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We’ve written before about the fact that the various divisions mean very little in the NBA. If you come in first place, you don’t get any special privileges; you’re not even guaranteed a spot in the playoffs.
But you can place a wager on who will come first, which might then give it all the meaning in the world, depending on the way you look at it.
You’ll see below that the Dallas Mavericks are the favorites to come away with first place in the Southwest Division. But do they deserve to be that much of a favorite?
We’ll explore that, as we come up with a futures play that may have some value.
Here we go:
2021 NBA Southwest Division Futures Odds
DALLAS MAVERICKS (-800)
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (+650)
SAN ANTONIO SPURS (+3600)
NEW ORLEANS PELICANS (+6500)
When you look at this division, keep in mind that the Memphis Grizzlies are just two games behind the Mavericks, and the San Antonio Spurs are only one game behind Memphis. With things tight like that, you wouldn’t figure on these kinds of numbers.
Is there trouble in “paradise” with the Mavs? Dallas has arguably the best player in the division with Luka Doncic, and he can be enough to carry the team on any given night.
But the word is that he doesn’t get along so well with Kristaps Porzingis, who had been visualized as the ideal running mate for him by owner Mark Cuban.
We know about the guy’s obvious talent; you’re not going to find a lot of 7’3″ power forwards to begin with. And then precious few of them can step out and make a long-range jumper. He’s at least a respectable three-point marksman, hitting 36%. Doncic is not averaging that far from a triple double, and he is one of the league’s top scorers (28.6 ppg), but KP is over 20 points and nine rebounds per contest.
Jalen Brunson, a very diligent, mature player out of Villanova, gets a lot of minutes, but there’s not a lot of room for a point guard because the offense basically runs through Doncic.
To his credit, Cuban doesn’t fall all over himself trying to deny there is friction between his two stars. He compared it a little to what happened between Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry after Terry had originally been acquired from Atlanta.
Steve Nash had already been allowed to leave as a free agent, which did not make Nowitzki happy. And so he was not as welcoming to Terry as he might have otherwise been. Cuban says that eventually the two became good friends. Of course, it didn’t hurt that Terry became the Sixth Man of the Year and helped the team to an NBA title.
If the Mavs are going to make any kind of move, it would have to be with offense, because they are 21st in the NBA in Defensive Rating. And they do not create additional possessions by forcing turnovers.
NBA handicappers may recall that last season they were historically efficient on the attack end, ranked #1 in Offensive Rating. This year, however, they are only tenth. They are third best in the NBA when it comes to two-point shooting, although from the standpoint of their offensive strategy, they are second in the league in three-point attempts and “makes.”
The Grizzlies (+650) are different from the Mavs in that they don’t rely on triples to supply offense. They do get off more shots than anyone else in the NBA. That is a by-product of a brisk pace (8th in the league), their ability to get second shots (1st in offensive rebounds) and the fact that they don’t throw the ball away a lot. What Memphis has is a genuine playmaker from the point guard position. Ja Morant is the team leader in points (19.1) and assists (7.3) per game.
Memphis coach Taylor Jenkins is a protege of San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich, which probably explains the non-reliance on three-point shooting. When we went into the bubble last year, the expectation was that Pops was going to use that to look at his young players as part of the “rebuilding” process. But the Spurs did better than anticipated, and while they are indeed developing young players like Lonnie Walker, Dejounte Murray, Keldon Johnson and Derrick White, they are remaining relevant.
Popovich had claimed that his team would stretch things out by shooting more triples, San Antonio is currently 29th in the NBA in three-point attempts, although they’re second in two-point shots taken. They are actually not a real good shooting team at all (20th in the league in field goal percentage),but they do a good job taking care of the ball, and they are a little better than average defensively (10th in Defensive Rating).
You have to give Popovich a lot of credit for simply keeping this team competitive, especially as they transitioned away from LaMarcus Aldridge (who went to the Nets and had to retire due to a heart condition).
At +3600, the Spurs may not get there in the end, but they may be in close enough proximity in the division to merit your interest. In fact, both Memphis and San Antonio offer better value than Dallas in this situation, even with just 15 games left to go.
Can the Grizzlies move up the standings tonight with a win against the Trail Blazers? Find out by accessing our Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers betting preview.
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