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UFC Vegas 63 will be hosted at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday.
The prelims will get underway at 4:00 PM ET and the main card begins at 7:00 PM ET. The main event will feature Calvin Kattar vs. Arnold Allen, the #5 and #6 ranked featherweights.
Here are the best bets for UFC Vegas 63 this weekend.
Kattar vs. Allen Predictions
Fight Odds: Kattar (-110) vs. Allen (-110)
Kattar (23-6) has struggled with consistency in the UFC. Kattar is 7-4 in the UFC, but only 3-3 in his last six fights. Kattar is coming off a loss against Josh Emmett by split decision in June.
Allen (18-1) is 9-0 in the UFC. He’s coming off a TKO win against Dan Hooker. Prior to that, he had won four fights by decision. Allen isn’t much of a finisher. He has stopped three fighters in the UFC.
Kattar averages 5.19 SLpM and 7.15 SApM. His striking defense is terrible. Allen comes into this fight averaging 3.31 SLpM and 2.22 SApM. Kattar will have a small 2” reach advantage.
Allen averages 1.41 takedowns per 15 minutes, but he hasn’t utilized takedowns as much recently. That likely won’t change in this fight, as Kattar has 91% takedown defense.
Kattar’s last four fights have gone the distance and all have been five rounds. Allen is a powerful striker and Kattar has poor defense, but there’s a good chance this fight will also go the distance.
Best Bet: Allen ML (-110) and Over 4.5 Rounds (-135)
Means vs. Griffin Predictions
Fight Odds: Means (+160) vs. Griffin (-190)
Means (32-13-1-1) is an experienced fighter with lots of rounds under his belt. However, he has never been a top contender in the UFC. He’s 3-1 in his last four fights, but coming off a loss to Kevin Holland.
Holland was able to land a submission against Means in the second round. Means has been tapped out six times in his career. Griffin (18-9) is also coming off a loss (Neil Magny by split decision).
Griffin only has two submission wins (none in the UFC) with the last one coming way back in 2014. He has nine TKO/KO wins, including two in his last four UFC fights.
Means averages 5.01 SLpM and 3.63 SApM, while Griffin averages 4.36 SLpM and 3.94 SApM. Griffin has the edge in takedown attempts, takedowns landed and submission attempts.
Griffin has heavy hands, but he’s unlikely to knockout Means. However, he has more ways to win this fight. He can utilize his striking to set-up takedowns where he’ll have a big edge on the mat.
Best Bet: Griffin ML (-190)
Hooper vs. Garcia Predictions
Fight Odds: Hooper (-295) vs. Garcia (+245)
Chase Hooper (11-2-1) is 3-2 in the UFC. He’s coming off a win against Felipe Dias Colares (TKO). He has been able to stop his opponent in his three UFC wins, two were by TKO and one by submission.
His two UFC losses were by decision against Alex Caceres and Steven Peterson.
Steve Garcia (12-5) is only 1-2 in the UFC. He lost to Luis Pena (decision), defeated Charlie Ontiveros (TKO) and lost to Maheshate Hayisaer (KO). He’s likely in trouble in this fight against Hooper.
Hooper has improved his power and striking in recent fights. He’s also lethal on the mat and can lock in submissions at any time. He has nine stoppage wins in 11 professional victories.
Garcia has been knocked out and submitted previously. He’s not going to be able to handle Hooper on the mat. His only hope is to land a knockout shot before Hooper gets the fight to the ground.
Hooper is my top UFC Vegas 63 prelims bet and I’m backing him to win inside the distance (ITD).
Best Bet: Hooper Inside the Distance (-110)
Arlovski vs. Rogerio de Lima Predictions
Fight Odds: Arlovski (+205) vs. Rogerio de Lima (-245)
Andrei Arlovski (34-20-0-2) may be 43-years-old, but that hasn’t slowed him down. He has won four consecutive fights and he’s 6-1 in his last seven fights dating back to 2020.
Marcos Rogerio de Lima (19-8-1) is a powerful striker, but he has dealt with inconsistency. He’s 3-3 in his last six fights dating back to 2019 and he’s coming off a loss against Blagoy Ivanov by decision.
Arlovski will have a 2” reach advantage in this fight. He averages 3.81 SLpM and 3.20 SApM. He’ll look to keep this fight standing. Rogerio de Lima averages 3.57 SLpM and 2.44 SApM.
Arlovski has 76% takedown defense. If he can keep this fight on the feet, he’ll have a good chance of winning his fifth in a row. Arlovski shouldn’t be priced at +205 and he’s my top underdog on the card.
Best Bet: Arlovski ML (+205)
UFC Vegas 63 Parlay Predictions
Here’s my best parlay bet for UFC Vegas 63 this weekend:
Griffin ML + Hooper ML + Rodriguez ML (+158 Payout Odds)
I’ve already discussed why I’m betting on Griffin and Hooper to win. Christian Rodriguez (7-1) lost his UFC debut against Jonathan Pearce by decision and needs to win this weekend.
He’ll fight Joshua Weems (11-2) who will be making his UFC debut. Rodriguez has great striking defense and Weems has little power (1 TKO/KO win). Weems has also been knocked out twice.
Rodriguez is the biggest favorite on the fight card and he needs to win this fight.
UFC Vegas 63 Betting Lines
Calvin Kattar (-110) vs. Arnold Allen (-110)
Tim Means (+160) vs. Max Griffin (-190)
Waldo Cortes Acosta (-195) vs. Jared Vanderaa (+165)
Josh Fremd (-150) vs. Tresean Gore (+130)
Dustin Jacoby (-170) vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. (+145)
Phil Hawes (-170) vs. Roman Dolidze (+145)
Andrei Arlovski (+205) vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima (-245)
Joseph Holmes (+190) vs. Junyong Park (-225)
Chase Hooper (-295) vs. Steve Garcia (+245)
Cody Durden (+140) vs. Carlos Mota (-165)
Christian Rodriguez (-380) vs. Joshua Weems (+330)
