Donovan Mitchell Points NBA Prop Pick for June 16th

Two series underdogs have been holding pretty tight as the NBA playoffs continue.

The Atlanta Hawks were able to take advantage of some breaks, including an injury to Joel Embiid, to even up their series with the Philadelphia 76ers at two games apiece.

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And the Los Angeles Clippers, after losing two close games to the Utah Jazz, have bounced back to win the last two by double-digit margins to forge a 2-2 tie.

These two series resume again on Wednesday.

Having reflected on these games, we have a couple of prop bets we are moving with that offer sports bettors the opportunity for a profit.

The Hawks Offer Value in Series Betting Market

Hawks vs. 76ers Picks

HAWKS TO WIN SERIES 4-3 (+500)

Okay, we gave the Sixers a huge chance to create some distance in Game 4, mainly because they had the guy Atlanta could not guard (Joel Embiid). And we were counting on a comeback at the free throw line for Ben Simmons.

But the latter did not happen. Simmons went just one for five from the line, giving him a 33.3% accuracy rate for these playoffs. So we are happy to give up on him. But the Hawks, in giving him just those five foul shots, didn’t really have to employ the strategy of hacking Simmons up. So they still have that in their pocket.

And that might work even better if Joel Embiid continues to have problems with his knee. He already has a partially torn meniscus, and he has done unbelievably well in playing through it. But it may have caught up with him in the second half of Monday’s game, as he missed all 12 of his field goal attempts. We don’t want to get overly dramatic about that, but it was the first time in 25 years that a player went that dry in that many attempts in one half.

To Embiid’s credit, he did make all eight of his free throw attempts, and that brings his percentage to 83.6% for the series, which is unusual for a big man. But not for him, as he shot 85.9% for the regular season.

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But maybe they foul him a little less if he is less of an offensive threat.

We don’t know at this juncture whether Embiid will have to take a seat. When they had him in the lineup, they were 39-12. When they didn’t, they were 10-11, a percentage that would have relegated them to the play-in tournament.

Some of the Sixers’ numbers are similar without Embiid, but one thing sticks out like a sore thumb – they are 13 points per 100 possessions worse without him. So there is a glaring difference as far as defense is concerned.

Now that we’ve seen the knee flare up again, we might expect that he’d see the floor less. And that might make a difference in one of these remaining games that is to be played in Philadelphia. Under the circumstances, this may not be a bad price.

Best Player Prop Pick for Clippers-Jazz Game 5

Clippers vs. Jazz Picks

DONOVAN MITCHELL OVER 30.5 POINTS (-120)

NBA Predictions

This just in – Donovan Mitchell can play a little. Clippers coach Ty Lue finally gave Patrick Beverley some extended playing time (20 minutes’ worth). And Mitchell was held to nine for 26 in Game 4. But he did score 37 points, on the strength of being able to hit from long range and at the free throw line.

Mitchell attacks the hoop, and he’s got a couple of moves that are close to being unstoppable, so sometimes the opponents’ bets hope is to foul him.

Thus far Mitchell is averaging 37.3 points, with 80% from the line and 45% from the arc. He has taken one-third of his team’s shots – more than twice as many as any other Jazz starter. I can’t imagine he’ll stop doing that.

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Charles Jay
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