The 2021 NCAA tournament begins play on Thursday with the First Four and then rolls right into first round action on Friday and Saturday. After Selection Sunday, there hasn’t been much of a change in the odds to win this year’s March Madness.
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The nation’s No. 1 team, Gonzaga, remains the clear favorite to win the school’s first-ever NCAA tournament. But, keep in mind that in the 16 years that the NCAA has announced an overall No. 1 seed that team has only won three national titles.
Still the Favorites
As mentioned, Gonzaga and its 26-0 record are the top seed in March Madness. The Bulldogs are a +155 favorite to finally win it all in 2021. Gonzaga made it to the final in 2017, but lost to North Carolina.
With Corey Kispert (19.2 ppg) and Drew Timme (18.7 ppg) leading the way, the Bulldogs are the country’s top-scoring team. Head coach Mark Few’s team has what appears to be a smooth ride through to the West Regional final where they would face No. 2 Iowa (+1550) and Player of the Year candidate Luka Garza.
Baylor (22-2) was the nation’s No. 2 team for most of the season but dropped to No. 3 on Selection Sunday. Still, the Bears are listed at +550 to win the tournament.
Illinois, which won the Big Ten tournament title, overtook Baylor for the No. 2 spot. Led by Ayo Dosunmu and 7-footer Kofi Cockburn, the Illini are a +500 favorite to capture the national championship. Illinois entered the season listed as high as +5500.
The only other school with odds under +1000 is No. 4 Michigan. The Wolverines (20-4) lost three games in the last week and a half of the season, but they have been outstanding on both ends of the floor. Michigan did win three straight over top ten opponents down the stretch.
Past History
In any given year, it is rare for a team outside of the top six seeds to make it to a Final Four. Since the NCAA expanded the tournament field to 64 teams in 1985, there have only been 14 times where a No. 7 seed or lower has advanced to a Final Four.
More often than not, a Final Four is comprised of No. 1, 2, or 3 seeds. Taking it further, the overall tournament champion is far more often a No. 1 seed – 22 of the 35 since 1985 – than any other. Of the past 13 March Madness champions, ten have been No. 1 seeds.
With that in mind, it is also helpful to know that there has only been one Final Four since 1985 where all four top seeds made it to the Final Four. That was 2008 (Kansas, Memphis, North Carolina, and UCLA).
True Contenders
One of the best matchups of this year’s tournament could come in the South Regional semifinals. No. 2 Ohio State could potentially take on No. 3 Arkansas. The Buckeyes are deep and experienced. The Razorbacks are one of the most up-tempo teams in the country. Head coach Eric Musselman’s team ranks 17th in adjusted tempo. Here are three longshots that will make noise at March Madness 2021.
Ohio State is given +1750 odds to win a national championship. Arkansas, which surprised everyone and wound up second in the SEC, is listed at +4500. Both schools have won national titles in the past. The Buckeyes won it all in 1960 and the Razorbacks in 1994.
With Michigan stumbling in its last few games, the bottom half of the East Region bracket has some teams worthy of backing. Alabama won a national championship in football – expected – and captured the SEC in basketball – unexpected.
The Crimson Tide are the No. 2 seed and would meet another interesting prospect in No. 3 Texas in a regional semifinal. Alabama is athletic enough to beat both Texas and Michigan. Head coach Nate Oats team is listed at +1750 to win it all.
Texas has had the kind of year the Longhorns have been waiting for. Head coach Shaka Smart has Texas playing great defense. His team swept Kansas in the regular season for the first time in over a decade. The Longhorns are listed at +2000.
