UFC 279 is on Saturday at the T-Mobile Arena Paradise, Nevada.

The main event will feature Khamzat Chimaev vs. Nate Diaz. This is a surprising main event. Chimaev is the top young fighter in the UFC, while Diaz could be making his last appearance in the UFC.

Diaz has been in the media stating how he doesn’t even want to fight on Saturday.

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It seems the UFC is setting him up to fail in the main event. The co-main event will feature Li Jingliang vs. Tony Ferguson. Diaz vs. Ferguson would have been a better fight.

Diaz isn’t even ranked at welterweight these days, so why is Chimaev not fighting a tougher opponent?

I’m a huge fan of Diaz, but he’s being done dirty by Dana White and the UFC brass.

Chimaev vs. Diaz Predictions

Fight Odds: Chimaev (-1800) vs. Diaz (+900)

There isn’t too much to say about this mismatch. Chimaev (11-0) is undefeated and he’s 5-0 in the UFC.

Chimaev stopped his first four opponents, but ran into a little resistance against Gilbert Burns. That fight went the distance. Diaz (20-13) is 1-2 since 2019 with two consecutive losses.

Diaz went the full five rounds last year in his most recent fight against Leon Edwards.

Chimaev averages 7.89 SLpM, but he also eats 4.30 SApM. Diaz averages 4.51 SLpM and 3.73 SApM.

Borz is extremely powerful for a welterweight and he’ll likely take this fight to the ground to pound out Diaz at some point. However, will Diaz be able to last a few rounds against the Swede?

I like Diaz to battle it out and last at least a couple rounds on Saturday night.

Best Bet: Over 1.5 Rounds (-155)

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Jingliang vs. Ferguson Predictions

Fight Odds: Jingliang (-305) vs. Ferguson (+255)

Jingliang (19-7) is only 3-2 since 2019, but his losses were against quality fighters (Chimaev and Magny).

He knocked out his opponents in the three wins. He has power with 10 TKO/KO wins in his career. He averages 4.39 SLpM and 3.66 SApM. He also averages 1.27 takedowns per 15 minutes.

Ferguson (25-7) is on the tail end of his career and he has lost four fights in a row. He hasn’t won since knocking out Cerrone in 2019. Justin Gaethje and Michael Chandler have both knocked him out.

One edge Ferguson will have is reach. He has a 5” reach advantage. He averages 5.12 SLpM and 3.81 SApM. However his output has been brutal lately and he’s unlikely to pull off the upset.

He only landed 19 strikes in three full rounds against Charles Oliveira and 15 in three full rounds against Beneil Dariush. My best bet in the co-main event is Jingliang to win by knockout.

Best Bet: Jingliang By TKO/KO (+110)

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Walker vs. Cutelaba Predictions

Fight Odds: Walker (+165) vs. Cutelaba (-195)

Johnny Walker (18-7) is at risk of being released from the UFC soon with another loss. Ion Cutelaba (16-7-1-1) also needs a win, but at 28-years-old, likely isn’t at risk of being released anytime soon.

Cutelaba was knocked out twice by Magomed Ankalaev in 2020. He followed that up with a 1-0-1 record in 2021 and he’s coming off a loss against Ryan Spann (Submission) earlier this year.

Walker has lost four of his last five fights. His lone win was against Ryan Spann (TKO). His losses were against quality opponents, but he was knocked out twice in his four recent losses.

Walker has now been knocked out four times in his career. Cutelaba has power and puts pressure on his opponents. He also averages 4.75 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Walker only has 62% TDD.

Cutelaba averages 4.81 SLpM and 3.39 SApM, while Walker averages 3.45 SLpM and 2.78 SapM.

Walker will have a 7” reach advantage, but Cutelaba will look to push forward to negate the reach. Walker only has a chance at landing a big shot to win, but Cutelaba has more ways to win this fight.

Best Bet: Cutelaba ML (-190)

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UFC 279 Parlay Predictions

There are a number of favorites at UFC 279 that should get the job done on parlay bets.

Here’s my best parlay for UFC 279:

Jingliang ML + Cutelaba ML + Dawodu ML (Payout Odds: +190)

Hakeem Dawodu (13-2-1) fights Julian Erosa (27-9) in the final prelims fights on Saturday.

Dawodu lost his first UFC fight back in 2018, but he has gone 6-1 since. His only loss during his recent run was against Movsar Evloev (Decision) last year. He’s coming off a win against Michael Trizano.

Erosa is 4-1 in the UFC since joining the promotion in 2020. His lone loss was against Seung Woo Choi (KO), but he has bounced back with two wins against Charles Jourdain and Steve Peterson.

The big difference in this fight is striking defense. Dawodu averages only 2.72 SApM. Erosa averages 6.51 SApM and that’s not a good thing against an active striker like Dawodu.

A few other favorites that should be safe on UFC 279 parlays include Jailton Almeida vs. Anton Turkalj, Jake Collier vs. Chris Barnett and Norman Dumont vs. Danyelle Wolf.

By adding Almeida, Collier and Dumont to my parlay bet above, the payout odds increase to +417 and I recommend throwing down a unit on these six fighters together on a parlay.

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UFC 279 Betting Lines

Khamzat Chimaev (-1800) vs. Nate Diaz (+900)

Li Jingliang (-305) vs. Tony Ferguson (+255)

Kevin Holland (-200) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (+170)

Irene Aldana (-180) vs. Macy Chiasson (+155)

Johnny Walker (+165) vs. Ion Cutelaba (-195)

Hakeem Dawodu (-225) vs. Julian Erosa (+190)

Jailton Almeida (-660) vs. Anton Turkalj (+490)

Denis Tiuliulin (+110) vs. Jamie Pickett (-130)

Jake Collier (-410) vs. Chris Barnett (+330)

Norma Dumont (-410) vs. Danyelle Wolf (+330)

Chad Anheliger (+145) vs. Alatengheili (-170)

Melissa Martinez (-155) vs. Elise Reed (+135)

Darian Weeks (-125) vs. Yohan Lainesse (+105)