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UFC Fight Night 209 (UFC Paris) will be hosted at the Accor Arena in Paris, France.
The main event will feature a heavyweight fight between Ciryl Gane and Tai Tuivasa. The co-main event features two of the top middleweights in Robert Whittaker and Marvin Vettori.
Two Canadians (John Makdessi and Charles Jourdain) are also fighting on the main card.
Gane vs. Tuivasa Predictions
Fight Odds: Gane (-520) vs. Tuivasa (+410)
Gane (10-1) started his UFC career going 7-0 with two TKO and two submission wins. He lost for the first time in his last fight against Francis Ngannou, but he lasted the full five rounds.
Tuivasa (14-3) has gone 5-0 in the UFC since 2020 with all the fights ending by TKO/KO.
Gane will have the home crowd behind him, but this is a tough test. One big edge for Gane will be his big reach advantage (81” vs. 75”). He’s also the better technical striker and has shown great defense.
Gane averages 4.83 SLpM (58% accuracy) and 2.27 SApM (62% defense), while Tuivasa averages 4.54 SLpM (52% accuracy) and 3.56 SApM (48% defense). Neither fighter has a great ground game.
Only Junior dos Santos has knocked out Tuivasa previously. I expect Gane to win, but will he able to stop his opponent? With the fight being in France and Gane coming off a loss, I expect him to win by TKO/KO.
Best Bet: Gane By TKO/KO (+120)
Whittaker vs. Vettori Predictions
Fight Odds: Whittaker (-210) vs. Vettori (+180)
Whittaker (23-6) has only two losses dating back to June 2014 and both were against Israel Adesanya. He isn’t the most exciting fighter and most of his recent wins have come by decision.
Vettori (18-5-1) is 6-2 in the UFC since 2019 and both of his losses were also against Adesanya. Five of his six wins since 2019 have come by decision and it’s likely this fight goes the distance.
These two match-up well on paper. Whittaker averages 4.45 SLpM and 3.32 SApM. Vettori averages 4.35 SLpM and 3.48 SApM. Vettori averages 2.04 takedowns per 15 minutes, but Whittaker has 83% TDD.
If Vettori is unable to take the fight to the mat, it’s going to be difficult to outpoint Whittaker. Whittaker has better striking and he utilizes leg kicks, which helps him outscore his opponents.
Best Bet: Whittaker By Decision (-115)
UFC Fight Night 209 Underdog Special
In the first fight on the main card, Jourdain (13-5-1) will fight Nathaniel Wood (18-5).
Jourdain is a small favorite (-150) and Wood is a live underdog (+130) on the main card. Jourdain is 3-2 in the UFC since 2021 and he’s coming off a loss against Shane Burgos (Decision) in July.
Wood is 2-2 since 2020 with decision wins against John Castaneda and Charles Rosa. His two losses were against John Dodson (TKO) and Casey Kenney (Decision).
Jourdain is a brawler, but that could hurt him in this fight, as Wood is also an active striker with lots of power (9 TKO/KO wins). Wood averages 6.32 SLpM and Jourdain averages 5.85 SLpM.
Both fighters take a lot of punishment in the cage as well. Wood averages 4.19 SApM and Jourdain averages 4.31 SApM. Wood is also capable of taking the fight to the mat and submitting his opponent.
This will be a close fight, but we’re getting a good price on Wood to win.
Best Bet: Wood to Win (+130)
UFC Fight Night 209 Prelims Best Bet
There are some great fights scheduled for the prelims at UFC Paris this weekend.
The fight I’ll be targeting for my prelims best bet is Nassourdine Imavov (11-3) vs. Joaquin Buckley (15-4).
These two fighters are both powerful. Imavov has 5 TKO/KO wins. He’s 3-1 in the UFC and he knocked out his last two opponents (Ian Heinisch and Edmen Shahbazyan).
Buckley is 5-2 since joining the UFC in 2020. He has won three fights in a row, including two knockouts against Antonio Arroyo and Albert Duraev. Only one of his UFC fights went the distance.
Imavov averages 4.29 SLpM and 2.23 SApM, while Buckley averages 3.74 SLpM and 3.42 SApM.
There’s a good chance this doesn’t go the distance and either fighter is capable of landing a KO.
Best Bet: Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance (-175)
UFC Fight Night 209 Parlay Predictions
There are a number of favorites that should pick up wins this weekend. Gane and Whittaker will feature heavily on my parlay bets this weekend and I’ll mix in some other favorites.
Here are my two top parlay bets for UFC Fight Night 209:
Gane ML + Whittaker ML + Haqparast ML (+152 Payout Odds)
Nasrat Haqparast (13-5) is coming off two losses and needs a win against John Makdessi (18-7).
Makdessi is 37-years-old and nearing the end of his fighting career. Haqparast will have a 4” reach edge in this fight, which he’ll be able to utilize to outpoint Makdessi and earn the victory.
Gane ML + Whittaker ML + Egger ML (+146 Payout Odds)
Stephanie Egger (7-3) is favored to defeat Ailin Perez (7-1) on the prelim card.
Egger is 2-2 in the UFC, but coming off a submission loss against Mayra Bueno Silva. Perez will be making her UFC debut and she has power (4 TKO/KO wins).
Egger has the experience edge. If she can avoid taking big shots and take this fight to the mat, she’ll win. She averages 3.29 takedowns per 15 minutes and has landed at least one takedown in every UFC fight.
UFC Fight Night 209 Betting Lines
Here are the latest odds for every UFC Paris fight:
Ciryl Gane (-520) vs. Tai Tuivasa (+410)
Robert Whittaker (-210) vs. Marvin Vettori (+180)
Alessio Di Chirico (-110) vs. Roman Kopylov (-110)
John Makdessi (+195) vs. Nasrat Haqparast (-230)
William Gomis (-215) vs. Jarno Errens (+185)
Charles Jourdain (-150) vs. Nathaniel Wood (+130)
Abus Magomedov (-265) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (+225)
Fares Ziam (+170) vs. Michal Figlak (-200)
Nassourdine Imavov (-255) vs. Joaquin Buckley (+215)
Benoit Saint-Denis (-285) vs. Gabriel Miranda (+240)
Khalid Taha (-120) vs. Cristian Quinonez (+100)
Stephanie Egger (-250) vs. Ailin Perez (+210)
