UFC on ESPN 19: Hermansson vs. Vettori Picks

Hey guys!

Sorry for missing last week’s UFC picks, I was out of commission for a few days.

This Saturday, UFC on ESPN 19 (UFC Vegas 16) will feature Jack Hermansson vs. Marvin Vettori in the main event. The event will take place at the UFC APEX Facility.

---

Bet on UFC Vegas 16 at the Top US Sportsbooks

---

UFC 256 is next week, so let’s build the bankroll, so we can go big next week.

Hermansson vs. Vettori Prediction

Fight Odds: Hermansson (+110) vs. Vettori (-130)

Hermansson (21-5) is 8-3 in the UFC and has won five of his last six fights. He was knocked out last year by Cannonier, but he bounced back earlier this year by tapping out Gastelum in 1:18.

Vettori (15-4-1) is 5-2-1 in the UFC and he has won three consecutive fights. He has picked up wins against Ferreira, Sanchez and Roberson. However, he shouldn’t be favored here.

Apart from Cannonier, Hermansson has been running through middleweights. He deserves a better fight than this, but he had multiple opponents have to drop out, which is why we’re here.

It’s a tough spot for The Joker, as he should win, but he has all the pressure to perform.

Hermansson has a 3’’ reach advantage. He also averages more strikes (5.08 SLpM vs. 4.33 SLpM) and takedowns per 15 minutes (2.19 vs. 1.67). This is definitely his fight to lose.

Both guys have great submissions. Hermansson has six submission wins and Vettori has nine.

Neither guy is likely going to be able to tap the other out and Hermansson has the striking edge. He has 11 TKO/KO wins whereas the Italian only has 2 TKO/KO wins in his career.

Best Bet: Jack Hermansson ML (+110) at America’s Bookie

---

Become an Expert UFC Handicapper

---

Ovince St. Preux vs. Jamahal Hill

Fight Odds: St. Preux (+145) vs. Hill (-170)

Hill (7-0-0-1) is undefeated with a 1-0-0-1 record in the UFC. He won his last fight against Abreu in the opening round by knockout, but it was overturned because he tested positive for marijuana.

St. Preux (25-14) is only 3-4 in the UFC since 2018. He’s a worthy veteran opponent, but he’s not going to be fighting for a title. He’s coming off a big KO win against Menifield in September.

While Hill is undefeated, he hasn’t been tested against a fighter like St. Preux. Menifield was also a hyped prospect before losing to OSP and Hill could end up suffering the same fate.

Hill has some power (3 TKO/KO wins), but OSP has a great chin. He has only been knocked out twice in his long career and the last time was way back in 2016 against Manuwa.

It’s the classic veteran vs. prospect battle – who will survive?

OSP has turned into an efficient finisher. Since 2017, he has six wins and all of them have come by stoppage. Two of his recent losses were by submission, but Hill has no submission wins.

Hill comes into this fight averaging 7.90 SLpM. He has come out firing in all of his fights. He has weak takedown defense (53%), though, plus Stosic was able to take him down six times.

OSP could look to take him to the mat and pound him out. St. Preux has the experience to win. He’ll likely feel out Hill in the opening round, but I expect him to turn the heat up in the second round.

I’m taking the value on the live underdog here. I expect the dogs to be barking again this week.

Best Bet: Ovince St. Preux ML (+145) at BetOnline

UFC Vegas 16 Parlay Picks

Here’s my UFC on ESPN 19 parlay bet:

Villante ML + Leavitt ML + Topuria ML (+162 Odds)

We’re going with three favorites to win at UFC on ESPN 19.

Gian Villante (17-12) is fighting Jake Collier (11-5) Both fighters have had struggles recently, but I’m going with Villante, as he has the power edge and Collier has a questionable chin.

Jordan Leavitt (7-0) is making his promotional debut, but he’s highly hyped. Matt Wiman (16-9) is a veteran, but after returning to the UFC in 2019, he’s 0-2 with two submission losses.

Lastly, Ilia Topuria (9-0) is fighting Damon Jackson (18-3-1-1). Jackson beat Bektic in his debut and Topuria defeated Zalal in his debut. Look for Topuria to win this one by submission.

---

Buy UFC Expert Picks to Crush Your Bookie

---

UFC Vegas 16 Betting Odds

Marvin Vettori (-130) vs. Jack Hermansson (+110)

Jamahal Hill (-170) vs. Ovince St. Preux (+145)

Taila Santos (-205) vs. Montana de La Rosa (+175)

Roman Dolidze (-190) vs. John Allan (+165)

Movsar Evloev (-650) vs. Nate Landwehr (+475)

Gabriel Benitez (-215) vs. Justin Jaynes (+185)

Louis Smolka (-130) vs. Jose Quinonez (+110)

Jordan Leavitt (-400) vs. Matt Wiman (+300)

Jimmy Flick (-160) vs. Cody Durden (+140)

Ilia Topuria (-235) vs. Damon Jackson (+200)

Gian Villante (-190) vs. Jake Collier (+165)