EST and the Prelims at 8:00 pm EST.

Joshua Van (-575) vs. Bruno Silva (+390)

Van (13-2) is a huge favorite going into UFC 316, as the 23-year old hopes to keep building his resume up en route to a possible title shot. He’s red hot at the moment, as he’s won each of his last three fights, offering a nice response to a KO defeat to Charles Johnson.

That was Van’s first career knockout loss, and just the second defeat of his career. He brings some solid finishing ability (6 KOs) to the table, and is 13 years younger than the guy he’s facing on June 7th. Van has averaged an insane 8.10 significant strikes landed per minute, and grades out as the more accurate striker between the two.

Bruno Silva (14-6-2) is no chump, but he’s far older and got abused in a TKO loss to Manel Kape his last time out. He’d been getting it done prior to that (four straight wins), but at age 35 I wouldn’t be shocked if he started trending in the other direction.

Silva has the experience and versatility to be a problem for bettors, but the odds heavily favor Van and I don’t see much reason to go away from him.

Bet: Joshua Van (-575)

Azamat Murzakanov (-320) vs. Brendson Ribeiro (+250)

Next up is Azamat Murzakanov (14-0) against Brendson Ribeiro (17-7). The smart money is in theory on Azamat Murzakanov, as he’s yet to lose and is a huge betting favorite. However, he is eight years older than his opponent and loses almost 10 inches in reach.

I definitely want to respect Azamat’s run to this point. He outlasted Dustin Jacoby two fights ago, and he followed that solid Decision win up by knocking out Alonzo Menifield. He’s also 4-0 in the UFC so far, with his size and reach limitations really not hurting him so far.

However, a 10-inch reach deficit is insane and Azamat is 36 years old. Ribeiro has some rough losses in his career, but he also possesses solid finishing ability and is in decent form with wins in his last two fights.

This one is a gamble, but I like Ribeiro at +250.

Bet: Brendson Ribeiro (+250)

Serghei Spivac (-140) vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (+120)

Spivac (17-5) is one of the smallest favorites going into UFC 316, which isn’t too shocking since he’s facing a quality fighter in Waldo Cortes-Acosta (13-1). These two are evenly matched when looking at the numbers, with Spivac being the more accurate striker, and Waldo inflicting much more damage.

Spivac is much more aggressive with his takedowns (4.56), and has also proven to be more successful when trying to get the fight to the ground. He has eaten five losses in his career, but they’ve come against really tough bruisers like Tom Aspinall, Cyril Gane, and most recently – Jailton Almeida.

None of those losses are bad at all, while Spivac has proven finishing ability and versatility to lean to. He definitely is at risk of getting put to sleep, but WCA isn’t the most imposing knockout artist he’s run into.

Due to his experience and skill-set, I lean toward a Spivac win. Cortes-Acosta has proven to be quite durable to this point (never been finished), so I’d also lean toward a Decision win.

Bet: Serghei Spivac (-140)

Wang Cong (-370) vs. Ariane da Silva (+280)

Another betting favorite I am high on is Wang Cong (7-1), as the 33-year old inflicts major damage (6.38 significant strikes per minute) and is also more accurate than her opponent.

Ariane da Silva (17-10) has way more experience, but she’s the inferior fighter in terms of damage inflicted and takedown offense. She’s also much more vulnerable to getting finished early, as she’s dropped two straight fights and has been finished five times in her career (4 KOs).

That’s bad news when facing someone like Cong, who is 3-1 in the UFC so far with two finishes. She did get surprised by Gabriella Fernandes (TKO) in her lone career loss, but I think she learned from her mistakes there and should be able to build a winning streak after bouncing back with a win over Bruna Brasil.

Bet: Wang Cong (-370)

Joo Sang Yoo (-475) vs. Jeka Saragih (+340)

Another big betting favorite at UFC 316 is Joo Sang Yoo (8-0) who is set to make his UFC debut. He is perfect so far in his young MMA career, and comes in with four wins via stoppage.

Sang Yoo is a huge favorite when he faces Jeka Saragih (14-4), who has nice finishing ability (9 KOs), but has struggled of late in the UFC. Saragih is just 3-2 inside the Octagon, with both of his losses coming via stoppage, and the last tone coming against Westin Wilson.

