The UFC is hosting another event this Saturday at UFC APEX in Las Vegas. UFC on ESPN+ 33 will be headlined by Aleksandar Rakic vs. Anthony Smith in the main event.
We’ve seen a number of fights have to be cancelled because of COVID-19 the last few events. It has been tough keeping fights booked, as one positive test results in the fight being cancelled. Many sports have had to cancel games, which has impacted online betting markets.
Some fights have also been cancelled because of injuries too. Ryan Hall had to pull out of this week’s event because of an injury. Ricardo Lamas will now fight newcomer Bill Algeo on the main card.
Geoff Neal is injured as well and Magny will now fight Lawler in the co-main event.
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Anthony Smith vs. Aleksandar Rakic Picks
Fight Odds: Rakic (-305) vs. Smith (+245)
Rakic (12-2) lost his first professional fight back in 2011. He joined the UFC in 2017 and he started out with a four-fight win streak prior to losing his last fight against Oezdemir (split decision).
The loss was controversial, though, as he won the striking (75-63) and takedown (1-0) battles.
One thing’s for sure, Rakic should have learned a lesson about letting the judges determine fights.
Smith (33-15) is a veteran with an 8-4 record since joining the UFC in 2016. He has been a very active fighter throughout his career, but he’s coming off a complete beating against Teixeira.
Teixeira finished Smith in the 5th round (TKO) after beating him up. To me, it seems Smith should be taking some more time off to recover, especially against a fighter like Rakic.
Rakic can take damage and he has lots of power (9 TKO/KO wins). Smith has a punchers chance here and could surprise us with an early finish, but if this fight enters round 2, Rakic should takeover.
Prior to the Oezdemir loss, Rakic had knockout wins against Clark and Manuwa. He’s a finisher, but Smith can take a ton of damage, as we just witnessed in his fight in May.
Rakic averages 5.17 SLpM and has solid defense (2.41 SApM). Smith averages 3.19 SLpM and 4.57 SApM. Rakic will also have a 2’’ reach advantage. Let’s see how much power he has.
Rakic will win, but his ML odds don’t interest, so I’m betting on Rakic inside the distance (ITD).
Best Bet: Aleksandar Rakic ITD (-125)
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Neil Magny vs. Robbie Lawler Picks
Fight Odds: Magny (-250) vs. Lawler (+200)
This fight is a lot more interesting than Magny vs. Neal would have been. Magny (23-7) has been on fire in 2020. After a long layoff, Magny is 2-0 this year with decision wins against Li and Martin.
Magny looked great in both fights. He dominated Li, but the Martin fight was closer. Magny isn’t a strong finisher (13 decision wins vs. 10 stoppage wins), but he’s tough to beat.
Lawler (28-14-0-1) had a great UFC run between 2014-16, but things have gone downhill. He’s just 1-4 in his last five UFC fights with the lone win coming against Cerrone (decision) in 2017.
He has lost his last three fights, including two in 2019 against Askren (submission) and Covington (decision). Does Lawler have anything left in the tank to pick up a win against Magny?
Magny will have a massive 6’’ reach advantage, plus he has strong takedowns. He averages 2.55 TDs per 15 minutes in the cage and Lawler only has 65% TDD. If Magny avoids eating a KO punch then he should be able to score enough volume to pick up his third decision win of the year.
Best Bet: Neil Magny By Decision (-145)
UFC on ESPN+ 33 Parlay Predictions
This week looks like it’s going to be a great week to bet on UFC parlays.
There are a number of big favorites that should win their fights, so rather than focus on straight bets this week, I’m going to share my best UFC on ESPN+ 33 parlay bets.
You can bet on UFC parlays at the best odds with America’s Bookie.
Rakic ML + Magny ML Parlay (-117 Odds)
My first parlay doesn’t quite pay even money, but we just need Rakic and Magny to win.
Rakic ML + Magny ML + Grasso ML + Lamas ML + Ankalaev ML Parlay (+371 Odds)
My second UFC on ESPN+ 33 parlay features all five of the main card fights. While it’s rare for a UFC main card to have zero underdogs cash, I expect that to be the case on Saturday.
Alexa Grasso (11-3) is a –315 favorite against Ji Yeon Kim (9-2-2), Ricardo Lamas (19-8) is favored (-205) in his fight against Bill Algeo (13-4) who will be making his promotional debut and in the first fight on the main card, Magomed Ankalaev (13-1) is a big –340 favorite to defeat Ion Cutelaba (15-5-0-1).
UFC on ESPN+ 33 Fight Card and Betting Lines
Aleksandar Rakic (-305) vs. Anthony Smith (+245)
Neil Magny (-250) vs. Robbie Lawler (+200)
Alexa Grasso (-315) vs. Ji Yeon Kim (+255)
Ricardo Lamas (-205) vs. Bill Algeo (+165)
Magomed Ankalaev (-340) vs. Ion Cutelaba (+270)
Impa Kasanganay (-140) vs. Maki Pitolo (+110)
Mallory Martin (-315) vs. Hannah Cifers (+255)
Alessio Di Chirico (-120) vs. Zak Cummings (-110)
Giga Chikdaze (-245) vs. Alex Caceres (+195)
Julian Marquez (-277) vs. Saparbek Safarov (+222)
Emily Whitmire (-120) vs. Polyana Viana (-110)
Sean Brady (-392) vs. Christian Aguilera (+302)
