Live betting is the latest trend in sports betting. NBA games are especially suited for live betting since there are so many lead changes during a single game.
Betting in-game on the NBA can be just as fun and just as lucrative as placing traditional pre-game bets on the point spread, moneyline, or total.
Today, we focus on one particular live bet – betting on the next field goal. In order to have some success with this wager, it helps to understand it first. Then, we can focus on how to increase our winning percentage.
What Is the Next Field Goal Bet in the NBA?
In a live betting situation, betting on the next field goal is a wager on whether the next basket will be a two-pointer or a three-pointer. You are not betting on which player scores the basket. You are simply betting on the type of field goal that will be scored. Also, notice this bet is for field goals, not free throws. Here’s an example.
Let’s say you are watching the Nets and Hawks and you are logged into your sportsbook account and ready to place a bet on the next field goal. It may look like this:
Two-Point FG -135
Three-Point FG +150
In this case, you would win $0.74 for every dollar wagered on the two-point field goal. If you bet on the three-pointer and won, you would collect $1.50 for every dollar wagered.
In betting the next field goal, it’s important to remember that the two-pointer will always be juiced. You’ll pay a higher premium to win less on betting twos all night long.
The real value in betting the next field goal then is in picking the right times to pick the three-pointer.
Tips & Strategy
Since the three-pointer will be offered at plus-money, you want to focus on teams that shoot threes well. In the 2020-21 NBA season, the Los Angeles Clippers were the only team that shot over 40 percent from behind the arc. You can start there.
The Clippers averaged just over 14 made three-pointers per game. The trick is in determining when to bet on the three.
That’s where it helps to know which players are on the floor. Marcus Morris Sr. was the Clippers best three-point shooter hitting 46.6 percent from three. Next was Luke Kennard (44.4%) and then Reggie Jackson (42.7).
Surprisingly though, Morris didn’t have the highest number of three-pointers made per game. That honor was held by Paul George who hit 3.08 compared to Morris’s 2.42. An ideal live betting next field goal situation would be when George, Morris, and one – or both – of Kennard and Jackson were on the floor.
It also helps to watch momentum and game situations. The end of a quarter is a time when most teams will run some sort of set play. Oftentimes, the set play is to get an open look for one of a team’s best shooters.
If you’re watching that same Nets-Hawks game, let’s say the Nets have the ball with 15 seconds remaining in a quarter. Both Kevin Durant (45.6%) and Joe Harris (47.8%) are on the floor.
With the three-pointer at plus-money, that’s a value you wouldn’t want to pass up. Brooklyn could run a set play to get Durant or Harris the ball (or James Harden or Kyrie Irving who were 22nd and 27th in three- pointers made during the 2020-21 season).
The bottom line in making this live bet is to have a plan, know which players are on/off the floor, and be patient. Doing so can make the next field goal bet fun and prosperous.
No time to handicap on your own? You can still make money by buying sports picks.
