Five Best Bets for the NFL Draft 

There was a sportsbook—a well-known, respected sportsbook—that offered odds on whether the Pittsburgh Steelers would trade the 33rd pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.

That seemed challenging enough; after all, the Steelers had the first pick in the second round, and there is always speculation as to what teams will do with first-round worthy players who may slip through the cracks.

But this sportsbook didn’t do all its homework. If it had, it would have realized that the Steelers didn’t own the 33rd pick. Under normal circumstances, they would. But these were not normal circumstances. The Miami Dolphins had their first-round selection (which would have been 21st overall) taken away by the league as a punishment for having tampered with Tom Brady and Sean Payton while both were under contract to another team. 

So, instead of 32 picks in the first round, there were only 31. Pittsburgh was picking 32nd, not 33rd.

The Steelers, by the way, took cornerback Joey Porter Jr., who wound up on the All-Rookie team. The 33rd pick was owned by the Tennessee Titans, who selected Will Revis and will move into the future with him at quarterback.

That sportsbook thus provided its customers with the best draft prop bet in the history of draft prop bets.

We can’t promise you something like that, but we may have created a few you can make money on.

Let’s start with one of them that isn’t included in these five but is a sure thing by all indications:

Caleb Williams – the foregone conclusion 

The USC quarterback (by way of Oklahoma) and Heisman Trophy can either sit back in the pocket or create a moving pocket, but even though he’s scored a lot of touchdowns, he’s not as much of a get-up-and-run guy as a Lamar Jackson or a Jalen Hurts. So he’s not as likely to put himself in the way of injury.

The Chicago Bears appear ready to build their offense around Williams and acquired weapons like WR Keenan Allen to help him. Sure, the seemingly impossible could happen. But it won’t. And you will have to lay 200-1 to take Williams in this prop. 

• Caleb Williams  -20000
• Jayden Daniels  +3300
• Drake Maye +4000
• Marvin Harrison Jr.  +10000
• J.J. McCarthy  +10000
• Michael Penix Jr,  +15000
• Bo Nix  +15000

Now, let’s get to where we see some value elsewhere. 

Will Jim Harbaugh draft a Michigan player?

• YES  -150

I believe this one is going to pay out. One thing I am absolutely sure of is that new Los Angeles Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh likes familiarity with the people around him. In rebuilding this offense, he is bringing aboard an offensive coordinator he’s worked with in the past Greg Roman. It’s pretty possible that Roman was dismissed by the other Harbaugh (John) because Lamar Jackson did not want to deal with his comprehensive playbook. It’s also likely that he was waiting for Jim to make his jump to the NFL, and that’s why he sat out a year.

Roman is known as a guru of the running game, and in the NFL he has had success with mobile quarterbacks who, in effect, served as another running back. In San Francisco he literally changed the offensive approach on the fly for Colin Kaepernick when Alex Smith got hurt, and did the same for Lamar Jackson in Baltimore after they made the switch from Joe Flacco.

But he’s also worked with pocket passers, notably Andrew Luck, when he was with Harbaugh at Stanford. He’ll have another dropback guy in Los Angeles with Justin Herbert, and you can bet they are looking to support him with a smashmouth ground game. That’s what both Harbaugh and Roman would love to do. And you know there was nothing more satisfying for Jim than the 303 rushing yards against Washington in the national championship game.

There are two major components to this plan. One of them is to build up the backfield. Austin Ekeler left, so Jim took two players from his brother John’s backfield – Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins. But Dobbins’ 2023 season ended in the opening game when he injured his Achilles, and no one can say for certain how he’ll come back from that.

On the second or even third round, Harbaugh might be able to find Blake Corum, his big-time running back at Michigan, who ran through U-Dub for 134 yards in the title game.

We should also mention that in the seven-round mock draft from the respected analytics site Pro Football Focus, they have the Chargers taking the outstanding Michigan cornerback Mike Sainristil in Round 2. 

