CFB
SpreadTotalMoneyBAY+3.5U 49.5+154ASU-3.5O 49.5-185
CFB · Saturday 3 October
Baylor at Arizona State Final Score: Baylor Win 55-19
Final: Baylor Bears 55, Arizona State Sun Devils 19, Saturday 3 October at Mountain America Stadium.
Our call was no bet. Before the game this page said: “Our number has Arizona State by 3.3, and the line is 4. No bet on the side.”
What decided it
Baylor won the third quarter by 18. Baylor turned the ball over 0 times to Arizona State’s 3, and gained 564 yards to 409.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baylor Bears | 14 | 10 | 21 | 10 | 55 |
| Arizona State Sun Devils | 3 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 19 |
The last DraftKings line ESPN holds for the game is ASU -3.5, with a total of 49.5. Arizona State did not cover as the favourite. The 74 points went over the total.
What comes next
Baylor plays next at the UCF Knights on Friday 30 October. Arizona State plays next at the BYU Cougars on Saturday 31 October.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Baylor at Arizona State Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.
Our number has Arizona State by 3.3, and the line is 4. No bet on the side.
Arizona State opened as a 3.5-point favorite over Baylor at DraftKings and is 4 now. Our number is Arizona State by 3.3. The gap is 0.7 points, and the threshold for a bet here is 3. The line and our number are close enough that there is nothing to take.
How the number is built
The method is one clause: our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together.
Arizona State is 4-2 at home against FBS teams over that span, +4 points across 6 games, 0.7 a game. Baylor is 2-3 on the road against FBS teams, -30 across 5 games, -6.0 a game. The difference is 6.7 points. Half of it is 3.3.
Every one of those 11 games is from 2025. Arizona State’s only home game this season was a 70-7 win over Morgan State, a team outside the FBS. Baylor has not played a true road game this season. So this number describes last season’s teams, and says little about this one.
Two thin records
Arizona State’s home wins against FBS teams were mostly narrow: 27-24 over TCU, 26-22 over Texas Tech and 25-23 over West Virginia, with one larger win, 34-15 over Texas State. The losses were 24-16 to Houston and 23-7 to Arizona.
Baylor’s road games were high-scoring and swung both ways. It won 48-45 at SMU and 45-27 at Oklahoma State, then lost 42-36 at TCU, 41-20 at Cincinnati and 41-17 at Arizona. Those last two carry most of the -6.0.
The teams met on 20 September 2025 at Baylor, and Arizona State won 27-24. That game was a Baylor home game, so it sits in neither sample above.
2026 so far
Baylor is 3-1 and 1-0 in the Big 12. It lost 17-16 to Auburn at a neutral site, then beat Prairie View A&M 44-3, a team outside the FBS, Louisiana Tech 36-19 and Colorado 23-13 on 26 September. Against its three FBS opponents it has scored 25.0 a game and allowed 16.3.
Arizona State is 2-1 and 1-0 in the Big 12. After the Morgan State opener it lost 48-20 at Texas A&M, then beat Kansas 24-17 at a neutral site on 19 September. Against its two FBS opponents it has scored 22.0 a game and allowed 32.5.
Last season
Baylor went 5-7 in 2025, scoring 31.1 a game and allowing 32.6. Arizona State went 8-5, scoring 25.8 and allowing 24.5, and lost its bowl game 42-39 to Duke on 31 December.
By this season’s FBS results Baylor looks the stronger team: +8.7 a game against Arizona State’s -10.5, over three games and two. Those samples prove little, and the method does not use them.
The price
Arizona State opened at -3.5 and is -4 now, read 28 September 2026 at 17:02 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. That is half a point toward Arizona State. Both sides of the spread are priced at -110.
The moneyline has Arizona State at -192 and Baylor at +160, from -180 and +150 at the open. With the margin removed, that prices Arizona State to win 63.1% of the time. ESPN’s FPI disagrees and has Baylor at 52.4%.
So the market favors the home team, FPI favors the visitor, and our number sits 0.7 points from the market.
Pick: no bet
No bet on the side. Our number is Arizona State by 3.3, the line is 4, and 0.7 points is well short of the 3-point threshold.
The sample is 11 games, split 6 and 5, all from last season.
What changes it
The line, and it would take a big move. At a pick’em the gap is 3.3 and Arizona State becomes the bet. At Baylor +6.5 the gap is 3.2 and Baylor becomes the bet; at +6 it is 2.7, still a pass.
Availability also matters, and this page does not state it. Check the injury report before you bet.
The total
The total opened at 51.5 and is 50.5 now, over -115 and under -105.
Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, bowl included, Baylor’s games went over 50.5 in 11 of 14 and Arizona State’s in 6 of 14. This season the numbers are lower: Baylor’s three FBS games produced 33, 55 and 36 points, and Arizona State’s two produced 68 and 41.
Pass on the total at 50.5. The two teams pull in opposite directions.
Baylor at Arizona State, Saturday 3 October, 10:30 PM ET, Mountain America Stadium, Tempe. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 28 September 2026, 17:02 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 28 September 2026. Rankings: AP Poll, Week 5, 2026. Nothing here states who is available.