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So the Brooklyn Nets may have gotten sidetracked a little. James Harden’s hamstring is going to keep him out of action longer than anticipated. Kevin Durant is in and out of the lineup, and the team is obviously going to be more careful than usual with him. LaMarcus Aldridge has had to retire because of a heart condition. Blake Griffin’s fitness to play on any given day is probably a roll of the dice at best.
If the Nets, listed as -115 to reach the NBA Finals, aren’t the team that comes roaring out of the Eastern Conference, is there a club that could possibly fill the vacuum?
Maybe a longshot we can get some value on?
Bet on the Miami Heat to Win the East
The Miami Heat (+1300 to win the East) are in a position that, over any three or four-day period, could radically change. They’re only a couple of games out of being in the upper half of the East playoff queue, but at the same time they are sitting in a place right now where they may actually have to emerge from a play-in tournament to get into the regular post-season field.
You remember that last season the Heat finished fifth in the Eastern conference standings, but rallied at the right time to win three playoff series – against Indiana, Milwaukee and Boston – to reach the Finals, where injuries and the Lakers put an end to the magical run.
Admittedly this season has not seemed so magical. But this is a team that still has some of the elements in place. And they may have even more.
There is doubt as to whether this team can lean on long-distance shooting the way it did last season. The Heat were just under 38% from beyond the arc last year, and they are down to 34.9% as we speak. Duncan Robinson is not quite as sharp he was last year, although he is still better than 40% from downtown.
There is a “Big Two” for sure; Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are not a part of any three-point barrage, but they are averaging 40 points between them, and they are obviously the kind of defenders who can make an All-Defensive team.
The Heat would love to think they can complete the Big Three with Victor Oladipo, but he’s played just four games with them. If he is healthy, he is a force at both ends of the floor. So the objective is to put him in a position where his knee can deal with the playoff grind.
Perhaps that’s a tall order.
And then there is the issue of Tyler Herro, who truly asserted himself as a rookie. His three-point shooting is down to 33%, and there is genuine concern on the part of coach Erik Spoelstra and team president Pat Riley that Herro has let “fame,” for lack of a better word, affect him too much. Herro found much celebrity after last year’s run to the Finals, and in a city like Miami, that can have a deleterious impact.
But there is still a lot to be said about Miami’s potential to surprise.
For one thing, they are still among the upper echelon of teams defensively. We’ve mentioned Butler and Adebayo, as well as Oladipo. And clearly as it looks like Trevor Ariza will be getting extended playing time it will be with defense in mind.
There are admittedly some decisions to be made about the role players. Spoelstra has generally followed what Riley did for years regarding playoff rotations, and Riley historically went with seven people.
That would leave some odd men out. Andre Iguodala is a guy the Heat acquired to give them a boost off the bench (and some defense, we might add) in short spurts. But he’d be a decision for Spoelstra. And Kendrick Nunn, who saw himself left out in the bubble last year, deserves to be part of the playoff mix. His scoring ability would seem to demand it.
Goran Dragic may play a key part again. Dragic, if you remember, was the team’s sixth man last season, but when Nunn lost ground upon coming into the bubble, he stepped into the starting lineup and was nothing short of outstanding.
His playing time has been cut back a little this season, but would anyone be surprised if he wound up being someone they relied upon an awful lot? Remember that he can play both guard positions, and he would naturally slot in there in case Oladipo could not shoulder as much of the burden as Spoelstra hopes.
This team has under-achieved; there’s no question about it. And there have been the injuries, as well as that regrettable Meyers Leonard incident. But this is one squad that know what it takes to get there. They have the guys who can take the game into their own hands late. And they have the accepted qualities for “playoff basketball.” That is, they can play a deliberate game, they know how to get to the line (top ratio of FT’s to FG attempts) and they can defend.
No one can argue with the fact that the Philadelphia 76ers, at +325 and a good possibility to be the #1 seed, look like they can supply some value in the East, perhaps a lot more than Milwaukee at +300. But as the home court might mean a little less, +1300 may be inviting for the defending conference champions.
