As far as interleague matchups go, this is about as good as it can get. On Sunday night, in the ESPN game (7:10 PM ET), we’ve got two division leaders going at it, in what could be a preview of the World Series.
The Milwaukee Brewers (58-41), who lead the National League Central division by 6.5 games, take on the Chicago White Sox (58-40), who lead the American League Central by nine games. So it’s pretty likely both of them are going to the playoffs, as division champions.
Tony LaRussa’s hiring by the White Sox was controversial when it was announced, and it continued that way, particularly when rookie Yermin Mercedes felt his wrath after blasting a homer on a 3-0 count in a game where the ChiSox were already leading by a lopsided score. It broke an “unwritten rule” of baseball, especially as it came off a position player for Minnesota in a 15-4 game. Not only that, LaRussa threw the guy under the bus in public.
Since then, Mercedes has batted .162 with one homer, got sent to the minor leagues, “retired” from baseball, and ultimately went back and reported.
Okay, enough of that. On with the show. We have two All-Stars facing each other, with Lance Lynn (9-3, 1.94 ERA) going for the White Sox against Brandon Woodruff (7-4, 2.04 ERA) for the Brewers. Our best prop bets focus on those two pitchers.
White Sox vs. Brewers Props Picks for July 25th
White Sox vs. Brewers Predictions
WHITE SOX TO SCORE FIRST RUN (-135)
In the first inning, Lynn is not so bad, with a slashline of .180/.219/.262. He’s given up three first inning runs in 17 starts (ERA of 1.59). And with a 21-to-3 (7-to-1) ratio of stirkeouts to walks, he looks like he is pretty well-equipped here.
Woodruff is not horrible in the first inning, but he hasn’t gotten out of the gate as fast as Lynn has. His slashline there is .191/.267/.397. And he has walked seven batters in 19 starts in the first inning. It should be noted that Woodruff has allowed nine earned runs in 19 starts in the opening stanza, good for a 4.26 ERA. Included in this are four homers. He has surrendered five homers in all other innings combined. So yes, it has taken him a little time to get rolling.
Indeed, in evaluating this, also understand that Milwaukee is the team that comes to bat first. That means they have two distinct edges in the prop.
NO RUNS TO BE SCORED IN SECOND INNING (-160)
The “yes” on this prop is +125, and that simply isn’t enough, considering what these pitchers have demonstrated they can do.
Lance Lynn has been absolutely devastating in the second innings of games, presumably as he is going through the bottom half of the order. He has held opponents to a slashline of .091/.167/.145.
We mentioned above that Woodruff takes a bit of time to get rolling, but when he rolls, he rolls big time. In the second innings of his starts, he has been kind of nasty, yielding a slashline of .164/.211/.224, with a 0.737 WHIP ratio.
And by the way, he is even more deadly in the third inning, as he has held the opposition to a .095 batting average and .127 slugging, a 0.526 WHIP and 1.58 strikeouts per inning. So the lesson is that you had better get to him early.
1ST FIVE INNINGS: BREWERS UNDER 1.5 RUNS (+130)
Lance Lynn has allowed just one run in his last 24-2/3 innings pitching against the Brewers. You may read this on a “handicapping” site or hear it from an announcer, but remember that these starts took place between 2015 and 2017, when he was a member of the St.Louis Cardinals.
But history against certain hitters does tend to stick with a guy, and so it is useful to go over that. The guy who has posed the most difficulty for Lynn is Jackie Bradley, who has reached base eight out of 12 times, with a couple of homers. The problem for Bradley is that he is having a lousy season, hitting only .175, with six homers in more than 300 plate appearances. So he isn’t really doing a lot of damage to ANYBODY these days, although we should note that he’s hit above .300 over his last eight games.
Avisaíl García, Milwaukee’s burly DH who has 17 homers to his credit, can’t seem to touch Lynn, with a .118 average and nine strikeouts in 18 plate appearances. Christian Yelich has two home runs against Lynn, but has reached base only one time otherwise.
TOTAL RUNS UNDER 2.5 IN FIRST THREE INNINGS (-140)
Yes, we wonder about Woodruff’s occasional difficulties in the first inning. But we know they aren’t catastrophic, and that once he gets by that, there’s some smooth sailing for a while. We also have to acknowledge that against the following combination of players – Yoan Moncada, Brian Goodwin, Jose Abreu, Billy Hamilton, Leury Garcia, Zack Collins – they have one hit in 19 at bats against him.
Over the first three innings of his starts, Lynn has allowed a .159 batting average, and eight extra base hits in 51 innings. Woodruff has pitched to a .152 batting average over the first three, with nine extra base hits. So they are both going to be tough to score on.
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