CFB
SpreadTotalMoneyBYU-6.5U 47.5-230TCU+6.5O 47.5+190
CFB · Saturday 3 October
BYU at TCU Final Score: BYU Win 17-10
Final: BYU Cougars 17, TCU Horned Frogs 10, Saturday 3 October at Amon G. Carter Stadium.
Our call lost. Before the game this page said: “Our number has TCU by 2.5. At +6.5, take TCU.” TCU +6.5 lost: TCU lost by 7.
What decided it
BYU won the fourth quarter by 4. BYU turned the ball over 0 times to TCU’s 1, and gained 216 yards to 259.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BYU Cougars | 0 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 17 |
| TCU Horned Frogs | 0 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
The last DraftKings line ESPN holds for the game is BYU -5.5, with a total of 48.5. BYU covered as the favourite. The 27 points went under the total.
What comes next
BYU plays next against the Arizona State Sun Devils on Saturday 31 October. TCU plays next against the Kansas Jayhawks on Saturday 31 October.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “BYU at TCU Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.
Our number has TCU by 2.5. At +6.5, take TCU.
No. 10 BYU opened as a 5.5-point favorite at TCU at DraftKings and is 6.5 now. Our number has the home team winning by 2.5. The gap is 9.0 points, and the threshold for a bet here is 3.
How the number is built
The method is one clause: our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together.
TCU is 5-1 at home against FBS teams over that span, +74 points across 6 games, 12.3 a game. BYU is 6-1 on the road against FBS teams, +52 across 7 games, 7.4 a game. The difference is 4.9 points. Half of it is 2.5.
Both numbers are good ones. The method has TCU slightly ahead because TCU’s home margins are larger than BYU’s road margins. One game in each sample comes from 2026.
Two strong records
TCU’s one home loss against an FBS team in that span was 20-17 to Iowa State. The wins were 35-24 over SMU, 35-21 over Colorado, 42-36 over Baylor, 45-23 over Cincinnati and 31-7 over Arkansas State on 19 September.
BYU won 6 of 7 on the road, and 4 of those wins were by 7 or more: 34-13 at East Carolina, 41-27 at Iowa State, 26-14 at Cincinnati and 41-23 at Colorado State on 19 September. The other two were 24-21 at Colorado and 33-27 at Arizona. The loss was 29-7 at Texas Tech.
So BYU would have covered 6.5 in 4 of its 7 road games. TCU would have covered +6.5 in all 6 of its home games.
The teams met on 15 November 2025 at BYU, and BYU won 44-13. That was a BYU home game, so it sits in neither sample above. It is the one result that argues hardest against the pick.
2026 so far
BYU is 3-0 and 1-0 in the Big 12. It beat Utah Tech 63-7, a team outside the FBS, beat Arizona 28-17 and won at Colorado State. Against its two FBS opponents it has scored 34.5 a game and allowed 20.0.
TCU is 2-2 and 0-1 in the Big 12. It lost 15-10 to North Carolina at a neutral site on 29 August, beat Grambling 63-7, a team outside the FBS, beat Arkansas State, and lost 21-13 at UCF on 26 September. Against its three FBS opponents it has scored 18.0 a game and allowed 14.3.
Last season
BYU went 12-2 in 2025, scoring 31.4 a game and allowing 19.1. It lost 34-7 to Texas Tech at a neutral site on 6 December and beat Georgia Tech 25-21 in its bowl game on 27 December.
TCU went 9-4, scoring 30.7 and allowing 25.3, and beat USC 30-27 in its bowl game on 30 December. TCU went 5-1 at home in 2025.
The price
BYU opened at -5.5 and is -6.5 now, read 28 September 2026 at 17:02 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. That is a 1-point move toward BYU. BYU’s side is priced at -112 and TCU’s at -108.
The moneyline has BYU at -245 and TCU at +200, from -198 and +164 at the open. With the margin removed, that prices BYU to win 68.1% of the time. ESPN’s FPI has BYU at 70.5%.
The market, FPI and last November’s result all favor BYU. Our number has TCU winning, because it counts only TCU’s home games and BYU’s road games.
Pick: TCU +6.5
TCU +6.5 at -108. The gap is 9.0 points against a 3-point threshold.
It rests on 13 games, split 6 and 7. TCU’s 18.0 points a game against FBS teams this season is the soft spot, over three games.
What changes it
The line. The bet stands down to TCU +1, where the gap is 3.5. At a pick’em it is 2.5, and the call becomes a pass. Every move toward BYU makes the gap larger.
Availability is the other thing, and this page does not state it. Check the injury report before you bet.
The total
The total opened at 52.5 and is 48.5 now, over -115 and under -105. That is a 4-point drop.
Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, bowls included, BYU’s games went over 48.5 in 6 of 15 and TCU’s in 9 of 15. This season BYU’s two FBS games produced 45 and 64 points. TCU’s three produced 25, 38 and 34.
Pass on the total at 48.5. The longer samples point opposite ways, and this season’s games disagree with both.
BYU at TCU, Saturday 3 October, 7:00 PM ET, Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 28 September 2026, 17:02 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 28 September 2026. Rankings: AP Poll, Week 5, 2026. Nothing here states who is available.