And there are other Wolverines who are going to be drafted, like linebacker Michael Barrett, center Drake Nugent, guards Zac Zinter and Trevor Keegan, tackle Ladarius Henderson, wideout Cornelius Johnson or tight end AJ Barner who could be possibilities in the later rounds. The offensive linemen could be of particular interest, since Harbaugh and Roman will be seeking a lot of depth in that area. 

And that ties into another prop, if you want to be adventurous, as Corum carries with him a +190 price to wind up with his college coach: 

Team to Draft Blake Corum

• Los Angeles Chargers  +190
• New York Giants  +350
• Dallas Cowboys  +750
• Minnesota Vikings  +1200
• Baltimore Ravens +1400
• Cincinnati Bengals  +1600
• Las Vegas Raiders  +1600
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1600
• Houston Texans  +1800
• Los Angeles Rams  +1800

J.J. McCarthy  – Over/Under Draft Position 

• Under 5.5 Position  -135
• Over 5.5 Position -105

Have you ever wondered how a player moves up on everyone’s draft board and in everyone’s mock draft without really doing anything? Yeah, me too.

According to some of the scouts I talk to, the draft “gurus” are basically following each other; when one of them thinks he’s heard some information, the others feel like something material is happening. 

And maybe it is. The guys who are with the bigger media outlets are actually talking to people within organizations. And evidently there is word that there is so much interest among teams who need a quarterback that they are desperate to trade up as high as they can in order to land a future field leader. 

And they’re also fearful that other teams are going to beat them to the punch.

So you’ve got teams like the Broncos, Vikings and Raiders who need a quarterback, have taken a liking to McCarthy and will make a deal with whatever trade partner will guarantee them a position to draft who they’re looking for.

McCarthy is seen by some as a “game manager,” because he did not have to shoulder the burden of producing all the offense for the Michigan Wolverines.

But he is not without special talent; he came out of high school as the #2 quarterback prospect in the country and led the Maize and Blue to the national championship. 

He was originally expected to be around when it came time for Minnesota to pick at #11. But the next two teams – Denver and Las Vegas – may do what they can to leapfrog the Vikes.

It really comes down to whether the Arizona Cardinals or Los Angeles Chargers are going to make a deal and possibly pass up on a prime wide receiver.

Wouldn’t it be kind of ironic if Jim Harbaugh made a deal with a team so they could draft his Michigan quarterback?

Yeah, I’ll follow the crowd here. UNDER 5.5 (-135)

How many wide receivers will be selected in Round 1 of NFL draft? 

Here are the numbers:

• Under 6.5 Wide Receivers -400
• Over 6.5 Wide Receivers  +250

The wide receiver position is usually going to meet with some demand, because the NFL is a passing league. Teams like the Atlanta Falcons, who have signed a free agent quarterback (Kirk Cousins) to a huge contract, want to give him some weapons. When drafting a young quarterback, it’s important to get that kid off to a good start.

Teams who are in a position to be high enough in the first round will have a nice opportunity to grab one of three of the most heralded players in the draft. 

Marvin Harrison Jr. of Ohio State is the top-rated receiver on the list, and the expectation is that he will be taken among the first five. Malik Nabers, who worked with Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels at LSU, should not be far behind. And then there is Rome Odunze of Washington.

These guys are all top ten picks, and there is also the strong possibility that Brian Thomas, the other LSU wide receiver, will be a first-rounder.

From there, nothing can be guaranteed. Adonai Mitchell of Texas has a possibility of being a first-rounder, and the same can be said of Oregon’s Troy Franklin and Keon Coleman of Florida State. Ladd McConkey of Georgia has been mentioned in some mock drafts. Three of the four names we’ve mentioned in this paragraph would have to go in the first round for this prop to hit.

The first ten or eleven players taken in this draft are going to be on offense, so we expect that teams are going to see bargains moving down the first round when it comes to players on the defensive side of the ball. I would be looking for a run on wide receivers in the second round, which would include those names I mentioned in the last paragraph, along with Roman Wilson of Michigan, Xavier Worthy of Texas and Ricky Pearsall of Florida.

So we would take an “UNDER” here. 

