CFB
SpreadTotalMoneyARST+6.5U 47.5+215UL-6.5O 47.5-265
CFB · Saturday 3 October
Arkansas State at Louisiana Final Score: Louisiana Win 23-20
Final: Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns 23, Arkansas State Red Wolves 20, Saturday 3 October at Our Lady of Lourdes Stadium.
Our call was no bet. Before the game this page said: “Our number has Louisiana by 5.7, and the line is 6.5. No bet on the side.”
What decided it
Louisiana won the first quarter by 7. Louisiana turned the ball over 1 time to Arkansas State’s 0, and gained 435 yards to 293.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas State Red Wolves | 0 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
| Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns | 7 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 23 |
The last DraftKings line ESPN holds for the game is UL -4.5, with a total of 49.5. Louisiana did not cover as the favourite. The 43 points went under the total.
What comes next
Arkansas State plays next against the UL Monroe Warhawks on Saturday 7 November. Louisiana plays next against the South Alabama Jaguars on Saturday 7 November.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Arkansas State at Louisiana Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.
Our number has Louisiana by 5.7, and the line is 6.5. No bet on the side.
Louisiana opened as a 4-point favorite over Arkansas State at DraftKings and is 6.5 now. Our number is Louisiana by 5.7. The gap is 0.8 points, and the threshold for a bet here is 3. The market has moved to where we are.
How the number is built
The method is one clause: our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together.
Louisiana is 4-2 at home against FBS teams over that span, +2 points across 6 games, 0.3 a game. Arkansas State is 3-5 on the road against FBS teams, -88 across 8 games, -11.0 a game. The difference is 11.3 points. Half of it is 5.7.
Six and eight games is the whole sample. One of Louisiana’s home games is from 2026, and two of Arkansas State’s road games are.
Close at home, far from home
Louisiana’s home games against FBS teams have been tight. Its four wins were by 3, 3, 3 and 7: 54-51 over Marshall, 42-39 over Texas State, 30-27 over UL Monroe and 21-14 over UAB on 19 September. The two losses were 14-12 to Rice and 22-10 to Southern Miss.
Arkansas State’s road number carries one large game. It lost 56-14 at Arkansas in September 2025. Take that game out and the other seven average -6.6, which would put our number near 3.5 and make Arkansas State the side. It stays in, because the method counts every game the same.
Its three road wins were by 1, 13 and 1: 15-14 at South Alabama, 23-10 at Troy, 30-29 at App State. This season it lost 42-24 at Memphis and 31-7 at TCU.
2026 so far
Arkansas State is 2-2. It beat West Georgia 52-7, a team outside the FBS, and Kennesaw State 17-14 on 26 September. Against its three FBS opponents it has scored 16.0 a game and allowed 29.0.
Louisiana is 3-1. It beat Lamar 38-7, a team outside the FBS, lost 49-30 at USC, beat UAB 21-14 and won 34-7 at Charlotte on 26 September. Against FBS teams it has scored 28.3 a game and allowed 23.3. This is the Sun Belt opener for both teams.
Last season
Arkansas State went 7-6 in 2025, scoring 25.2 a game and allowing 27.4, and won its bowl game 34-28 over Missouri State on 18 December. Louisiana went 6-7, scoring 26.0 and allowing 29.2, and lost its bowl game 20-13 to Delaware on 17 December.
The teams met on 20 November 2025 at Arkansas State. Louisiana won 34-30.
The price
Louisiana opened at -4 and is -6.5 now, read 28 September 2026 at 17:02 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. That is a 2.5-point move toward Louisiana. Louisiana’s side is priced at -115 and Arkansas State’s at -105.
The moneyline has Louisiana at -265 and Arkansas State at +215, from -175 and +145 at the open. With the margin removed, that prices Louisiana to win 69.6% of the time. ESPN’s FPI is higher on Louisiana, at 75.5%.
At the open, our number and the line were 1.7 points apart. The move has closed most of that.
Pick: no bet
No bet on the side. Our number is Louisiana by 5.7, the line is 6.5, and 0.8 points is well short of the 3-point threshold.
The sample is 14 games, split 6 and 8.
What changes it
The line, in either direction. At Louisiana -2.5 the gap is 3.2 and Louisiana becomes the bet. At Arkansas State +9 the gap is 3.3 and Arkansas State becomes the bet; at +8.5 it is 2.8, still a pass.
Availability also matters, and this page does not state it. Check the injury report before you bet.
The total
The total opened at 49.5 and is 47.5 now, over -105 and under -115.
Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, bowls included, both teams’ games went over 47.5 in 9 of 15. This season points the other way. Arkansas State’s three games against FBS teams produced 66, 38 and 31 points. Louisiana’s produced 79, 35 and 41. That is 2 of 6 over.
Pass on the total at 47.5. The longer sample and this season disagree.
Arkansas State at Louisiana, Saturday 3 October, 8:00 PM ET, Our Lady of Lourdes Stadium, Lafayette. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 28 September 2026, 17:02 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 28 September 2026. Rankings: AP Poll, Week 5, 2026. Nothing here states who is available.