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The way NBA bettors knew it – at least until last season – is that the top eight teams in each conference would advance to the playoffs, and then they would play a first-round series according to the seeding. That is, the #1 seed would play the #8 seed, the #2 would play #7, and so on.
That same procedure will happen this season, with a notable twist – there is something that will come first.
It is no longer automatic that those seventh and eighth seeds will get into a playoff series. Instead, they will have to earn their place.
The #7 and #8 will play just one game. That winner is in as #7, while the loser will have to play against the winner of a single game between the #9 and #10 seeds. That will determine the eighth and final seed.
So there’s an element of sudden death involved, and not all the players are happy about it.
One of the more outspoken has been Luka Doncic, the star of the Dallas Mavericks, who are priced at +1750 to win the Western Conference title.
“You play 72 games to get into the playoffs, then maybe you lose two in a row and you’re out of the playoffs,” said Doncic, who is listed at +4500 to win the MVP award. “So I don’t see the point of that.”
As far as I’m concerned, though, that IS the point. There are enough people who believe too many teams make the playoffs already. Now, even though technically there are MORE teams that are part of the picture, it gives those teams a lot of anxiety by creating a sense of urgency.
Seriously, a team could be sitting in the #4 spot in the East, like the New York Knicks, and find themselves two games away from the #7 position, which in turn would put them two games away from elimination. As we know, anything can happen in a game or two.
What this does is make it more hazardous for a team to rest its top players in the schedule in the process of sliding into the playoffs.
A case in point is the Los Angeles Lakers. We have talked in the past about the lack of value in their price to get through the conference side of the post-season bracket (+185), simply because there’s a chance they will have to win their way into the fray.
Anthony Davis has been experiencing back flare-ups, while LeBron James is likely to sit out with a hangnail these days. There are other injuries too, and their chances of handling the rigor of the playoffs aren’t tremendous. That is the kind of situation that makes a coach want to do some “load management.” Except in this case, that could mark them as a “play-in” team.
Another great thing about the NBA play-in “tournament” is its resemblance to the NCAA Tournament in the respect that it can be “one loss and out.” Teams have to go all-in on one game, and that’s fun.
With just a handful of games left, here are the teams that haven’t been guaranteed anything to date, making them real candidates for the play-in phase. For some of them, that’s all they can hope for.
That comes along with their prices to win their respective conference championships:
Odds to Win NBA Western Conference 2021
Dallas Mavericks +1750
Los Angeles Lakers +185
Portland Trail Blazers +2800
Golden State Warriors +5500
Memphis Grizzlies +10000
San Antonio Spurs +12500
New Orleans Pelicans +15000
Odds to Win NBA Eastern Conference 2021
New York Knicks +3500
Atlanta Hawks +3500
Boston Celtics +1550
Miami Heat +1350
Charlotte Hornets +10000
Indiana Pacers +7000
Washington Wizards +7000
Chicago Bulls +30000
Toronto Raptors +25000
The Sacramento Kings aren’t even listed with a price, even though they are not mathematically precluded from being the #10 seed in the West.
On the basis of where they stand vis-a-vis the play-in, we’d say the teams that are priced out of line are the Lakers (that almost goes without saying), and maybe the Celtics and Heat.
