CFB
SpreadTotalMoneyARMY-1.5U 47.5-125LT+1.5O 47.5+105
CFB · Saturday 3 October
Army at Louisiana Tech Final Score: Louisiana Tech Win 31-29
Final: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 31, Army Black Knights 29, Saturday 3 October at Joe Aillet Stadium.
Our call won. Before the game this page said: “Our number has Louisiana Tech by 9. At +2.5, take Louisiana Tech.” Louisiana Tech +2.5 won: Louisiana Tech won by 2.
What decided it
Louisiana Tech won the second quarter by 7. Louisiana Tech turned the ball over 0 times to Army’s 1, and gained 503 yards to 421.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Army Black Knights | 7 | 0 | 8 | 14 | 29 |
| Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | 7 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 31 |
The last DraftKings line ESPN holds for the game is LT -1.5, with a total of 46.5. Louisiana Tech covered as the favourite. The 60 points went over the total.
What comes next
Army plays next at the Memphis Tigers on Saturday 31 October. Louisiana Tech plays next at the South Alabama Jaguars on Saturday 31 October.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Army at Louisiana Tech Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.
Our number has Louisiana Tech by 9. At +2.5, take Louisiana Tech.
Army opened as a 3.5-point favorite at Louisiana Tech at DraftKings and is 2.5 now. Our number has the home team winning by 9.0. The gap is 11.5 points, and the threshold for a bet here is 3. It comes with a large caveat about where the home number was earned.
How the number is built
The method is one clause: our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together.
Louisiana Tech is 4-1 at home against FBS teams over that span, +91 points across 5 games, 18.2 a game. Army is 5-2 on the road against FBS teams, +2 across 7 games, 0.3 a game. The difference is 17.9 points. Half of it is 9.0.
All five of Louisiana Tech’s home games come from 2025. Its only home game this season was an 80-6 win over Northwestern State, a team outside the FBS, and the method leaves that out. One of Army’s seven road games is from 2026.
Louisiana Tech at home
The home wins in 2025 were large: 49-14 over New Mexico State, 30-20 over Southern Miss, 55-14 over Sam Houston and 34-28 over Liberty. The one loss was 28-27 to Western Kentucky. Louisiana Tech went 5-1 at home in 2025, counting a 24-0 win over SE Louisiana, a team outside the FBS.
Army’s road games are the opposite shape: close, and mostly won. It won 24-21 at Kansas State, 31-13 at UAB, 20-17 at Air Force, 27-24 at UTSA and 21-17 at Temple on 25 September. It lost 28-6 at East Carolina and 24-17 at Tulane. Four of the five road wins were by 4 points or fewer.
That is why the average is 0.3. Army wins on the road, by a field goal or so, and the two losses cancel the margins out.
2026 so far
Army is 2-1 and 1-1 in the American. It beat Bryant 59-3, a team outside the FBS, lost 28-24 to South Florida and won 21-17 at Temple. Against its two FBS opponents it has scored and allowed 22.5 a game.
Louisiana Tech is 1-2. After the 80-6 opener it lost 45-14 at LSU and 36-19 at Baylor. Against those two FBS teams it has scored 16.5 a game and allowed 40.5. This season’s Louisiana Tech has not yet looked like the team in the home sample, though both losses came on the road.
Last season
Army went 7-6 in 2025, scoring 23.8 a game and allowing 21.6. It lost 17-16 to Navy at a neutral site on 13 December and beat UConn 41-16 in its bowl game on 27 December.
Louisiana Tech went 8-5, scoring 27.3 and allowing 20.8, and won its bowl game 23-14 over Coastal Carolina on 30 December. The two teams did not meet in 2025.
The price
Army opened at -3.5 and is -2.5 now, read 28 September 2026 at 17:02 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. That is a 1-point move toward Louisiana Tech. Louisiana Tech’s side is priced at -115 and Army’s at -105.
The moneyline has Army at -130 and Louisiana Tech at +110, from -175 and +145 at the open. With the margin removed, that prices Army to win 54.3% of the time. ESPN’s FPI makes it closer still, Army 51% and Louisiana Tech 49%.
The market and FPI both call this about even. Our number calls it a home win by 9.
Pick: Louisiana Tech +2.5
Louisiana Tech +2.5 at -115. The gap is 11.5 points against a 3-point threshold.
It rests on 12 games, split 5 and 7, and the Louisiana Tech half is entirely last season’s. Five games is enough to clear the method’s 4-game minimum and not much more.
What changes it
A large line move. The bet holds even with Louisiana Tech as a favorite, up to -5.5, where the gap is 3.5. At -6 the gap is 2.96, and the call becomes a pass.
Availability is the other thing, and this page does not state it. Check the injury report before you bet.
The total
The total opened at 44.5 and is 46.5 now, both sides at -110.
Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, bowls included, Army’s games went over 46.5 in 5 of 14 and Louisiana Tech’s in 9 of 14. Army’s two FBS games this season produced 52 and 38 points. Louisiana Tech’s produced 59 and 55.
Pass on the total at 46.5. The two samples point in opposite directions.
Army at Louisiana Tech, Saturday 3 October, 7:30 PM ET, Joe Aillet Stadium, Ruston. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 28 September 2026, 17:02 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 28 September 2026. Rankings: AP Poll, Week 5, 2026. Nothing here states who is available.