You could certainly argue for Saragih’s experience and finishing ability, but the fact that he is struggling with lower level UFC competition is concerning. Naturally, I will side with the undefeated fighter with a higher ceiling.

Bet: Joo Sang Yoo (-475)

Quillan Salkilld (-400) vs. Yanal Ashmouz (+300)

I will keep siding with the favorites in this one, too, as Quillan Salkilld (8-1) is five years younger than his opponent but nearly doubles him in significant strikes landed per minute and is far more aggressive with his takedowns.

Salkilld hasn’t lost since his pro MMA debut back in 2021. He is on an eight-fight winning streak and has won six of his fights via stoppage. Versatile and menacing, Salkilld looks to be the aggressor when taking on Yanal Ashmouz (8-1), who simply doesn’t compare when looking at the data.

In addition, Salkilld will own a staggering six-inch reach advantage. 

Bet: Quillan Salkilld (-400)

Khaos Williams (-165) vs. Andreas Gustafsson (+170)

Khaos Williams (15-4) was initially scheduled to face Uros Medic, but that has changed due to health issues. He’ll now run into Andreas Gustafsson (11-2) who was supposed to make his UFC debut last week, but got pushed back until now.

This turns into a much bigger fight than either of these guys were going to get. It’s also a brawl waiting to happen, as both of these fighters are natural strikers. Williams has a solid eight career knockouts to his name, with his most recent KO coming against Carlston Harris last May.

Things haven’t gone perfectly for Williams as of late, of course, as he got submitted by Gabriel Bonfim this past February and he’s just 2-2 over his last four bouts.

Gustafsson is older at 34 and doesn’t have any UFC experience like his opponent. However, he’s just as violent (8 KOs) and impressed at Dana White’s Contender Series by dropping Pat Pytlik (TKO).

Williams is the more well-known commodity and he’s never been KO’d, but this is a classic “something has to give” situation. I’ll take the fighter offering better value.

Bet: Andreas Gustafsson (+170)

Mark Choinski (+205) vs. MarQuel Mederos (-240)

MarQuel Mederos is another fighter who saw his original fight squashed, but he will prepare to make up for it by taking on challenger Mark Choinski.

Mederos enters as the clear betting favorite, as he’s gone 10-1 through 11 bouts and has been pretty dominant. Six of his 10 wins have come via KO, and he’s yet to be finished, himself. He stood tall in the face of a solid veteran like Austin Hubbard last fight, which moved him to 2-0 under the UFC banner.

Mark Choinski (8-0) is pretty interesting, as his style is a contrast to Mederos and he’s a problem on the mat (five submissions). He’s not nearly the threat Mederos is with his fists, but he also has never lost despite working his way past similar foes.

The talent jump is important to note, but Choinski has finished seven of eight opponents. If this one goes to the ground, it’s hard not to like his chances. I’ll take the value in a matchup that is otherwise a bit of an unknown.

Bet: Mark Choinski (+205)

The Best UFC 316 Picks

The following list represents our best UFC picks for this weekend’s event:

• Sean O’Malley (+250)
• Joe Pyfer (-400)

Most of the top favorites are a bit pricey, while all the underdogs worth betting on are still rather risky. I am going to cap this guide off with two really fun bets – one that offers solid upside, and one that should be among the safest UFC 316 picks you can target.

O’Malley is not the safe bet. He lost the first fight to Merab, who completely out-paced him and controlled the fight from start to finish. That said, it only takes one punch to change the narrative and Merab is going to allow O’Malley to get a few looks. At this price – and given O’Malley’s finishing ability – I am willing to swing for the fences.

Pyfer is similar in that he can get that KO, so for both of these guys, I love the idea of hunting down some method of victory prop bets. Pyfer is far safer, of course, as he’s facing an aging and easily gassed Kelvin Gastelum.

I assume Pyfer’s best route to a win is via KO, but he is going to inflict so much damage that it wouldn’t matter, either way.

If you need more safe bets, I obviously love Kayla Harrison to win the women’s Bantamweight title, and I also think Joshua Van is a lock. If you want some actual value, though, I’d target Harrison to win inside the distance and Van to get a knockout.

UFC 316 Card

Check out the updated UFC 316 fight card: