The NFL Draft is complete and now all that’s left is waiting for the start of the season.
Did you make money betting on the draft? My NFL Draft best bets ended up going 3-2 (+0.8U) for a small profit. Now, I’m shifting my focus to a season-long NFL futures market.
We’re going to discuss the 2020 NFL regular season win totals betting market today.
There’s still some uncertainty on where some free agents will land, including QB Cam Newton and EDGE Jadeveon Clowney, but we have a good idea how most teams will look this fall.
NFL Teams With Highest/Lowest Win Totals
First off, you can bet on NFL win totals at America’s Bookie or BetOnline.
The highest regular season win total belongs to the Ravens and Chiefs (11.5 Games). Needing a team to win 12+ games to cash on the over is steep and doesn’t interest me.
I also wouldn’t bet on the under on the Ravens or Chiefs either.
The lowest regular season win total belongs to the Panthers, Bengals, Jaguars and Redskins (5.5 Games). Eight teams finished with five or fewer wins during the 2019 NFL regular season.
2020 NFL Regular Season Win Total Best Bets
Here are my top two predictions for the NFL futures win totals market this season:
#1 Indianapolis Colts Under 9 Wins (-110)
Last Season’s Record: 7-9 (3rd in the AFC South)
Top 5 Draft Picks: WR Michael Pittman Jr. (#34), RB Jonathan Taylor (#41), S Julian Blackmon (#85), QB Jacob Eason (#122) and OL Danny Pinter (#149)
New Additions: QB Philip Rivers, DT DeForest Buckner, DT Sheldon Day, TE Trey Burton, CB TJ Carrie, CB Xavier Rhodes and FB Roosevelt Nix
After being shocked by Andrew Luck’s retirement, the Colts did well to finish 7-9 last season.
QB Jacoby Brissett struggled in 2019 and finished with a completion percentage of 60.8%. However, Rivers wasn’t any better in 2019 with the Chargers. Brissett finished 2019 with a 52.1 QB rating and 88.0 passer rating, while Rivers finished with a 48.9 QB rating and 88.5 passer rating.
Rivers finished the year with 4,615 passing yards (4th best in the NFL) and 23 TDs (15th), but he tossed 20 INTs, which was the third worst mark in the league behind only Baker Mayfield and Jameis Winston.
The Colts bring back all five starters from a strong offensive line after resigning T Anthony Castonzo and Le’Raven Clark, which will help maintain the Colts run game (133.1 RYPG – 7th in 2019). I’m also a fan of the move up in the draft to select Wisconsin’s Taylor in the second round.
Last season, the Colts allowed 248.9 PYPG (23rd), but they went out and signed Rhodes/Carrie to bolster the secondary. Blackmon will also slot into the secondary once he’s healthy (ACL).
Will the Colts moves improve them by three wins? No way. I expect Colts fans to be calling for Eason by the mid-point of the season. Rivers should have retired. He had way more weapons in LA and was unable to do anything last season. My money is on another 7-9 season at best.
The Colts schedule is tough. Last season they went 3-3 in division play. Let’s say they repeat that.
They would need to go 7-3 in their remaining 10 games for us to lose this wager. I have them losing to the Ravens, Packers and Vikings at home. They also have tough road games @CHI, @PIT and @LV.
#2 Atlanta Falcons Over 7.5 Wins (-120)
Last Season’s Record: 7-9 (2nd in NFC South)
Top 5 Draft Picks: CB A.J. Terrell (#16), DE Marlon Davidson (#52), C Matt Hennessy (#78), LB Mykal Walker (#119) and S Jaylinn Hawkins (#134)
New Additions: RB Todd Gurley, DE Dante Fowler Jr., DT Tyeler Davison, S Sharrod Neasman, FB Keith Smith, WR Laquon Treadwell, OG Justin McCray, TE Hayden Hurst, CB Blidi Wreh-Wilson, LB LaRoy Reynolds, TE Khari Lee and LB Edmond Robinson.
The Falcons are all-in on the 2020 NFL season. They had an extremely busy off-season. The two big moves were the signings of Fowler Jr. and Gurley. Fowler Jr. was signed to a three-year, $48 million deal and he’ll be expected to cause havoc on QBs, alongside Grady Jarrett.
Gurley signed a one-year prove it deal after being released by the Rams. There’s little downside for the Falcon here, and maybe Gurley will be able to find his University of Georgia form in Atlanta.
First Take reacts to Todd Gurley signing with the Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta needed to do something drastic with the run game after averaging 85.1 RYPG (30th) in 2019. The pass game among the league’s best, averaging 294.6 PYPG (3rd).
After starting the 2019 season with a 1-7 record, the season was over for the Falcons. However, they finished the season strong, going 6-2 down the stretch with four wins in a row to end the season.
In 2019, Matt Ryan threw for 4,466 yards (5th), 26 TDs (8th) and 14 INTs (Tied for 6th worst in the NFL league stats). He has to watch his interceptions, but there’s no doubt he’ll have success airing it out.
WRs Julio Jones (1,394 yards and 6 TDs) and Calvin Ridley (866 yards and 7 TDs) are back. Losing Austin Hooper (787 yards and 6 TDs) at TE hurts and Hurst is unlikely to replace his production.
Defensively, the Falcons allowed 24.9 PPG (23rd) and 355.8 YPG (20th) in 2019. The secondary needed the most work and adding Terrell at #16 in the draft, while a bit of a reach, was necessary.
So, how do the Falcons get to 8 wins? First off, let’s assume they go 4-2 in division play again. Sure, Tom Brady is now in the NFC South, but I still expect ATL/TB to split the series again. I also expect them to split the series with the Saints and then sweep the Panthers.
That means they only need four more wins in ten games. Home games against the Bears, Broncos, Lions and Raiders are all winnable. Let’s say they go 3-1 to get to seven wins. They’d only need one more win. Their away schedule is tough, but they’ll pick up the final win along the way.
Updated 2020 NFL Win Total Odds (April 28th 2020)
There has been hardly any movement this month in the win totals market.
Three teams have seen their win total move since the NFL Draft. The Colts moved from 8.5 wins to 9 wins, the Rams moved from 9 wins to 8.5 wins and the Buccaneers moved from 9 wins to 9.5 wins.
Here are the updated 2020 NFL regular season win total odds for every team:
Arizona Cardinals: Over 7.5 Wins (-110) vs. Under 7.5 Wins (-110)
Atlanta Falcons: Over 7.5 Wins (-120) vs. Under 7.5 Wins (+100)
Baltimore Ravens: Over 11.5 Wins (-110) vs. Under 11.5 Wins (-110)
Buffalo Bills: Over 9 Wins (-110) vs. Under 9 Wins (-110)
Carolina Panthers: Over 5.5 Wins (+100) vs. Under 5.5 Wins (-120)
Chicago Bears: Over 8.5 Wins (+115) vs. Under 8.5 (-135)
Cincinnati Bengals: Over 5.5 Wins (-115) vs. Under 5.5 Wins (-105)
Cleveland Browns: Over 8.5 Wins (-105) vs. Under 8.5 Wins (-115)
Dallas Cowboys: Over 9.5 Wins (-115) vs. Under 9.5 Wins (-105)
Denver Broncos: Over 7.5 Wins (-125) vs. Under 7.5 Wins (+105)
Detroit Lions: Over 6.5 Wins (-115) vs. Under 6.5 Wins (-105)
Green Bay Packers: Over 9.5 Wins (+125) vs. Under 9.5 Wins (-145)
Houston Texans: Over 8 Wins (+130) vs. Under 8 Wins (-150)
Indianapolis Colts: Over 9 Wins (-110) vs. Under 9 Wins (-110)
Jacksonville Jaguars: Over 5.5 Wins (+155) vs. Under 5.5 Wins (-175)
Kansas City Chiefs: Over 11.5 Wins (-125) vs. Under 11.5 Wins (+100)
Las Vegas Raiders: Over 7.5 Wins (+100) vs. Under 7.5 Wins (-120)
Los Angeles Chargers: Over 7.5 Wins (-125) vs. Under 7.5 Wins (+105)
Los Angeles Rams: Over 8.5 Wins (-115) vs. Under 8.5 Wins (-105)
Miami Dolphins: Over 6 Wins (-140) vs. Under 6 Wins (+120)
Minnesota Vikings: Over 9 Wins (+100) vs. Under 9 Wins (-120)
New England Patriots: Over 9 Wins (-105) vs. Under 9 Wins (-115)
New Orleans Saints: Over 10 Wins (-150) vs. Under 10 Wins (+130)
New York Giants: Over 6.5 Wins (-105) vs. Under 6.5 Wins (-115)
New York Jets: Over 7 Wins (+110) vs. Under 7 Wins (-130)
Philadelphia Eagles: Over 9.5 Wins (-120) vs. Under 9.5 Wins (+100)
Pittsburgh Steelers: Over 9.5 Wins (+110) vs. Under 9.5 Wins (-130)
San Francisco 49ers: Over 10.5 Wins (-120) vs. Under 10.5 Wins (+100)
Seattle Seahawks: Over 9 Wins (-135) vs. Under 9 Wins (+115)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Over 9.5 Wins (-130) vs. Under 9.5 Wins (+110)
Tennessee Titans: Over 8.5 Wins (-120) vs. Under 8.5 Wins (+100)
Washington Redskins: Over 5.5 Wins (+105) vs. Under 5.5 Wins (-125)
