UFC on ABC 3 (UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez) is on Saturday, July 16th 2022.

Make sure you set your alarm Saturday, as the prelims get underway at 11:00 AM ET on ESPN+. The main card will begin at 2:00 PM ET on ABC. The event will be hosted at UBS Arena in Elmont, NY.

There are six prelim fights and six main card fights on the schedule in Long Island.

Ortega vs. Rodriguez Predictions

Fight Odds: Ortega (-180) vs. Rodriguez (+155)

Brian Ortega (15-2-0-1) will fight Yair Rodriguez (13-3-0-1) in the main event.

Neither fighter has been very active inside the cage in recent years. Ortega lost to Max Holloway in 2018 by TKO (Doctor Stoppage). Since then, he’s 1-1 with both fights going the distance.

He defeated Chan Sung Jung in 2020 and lost to Alexander Volkanovski in 2021.

Rodriguez is coming off a 5-round decision loss against Holloway last November. Prior to that, his last fight was a decision win against Jeremy Stephens in September 2019.

Both fighters are capable with their striking. Ortega averages 4.15 SLpM (38% accuracy), but he eats a lot of shots (6.69 SApM). Rodriguez averages 4.65 SLpM and 4.09 SApM.

Rodriguez will have a 2” reach advantage in the fight. The big difference is the ground game. Ortega has landed 7 takedowns in his last 3 fights, while Rodriguez has been taken down 6 times in his last 2 fights.

Ortega also has 7 victories by submission. We’re siding with the #2 ranked featherweight.

Best Bet: Ortega ML (-180)

Waterson vs. Lemos Predictions

Fight Odds: Waterson (+275) vs. Lemos (-335)

The co-main event features Michelle Waterson (18-9) and Amanda Lemos (11-2-1).

Lemos is a big favorite to win the fight and we agree, but we’re not paying the juice on the ML. One thing about Waterson is she’s extremely durable. She’s 4-4 in her last 8 fights and all have gone the distance.

Lemos went 5-0 between 2019-2021, finishing three of her opponents. She’s coming off a submission loss against Jessica Andrade earlier this year and will want to get back in the win column.

Waterson will want to take this fight to the mat if she can, as Lemos has the striking edge. Lemos comes into the fight averaging 5.14 SLpM and Waterson averages 4.13 SApM.

Lemos will also have a 3” reach advantage in the fight.

Best Bet: Lemos By Decision (+105)

Murphy vs. Tate Predictions

Fight Odds: Murphy (+175) vs. Tate (-205)

Lauren Murphy (15-5) is coming off a TKO loss against Valentina Shevchenko last September, but prior to that she was on a 5-fight win streak. She’s 6-2 since moving down to flyweight in 2017.

Miesha Tate (19-8) is 1-3 in her last 4 fights and she hasn’t been very active. She didn’t fight between 2017-2020. She went 1-1 last year, but she’s coming off a loss against Ketlen Vieira.

These two veterans will open the UFC on ABC 3 main card on Saturday afternoon.

Murphy is a live underdog. She has a 2” reach advantage and averages 3.58 SLpM. Tate averages 2.41 SLpM. Tate will look for takedowns, but Murphy has 65% takedown defense (TDD).

In her two losses at flyweight, Murphy lost the takedown battle (3-0 against Shevchenko and 2-0 against Sijara Eubanks). If she avoids getting taken down, she’ll win this fight.

Best Bet: Murphy ML (+175)

Simon vs. Shore Predictions

Fight Odds: Simon (+140) vs. Shore (-165)

Jack Shore (16-0) is undefeated and he’s 5-0 since joining the UFC in 2019. After winning his first two UFC fights by submission, Shore has won his last three fights by decision.

Ricky Simon (19-3) will be a good test for Shore. Simon is 7-2 since joining the UFC in 2018. He lost two fights back in 2019 against Urijah Faber (TKO) and Rob Font (Decision).

Since those two losses, Simon is on a 4-fight win streak with two stoppage victories.

Both fighters like to utilize takedowns. Shore averages 4.13 takedowns per 15 minutes and Simon lands 6.76 takedowns per 15 minutes. However, Shore has 84% TDD, while Simon has 72% TDD.

Simon has some power (6 TKO/KO wins), but Shore has the edge in striking.

Best Bet: Shore ML (-165)

UFC on ABC 3 Parlay Picks

Parlay Bet: Ortega ML + Lemos ML + Shore ML (+225 Payout Odds)

There aren’t many banker bets that can be used for UFC parlays this weekend.

The majority of the fights on the UFC on ABC 3 fight card are expected to be close. We recommend going with Ortega to win, Lemos to win and Shore to win as the top parlay bet.

If you want a longshot parlay with better payout odds, bet on the following:

Parlay Bet: Ortega ITD + Lemos By Decision + Shore By Decision (+1310 Payout Odds)

At over 13/1 payout odds, this parlay has a great shot at cashing on Saturday.

Shore is going to be tested and his last three wins have been by decision. Waterson will likely be able to make it to the judges’ scorecards against Lemos and Ortega has 5 rounds to finish Rodriguez.

UFC on ABC 3 Betting Lines

Here are the betting odds for every UFC on ABC 3 fight:

Brian Ortega (-180) vs. Yair Rodriguez (+155)

Michelle Waterson (+275) vs. Amanda Lemos (-330)

Li Jingliang (+140) vs. Muslim Salikhov (-165)

Matt Schnell (+230) vs. Su Mudaerji (-275)

Shane Burgos (-155) vs. Charles Jourdain (+135)

Lauren Murphy (+175) vs. Miesha Tate (-205)

Punahele Soriano (-225) vs. Dalcha Lungiambula (+190)

Ricky Simon (+140) vs. Jack Shore (-165)

Bill Algeo (-200) vs. Herbert Burns (+170)

Dustin Jacoby (+100) vs. Da-Un Jung (-120)

Dwight Grant (-135) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (+115)

Jessica Penne (+130) vs. Emily Ducote (-150)