Most MLB bettors stick to the basics. They bet the moneyline and game totals. Every once in a while, it may make sense to wager on a team on the moneyline, but for the most part baseball is a moneyline sport.
Recently, more baseball bettors have been trying their hand at various prop bets. One of the more popular is whether or not a run will be scored in the first inning of a game. Along with this bet, another popular MLB prop is a wager on which team will score first in a game.
To have success with this bet, bettors need to understand how it works and then employ a strategy that provides more wins than losses.
Betting on Which Team Will Score First in MLB
Just like any bet you ever make, you should understand how it works first before you just throw many at it and hope for the best. The team to score first wager would look something like this.
Los Angeles Dodgers Score First -210
Los Angeles Angels Score First +170
In the above example, we can see that the Dodgers are favored to score first and the Angels at +170 are the underdog. After doing your research, if you like the Dodgers to score first, you would wager $210 to win $100 if the Dodgers did score first.
Unlike the juice on MLB moneyline and game totals bets, the juice on this prop bet is going to much higher. It’s common to see -150, -200, and higher as we see in the example above.
Tips for Betting on MLB First Team to Score Props
It’s important to understand that a run is scored in the first inning of a MLB game over 50 percent of the time. It’s actually closer to 53 percent of games see a run scored in the first inning. Knowing that, we can take a look at a few stats that can help us handicap the first team to score bet.
Using the same example from above, we can look at average runs scored in the first inning. Let’s say the Dodgers are at 0.62 and the Angels are at 0.58. That doesn’t really tell us a whole lot other than both times might or might not score a run in the first inning.
Next, you could look at how many runs each team gives up in the first inning. A better measure might be first inning score percentage and opponent first inning score percentage. Let’s say the Dodgers only score in the first inning 26 percent of the time. The Angels, on the other hand, score a run in the first inning in over 30 percent of their games.
On the other end, let’s say we find that Dodgers pitchers give up a first inning run 27 percent of the time while Angels pitchers give up a run in the first only 23 percent of the time. With that research, we can come to a conclusion and find value on betting the Angels at +170 to score first against the Dodgers.
You might also look at pitching matchups and how well pitchers perform in the first inning of games. Some pitchers start fast and are ahead of hitters until later in the game. Other pitchers may have higher ERAs in the first inning than their total ERA.
If you understand the bet and do the homework, you can find value in this bet and have success with it.
