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Week 11 is the thinnest slate of the season. Six teams are on a bye and only thirteen games are played: Atlanta, Cleveland, Green Bay, the Rams, New England and Seattle all sit.
Fewer games is not the same as less to do. A short card concentrates attention: the same money chases thirteen numbers instead of sixteen, and the lines that move are the ones everybody can see moving.
NFL Week 11 at a Glance
- Thirteen games, the fewest of the season
- Six byes: Falcons, Browns, Packers, Rams, Patriots, Seahawks
- Three division games, one of them a rematch
- Six interconference games, nearly half the remaining card
The Take: The shortest card of the year
A thirteen-game week does something the schedule does not advertise: it shrinks the number of places for money to go. Concentrated action moves lines further than the underlying opinion justifies, and it moves them earlier.
Our view: on a short card, the opening number is worth more than usual and the closing number is worth less. The extra movement is liquidity, not information.
Every Game, and What Actually Decides It
Thursday, November 19 · 8:15 PM ET
Divisional
Division rematch. Both staffs already know what the other wanted to do, so this is about what they do instead. A short week cuts the install, not the legs. The simpler team usually handles it better, whatever the rest narrative says. Our view: wait for the number rather than the news.
Sunday, November 22 · 1:00 PM ET
Divisional
A division game, so it carries a head-to-head tiebreaker that will still be sitting there in January. The early window, where the schedule puts games it does not expect to argue about. Our view: the public will be on one side of this by Friday, and that is worth knowing before Sunday.
Sunday, November 22 · 1:00 PM ET
Conference
In-conference, which matters in January rather than now: it is the record that breaks ties between strangers. The Bears have had two weeks to look at this one. That edge is real and it is mostly preparation, not legs. We would take the home side’s price more seriously than the home side’s reputation.
Sunday, November 22 · 1:00 PM ET
Interconference
Interconference. Worth a win and nothing else, and any conclusion drawn from it should be priced that way. Under a roof that opens when it suits, so the forecast is a choice rather than a condition. Our read: the total tells you more about what the books expect than the side does.
Sunday, November 22 · 1:00 PM ET
Conference
A conference fixture, which is to say it counts twice: once now, once in the tiebreakers. The Buccaneers come off a bye, which buys a fortnight of preparation for one opponent. The rest is worth less than people think; the extra week of film is worth more. Our read: the line that opens is not the line that settles, and the gap is the whole edge.
Sunday, November 22 · 1:00 PM ET
Interconference
Across conferences, which usually means two unfamiliar teams and a market leaning on reputation to fill the gap. A one o’clock start, one of a crowded slate, which is where an edge is easiest to find and hardest to notice. We are interested in this one late, not early.
Sunday, November 22 · 1:00 PM ET
Interconference
A non-conference game: the standings feel it, the tiebreakers never do. First window of the day, on a board full of them. Our view: the number will move more than the matchup warrants.
Sunday, November 22 · 1:00 PM ET
Interconference
Out of conference, which is where season-long narratives get built on the least useful evidence. First window of the day, on a board full of them. Our read: this is a total to look at before it is a side.
Sunday, November 22 · 4:05 PM ET
Conference
A conference fixture with no return game, so whatever this settles, it settles once. 3 time zones west for the visitor. The body clock reads later than the scoreboard, and that is the friendlier version of this trip. We think the honest answer is that this one is close, and close games are where prices get lazy.
Sunday, November 22 · 4:25 PM ET
Divisional
Division game. The loser does not just drop one, it hands over the tiebreaker as well. A mile of altitude. It is not a story until the fourth quarter, and then it is the only story. Our view: this is the sort of game people are certain about for no good reason.
Sunday, November 22 · 4:25 PM ET
Interconference
A game between conferences: one result, no consequences beyond the column it lands in. One side here, the Eagles, has had a week off. Rested is easy to say and hard to put a number on. We would want a reason to be on the favourite here beyond the fact that they are the favourite.
Sunday, November 22 · 8:20 PM ET
Conference
Same conference, no tiebreaker, but it moves the conference record that seeds the bracket. Heading 2 zones west. Kickoff feels late to the travelling side, which is the version of jet lag nobody complains about. We would leave this alone until the injury report lands.
Monday, November 23 · 8:15 PM ET
Interconference
Across the conferences. The result counts once and then stops counting. Monday night closes the week, which makes it the one fixture with a complete picture behind it. We would rather have the points here than the opinion.
NFL Week 11 Schedule and Kickoff Times
| Date | Kickoff (ET) | Matchup | Stakes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, November 19 | 8:15 PM | Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans | Divisional |
| Sunday, November 22 | 1:00 PM | Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills | Divisional |
| Sunday, November 22 | 1:00 PM | New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears | Conference |
| Sunday, November 22 | 1:00 PM | Tennessee Titans at Dallas Cowboys | Interconference |
| Sunday, November 22 | 1:00 PM | Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions | Conference |
| Sunday, November 22 | 1:00 PM | Arizona Cardinals at Kansas City Chiefs | Interconference |
| Sunday, November 22 | 1:00 PM | Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Giants | Interconference |
| Sunday, November 22 | 1:00 PM | Baltimore Ravens at Carolina Panthers | Interconference |
| Sunday, November 22 | 4:05 PM | New York Jets at Los Angeles Chargers | Conference |
| Sunday, November 22 | 4:25 PM | Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos | Divisional |
| Sunday, November 22 | 4:25 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles | Interconference |
| Sunday, November 22 | 8:20 PM | Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers | Conference |
| Monday, November 23 | 8:15 PM | Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Commanders | Interconference |
When the Week 11 Numbers Land
Spreads, totals and moneylines go up on each game’s own page as soon as the books open the market, in practice about three days out, which for this week means the early part of the week beginning November 19. Our free pick on every game follows on the same schedule, and this page is updated with it. Every live NFL prediction is here, in kickoff order, moving as the numbers move.
NFL Week 11 Betting FAQs
Which teams have a bye in NFL Week 11?
Atlanta, Cleveland, Green Bay, the Los Angeles Rams, New England and Seattle, six teams, the largest bye group of the season.
How many games are in NFL Week 11?
Thirteen, the smallest slate of the 2026 season.
Does a short slate change how lines move?
That is our reading rather than a measured fact: fewer games means the same money chasing fewer numbers. Treat it as a reason to look early, not as a guarantee.
