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Looking for a college basketball winner for tonight’s slate? We recommend grabbing the points with USC.
USC Trojans at Arizona Wildcats Picks
Tip-off: 9 PM ET (ESPN2)
College Basketball Odds: Arizona -4, Total 141
Well, Pac-12 basketball isn’t what it used to be, but Arizona might just be the best thing in it. That having been said, they are not going to be the champions of the conference this season.
The school, no doubt seeing some bad things on the horizon, has enacted one of those “self-imposed bans” on post-season activity, connected to recruiting violations. Clearly they are more guilty than that self-discipline would seem to indicate.
Since they did it, they’ve won two games. But long-term,,what is in the cards for Sean Miller’s team? It was anticipated that this was going to be something of a transitional season; will there be some opt-outs when all is said and done?
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The USC Trojans haven’t faced the toughest schedule thus far, but there was a nice 79-53 win over BYU, which is pretty impressive any way you slice it. They’ve lost a 61-58 decision to UConn and dropped one to a formidable Colorado team when they shot only 39% from inside the two-point arc.
These are two teams that are very good at getting second-shot opportunities – the Arizona Wildcats are 11th in the nation in Offensive Rebounding Percentage, while USC is 20th. Part of the Wildcats’ game plan is to get to the free throw line; in fact, their ratio of free throw attempts to field goal attempts is 45%-55%, which is pretty strong. If this turns into a free throw shooting contest, USC could come up short, as the Trojans shoot just 60.5% from the charity stripe.
USC doesn’t commit a lot of fouls, though, and Arizona is in the lower half of Division I as far as free throw accuracy itself (69.5%). So perhaps that advantage is mitigated to an extent.
We can tell you that neither Arizona nor USC are “triple-centric,” which means they don’t shoot a heck of a lot of threes. That turns this into a game that is going to be won or lost on the inside.
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And who is better equipped in that regard?
Well, both squads are big – in fact, they are among the dozen “tallest” teams in the nation, on average. The ‘Cats have at least three members of the rotation who are at least 6-10. But we’re a little partial to USC’s seven-foot freshman, Evan Mobley, who is the best shot-blocker in this game (2.9 per game, in fact).
Mobley, a McDonald’s All-American, was a highly sought-after prep recruit, so that was a big “get” for coach Andy Enfield, who has not yet made a national impact at Southern Cal after his breakout experience at Florida Gulf Coast. The prize frosh is expected to be a “one and done” guy, and if you look at all the mock drafts, the assumption is that he’ll be selected among the top three or four.
He is hitting 62% of his shots inside the arc, and there would appear to be no reason he couldn’t become more of an offensive force. And by the way, his older brother Isaiah Mobley, playing alongside him, isn’t too bad either, having been a McDonald’s All-American as well.
There’s no definitive way to determine how Arizona is going to ultimately deal with this post-season “ban.” Maybe it will wind up being a disruption; maybe it creates focus by placing more attention on each conference game. Either way, fundamentals suggest that USC can keep this close and perhaps win it.
The Play: USC – Bet on USC tonight at HRWager.