Michael Penix Jr. – Over/Under Draft Position 

• Under 32.5 Position  -250
• Over 32.5 Position  +170

If there is a more polarizing figure in this draft than JJ McCarthy, it’s Michael Penix, who threw for more than 4900 yards and 36 touchdowns while finishing as the runner-up for the Heisman Trophy.

Penix has basically had two careers – one of which happened at Indiana University, and the other at the University of Washington. At Indiana he put up great numbers and earned a lot of respect for the Hoosiers, who actually crept into the top ten at one point.

The dark side of this was that Penix suffered four season-ending injuries. There was a shoulder separation, a clavicle injury and two tears of the same anterior cruciate ligament (ACL).

But he managed to stay on the field at U-Dub, leading the Huskies into the College Football Playoff and then into the championship game. Against Texas in the semifinal he put on a show, completing 29 of 38 passes for 430 yards.

Things got a lot tougher against Michigan in the title game, as he went 27 of 51 for 255 yards and two interceptions. He was a little hemmed in by the Wolverines, who stopped his ground game and didn’t allow him to throw far down the field. There just wasn’t enough time.

Washington just couldn’t stop Michigan’s rushing attack, which rambled for 303 yards and four touchdowns. And that is a reflection of the kind of team McCarthy had to work with, which impacts the evaluation many of the scouts had of him. 

The thing about Penix that you must come away with is that even though he has demonstrated himself to be injury-prone, that’s not been the case of late, and when he’s been healthy he’s been extremely good. 

He has turned one of his wide receivers, Rome Odunze, into an All-American and probable first round draft choice. He helped enable his head coach, Kalen DeBoer, to compile the kind of credentials that got him the job of replacing Nick Saban at one of the nation’s true prestige programs (Alabama).

It would not be unfair to say that if these last two seasons were the only seasons where Michael Penix Jr. played college football, he would be in the discussion to be one of the top three picks. 

Still, his injuries make him polarizing. He divides opinions. And it’s a matter of team-by-team philosophies. Some teams are more willing to deal with injury problems. Some are extremely strict about that. They will see an injury history and take a player off their board, which means they are not drafting him under any circumstances.

Penix knows all this. That’s the reason he wrote an open letter to all the general managers in the NFL. In that letter, he goes over his background, what it took him to get to this juncture, and points out that he has put over 2000 plays on tape since his last injury.

Let’s be honest – he’s going to be drafted by somebody, but in terms of the benefits of a rookie contract, there is a substantial difference between being a first-round pick or being drafted in subsequent rounds.

So it was worth it trying to make a case for himself.

For you, as the sports bettor, this proposition becomes a referendum on whether you think Penix is a first-rounder and there is a team out there willing to take a chance.

The way I’m looking at it is this – among Minnesota, Denver and Las Vegas, there is going to be a loser when it comes to being able to move up in the draft to get a top quarterback. One of them may just opt to stay put and take a guy who showed a lot of production.

So I’ll be on the UNDER, expecting Penix to go in the first round. 

What will the Kansas City Chiefs’ first pick be?

Here are the numbers:

• Wide Receiver  -120
• Offensive lineman  +130
• Cornerback  +650
• Defensive Line / Edge  +750
• Linebacker  +5000
• Safety  +5000
• Tight End +8000
• Running Back  +10000
• Quarterback  +20000

The first instinct on the part of a lot of people might be to think “wide receiver,” as that is something Patrick Mahomes lacked last season. And, of course, with the legal entanglements surrounding Rashee Rice, there may be a question as to how much he’ll be able to play.

But if you watched the Super Bowl, you saw the San Francisco pass rushers in KC’s backfield all night. The Chiefs’ offensive line is very solid “up the middle,” with center Creed Humphrey and guards Joe Thuney and Trey Smith. But the tackle position really needs to be addressed. 

Sure, wide receiver is a need, but they might be able to pick up something else on the second round to join Marquise Brown, who was brought in to stretch the field.

Offensive line should be a real priority, and at #32 they’ll find someone who can help. And maybe if they get real lucky, a JC Latham (Alabama) or Tyler Guyton (Oklahoma) might be available to them. 
So we’ll take that +130 price on the O-Lineman.