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No bet. Long Island University has three road games against FBS teams, too few for our number to price this one.
Florida International is a 35.5-point favourite over Long Island University on DraftKings, the same number it opened at. The method needs at least 4 games on each side before it will price a game, and Long Island University has 3. So the method makes no bet here.
How the number is built
The method is one clause: our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together.
Florida International is 4-2 at home against FBS teams over that span, losing by 0.8 points a game across 6 games. Long Island University is 1-2 on the road against FBS teams, losing by 31.7 a game across 3 games. The difference is 30.9 points, and half of it, rounded, would be 15.5. With 3 games on the road side, that figure is arithmetic, not a price.
What the method has to go on
Long Island University is not an FBS team. It has played three FBS opponents in 2025 and 2026, all on the road: a 55-0 loss at Florida, a 28-23 win at Eastern Michigan, and a 51-6 loss at Kansas on 4 September. Three games prove little, and the method has almost nothing to go on for the visitor.
The home side is thin in a different way. Florida International beat Florida Atlantic 38-28, Liberty 34-27, Jacksonville State 27-21 and Buffalo 33-20 at home, and lost 38-16 to Delaware and 45-26 to Kennesaw State. Its largest home win against an FBS team in that span, in six tries, was 13 points. The spread asks for 36.
2026 so far
Florida International is 1-2, and all three games were against FBS teams. It lost 19-9 at South Florida, beat Buffalo 33-20 at home, and lost 16-10 at Florida Atlantic on 19 September. It has scored 17.3 points a game.
Long Island University is 0-4. It lost 42-21 at North Dakota, 51-6 at Kansas, 35-13 to UAlbany and 20-16 to Villanova. Only the Kansas game is against an FBS team, so the other three are not in our number.
This is a non-conference game; Florida International plays in Conference USA.
Last season
Florida International went 7-6 in 2025 and lost by 1.5 points a game, and finished with a 57-20 loss to UTSA on 26 December at a neutral site. Long Island University went 6-6 and lost by 2.4 a game, 1-1 against FBS teams.
The two teams did not meet in 2025 or 2026.
The price
Florida International is -35.5 and was -35.5 at the open, read 24 September 2026 at 04:29 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. Both sides of the spread are priced at -110.
No moneyline was posted for this game at that read. ESPN’s FPI gives Florida International a 96.4% chance to win. Three road games are not enough to argue with that number.
Pick: no bet
No bet on the spread. Long Island University has 3 road games against FBS teams in 2025 and 2026, and Florida International has 6 home games against them. One sample holds fewer than 4 games, so the method has too little to price the game, whatever the line.
The arithmetic above gives Florida International by 15.5, against a spread of 35.5. It is shown so the method can be checked. It is not a pick.
What changes it
More FBS games for Long Island University. Until its road sample reaches 4 games, the method makes no bet on Long Island University, at any line.
Availability is the other thing, and this page does not state it. Check the injury report before you look at this game.
The total
The total is 50.5 and was 50.5 at the open, over and under both -110, as read at DraftKings.
Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Florida International’s games went over 50.5 in 9 of 15. Long Island University’s three FBS games all went over, with 55, 51 and 57 points, and it scored 34 of those 163. Florida International’s three games this season produced 28, 53 and 26.
Pass on the total at 50.5. Three games say little about Long Island University, and 9 of 15 is close to even.
Long Island University at Florida International, Saturday 26 September, 6:00 PM ET, Pitbull Stadium, Miami. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 September 2026, 04:29 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 23-24 September 2026. Neither team is ranked in the AP Poll, Week 4, 2026. Nothing here states who is available.
