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UFC on ESPN 41 (UFC San Diego) is on Saturday at Pechanga Arena in San Diego, California.
The prelims will begin at 4:30 PM ET and the main card gets underway at 7:00 PM ET. Watch the action live on ESPN or ESPN+ in the USA and TSN in Canada this weekend.
The main event will feature Marlon Vera vs. Dominick Cruz in a bantamweight fight. There are six fights scheduled on the main card and seven fights scheduled for the prelims.
Vera vs. Cruz Predictions
Fight Odds: Vera (-230) vs. Cruz (+195)
Vera (19-7-1) is 4-2 in the UFC since 2020 and he’s riding a three-fight win streak. Those wins have come against Davey Grant (Decision), Frankie Edgar (KO) and Rob Font (Decision).
Cruz (24-3) has won two fights in a row against Casey Kenney (Decision) and Rob Font (Decision).
This is a five-round fight, which should benefit the favorite due to excellent cardio.
Vera will have a 2” reach advantage and his striking has improved a lot in recent years. Both fighters have 7 TKO/KO wins. Vera also has 8 submission wins, while Cruz has only tapped out one opponent.
Vera averages 4.33 SLpM and 4.99 SApM, while Cruz averages 3.82 SLpM and 2.56 SApM.
Cruz’s defense isn’t what it once was. Despite winning his last two fights, he ate 74 shots in each fight. Vera has more power than those guys and there’s a chance Cruz gets knocked out for the second time.
Henry Cejudo knocked Cruz out in 2020 at UFC 249. In a three-round fight, I’d see more value in Cruz at plus money, but in a five-round fight, I’m betting on Vera to win inside the distance.
Best Bet: Vera ITD (+215)
Landwehr vs. Onama Predictions
Fight Odds: Landwehr (+235) vs. Onama (-280)
Nate Landwehr (15-4) went 1-1 in 2020 and 1-1 in 2021. He was knocked out by Herbert Burns and Julian Erosa. He defeated Darren Elkins (Decision) and Ludovit Klein (Submission).
David Onama (10-1) is 2-1 since joining the UFC last year. He’s 2-0 in 2022 with wins against Gabriel Benitez (KO) and Garrett Armfield (Submission). Onama has finished every opponent he has defeated.
These two guys are brawlers. Landwehr averages 6.51 SLpM and 5.96 SApM. Onama has a 2” reach advantage in this fight. Onama averages 5.61 SLpM and 5.58 SApM.
With both fighters throwing a lot of shots and neither having strong striking defense, this fight is likely to end inside the distance and my best bet for the co-main event is on under 2.5 rounds.
Best Bet: Under 2.5 Rounds (-163)
Jauregui vs. Lucindo Predictions
Fight Odds: Jauregui (-205) vs. Lucindo (+175)
Yazmin Jauregui (8-0) is undefeated in his career, while Jasmin Lucindo (13-4) has four losses. Both of these women’s strawweight fighters will be making their UFC debut on Saturday.
They’ll both be looking to make a splash and I expect them to come out swinging. Jauregui has won six of her fights by TKO/KO and Lucindo has won eight of her fights by TKO/KO.
Lucindo has been knocked out once and tapped out twice. I don’t know a lot about these two fighters, but I expect them both to go all out looking for a finish. I’m betting on the fight ending inside the distance.
Best Bet: Fight Ends Inside the Distance (+130)
Clark vs. Murzakanov Predictions
Fight Odds: Clark (+125) vs. Murzakanov (-145)
Devin Clark (13-6) is 7-6 in the UFC. He’s coming off a TKO win against William Knight, but he lost two fights prior to the win. He lost to Anthony Smith (Submission) and Ion Cutelaba (Decision).
Azamat Murzakanov (11-0) is undefeated and he won his UFC debut against Tafon Nchukwi (KO).
Murzakanov has won eight fights by TKO/KO. He has lots of power. However, the Russian fighter will need to deal with Clark’s 4” reach advantage.Clark is also the more experienced fighter.
Clark averages 3.08 SLpM and 2.54 SApM, while Murzakanov averages 2.69 SLpM and 3.42 SApM.
This is a tough fight to call, but I’m siding with the veteran. Clark needs to string some wins together and he has a chance to do that against an inexperienced fighter on Saturday.
Best Bet: Clark to Win (+125)
UFC on ESPN 41 Prelims Best Bet
Fight Odds: Calvillo (-180) vs. Nunes (+155)
Cynthia Calvillo (9-4-1) has lost three fights in a row. She has been knocked out in her last two fights against Jessica Andrade and Andrea Lee. She needs a win badly, but this is a tough match-up.
Nina Nunes (10-7) is on a two-fight losing streak. Those losses were against Tatiana Suarez (Decision) and Dern (Submission). Prior to the two losses, she was on a four-fight win streak.
Nunes has some big wins against Angela Hill and Claudia Gadelha.
Calvillo averages 4.27 SLpM and 4.10 SApM. She also averages 1.75 takedowns per 15 minutes and Nunes (76% takedown defense) has been taken down eight times in her last four fights.
Nunes lacks power and she only has one stoppage win (Submission) in the UFC.
If Calvillo is able to take this fight to the mat a few times, she’ll have a great shot at winning by decision. She may be outpointed in striking, which is why she needs to focus on takedowns.
Best Bet: Calvillo to Win (-180)
UFC on ESPN 41 Parlay Predictions
Here’s my best parlay for the UFC on ESPN 41 fight card:
Vera ML + Calvillo ML + Lipski ML (+237 Payout Odds)
Priscila Cachoeira (11-4) is 3-1 since 2020 with two TKO/KO wins. She has six knockout wins and packs a lot of power in her punches. However, she’s a bit one-dimensional and therefore predictable.
Ariane Lipski (14-7) has plenty of power as well (6 TKO/KO wins), but she has also been knocked out three times. She has been knocked out in two of her last three fights.
Lipski is coming off a win against Mandy Bohm. Lipski will need to avoid getting knocked out, but if she’s able to do that, she has more ways to win this fight than Cachoeira.
UFC on ESPN 41 Betting Lines
Marlon Vera (-230) vs. Dominick Cruz (+195)
Nate Landwehr (+235) vs. David Onama (-280)
Yazmin Jauregui (-205) vs. Jasmin Lucindo (+175)
Devin Clark (+125) vs. Azamat Murzakanov (-145)
Priscila Cachoeira (+165) vs. Ariane Lipski (-195)
Bruno Silva (-285) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (+240)
Angela Hill (+270) vs. Loopy Godinez (-325)
Martin Buday (-275) vs. Lukasz Brzeski (+230)
Cynthia Calvillo (-180) vs. Nina Nunes (+155)
Gabriel Benitez (-350) vs. Charlie Ontiveros (+290)
Ode’ Osbourne (-245) vs. Tyson Nam (+205)
Jason Witt (+210) vs. Josh Quinlan (-250)
Youssef Zalal (-125) vs. Da’mon Blackshear (+105)
