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Iowa State vs Arizona Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Grant WellerUpdated 23 Oct 2026

Our number is Arizona by 9.9. The line is 10.5. No bet.

No. 25 Arizona is a 10.5-point favorite over Iowa State at DraftKings, read 24 October 2026 at 00:16 UTC. Arizona -10.5 is priced at -112 and Iowa State +10.5 at -108. Our number is Arizona by 9.9, a gap of 0.6 points on Iowa State’s side. The threshold for a bet is 3 points, so this game is a pass.

The moneyline is Arizona -345 and Iowa State +275. A book builds in a margin: the extra that makes the two prices add to more than 100%, where a fair pair adds to exactly 100. With the margin removed, the market gives Arizona a 74.4% chance to win and Iowa State 25.6%. ESPN’s FPI is close to that, at 75.6% and 24.4%.

How 9.9 is reached

The method takes two averages, both against FBS teams only, over 2025 and 2026 together. The first is the home team’s average margin at home. The second is the visitor’s average margin on the road. Our number is half the difference between them. Bowl and playoff games are played at neutral sites, so they are left out. A side is a bet when our number and the spread are at least 3 points apart. There is no bet when either sample has fewer than 4 games.

Arizona is 7-1 at home against FBS teams over that span, winning by 17.8 points a game across 8 games. Iowa State is 3-4 on the road against FBS teams, losing by 2.0 a game across 7 games. Half the difference gives Arizona by 9.9.

Moneyline implies Iowa State 25.6 percent, Arizona 74.4 percentChance to win the game, as pricedIowa State 25.6%Arizona 74.4%From DraftKings's moneylines, Iowa State +275 and Arizona -345, margin removed.
Source: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-24 00:16 UTC.

Both samples clear the 4-game minimum. Against a 10.5 line, the 0.6 gap is a fifth of what the rule asks for. The market and the method agree to within a point.

This season so far

None of this is in our number except Arizona’s home games and Iowa State’s road games against FBS teams. Arizona is 5-1, 2-1 in the Big 12, 3-0 at home, and has won four straight. It scores 35.7 points a game and allows 19.0. Against the five FBS teams it has played, its margin is 14.4 a game. Its one loss was 28-17 at BYU on 12 September. Most recently it won 52-31 at West Virginia on 10 October.

Iowa State is 3-3 and 1-2 in the Big 12, and it lost its last game. It scores 29.7 and allows 21.7. Against FBS teams it is 2-3 with a margin of 4.0 a game. Its last game was a 24-10 loss at BYU on 9 October.

2026 point margin in every game, Arizona and Iowa State2026: point margin in every game so farArizona5-1, +16.7 a game+28-11+25+10+27+21Iowa State3-3, +8.0 a game+28-3+48-14+3-14Coloured bars are wins, dark grey losses, light grey games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 23 October 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 11 October pull.

The two teams have two FBS opponents in common this season. Arizona lost at BYU by 11 and won at West Virginia by 21. Iowa State lost at BYU by 14 and beat West Virginia 45-42 at home. That comparison is six games, and it proves nothing on its own.

Arizona at home, Iowa State on the road

Arizona’s 2026 home games against FBS teams were wins of 42-17 over Northern Illinois on 19 September and 34-7 over Cincinnati on 3 October. Its opener, 35-7 over Northern Arizona, is outside the FBS and outside the method. In 2025 Arizona went 6-1 at home.

Iowa State’s 2026 road games are both losses: 16-13 at Iowa on 12 September and 24-10 at BYU on 9 October. The Iowa loss was by 3 points. In 2025 Iowa State went 3-2 on the road.

The method leaves out the other halves. Arizona is 2-1 on the road this season, with wins at Washington State, 34-24, and West Virginia. Iowa State’s home record is 3-1, with wins of 55-7 over Bowling Green and 45-42 over West Virginia and a 31-17 loss to Utah. Its 38-10 win over Southeast Missouri State is outside the FBS.

Last season and the meeting

Arizona went 9-4 in 2025, 8-4 against FBS teams, with an average margin of 12.2. It lost 24-19 to SMU on 2 January 2026 at a neutral site, a game the method leaves out. Iowa State went 8-4, 7-4 against FBS teams, at 7.2 a game, and played no postseason game.

2025 point margin in every game, Arizona and Iowa State2025: point margin in every game, bowls and playoffs includedArizona9-4, +12.2 a game+34+45+6-25+28-6-3+35+4+6+24+16-5Iowa State8-4, +7.2 a game+3+48+3+8+25-8-7-14-5+3+24+7Oldest game on the left. Light grey bars are games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 23 October 2026.

The teams met once in that span. Iowa State won 39-14 on 27 September 2025. It was an Iowa State home game, so it sits in neither half of the method and is not in our number.

Pick: No bet

No bet on Iowa State +10.5. The gap is 0.6 points against a 3-point threshold.

The price is Iowa State +10.5 at -108, Arizona -10.5 at -112, at DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 October 2026 at 00:16 UTC. Arizona opened at -10. At 10.5 the market sits 0.6 points from a number built on 15 games, 8 and 7. A gap that size is within the noise of samples this small.

Arizona opened -10 and is -10.5 nowArizona's line, from the open to nowpickopen -10now -10.5Negative numbers mean Arizona is giving points. The line has moved 0.5 points toward Arizona.
Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-24 00:16 UTC.

What kills the bet

There is no bet to kill. The line would make one. Iowa State becomes a bet at +12.9 or better. Arizona becomes a bet at -6.9 or better. Between those two numbers the call stays no bet.

The injury list on ESPN’s game page, read 24 October 2026 at 00:16 UTC, carries no entries. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total

The total is 51.5, up from 50.5 at the open. The over is -102 and the under -108’s partner at -118.

Arizona’s games against FBS teams in 2025 and 2026 went over in 10 of 17. Iowa State’s went over in 6 of 16. This season Arizona’s five FBS games produced 45, 59, 58, 41 and 83 points. Iowa State’s produced 29, 62, 48, 87 and 34.

Game totals for Arizona and Iowa State against 51.5Total points in every game against FBS teams, 2025 and 2026, against this game's 51.5203040506070809051.5Arizona10 of 17 over 51.5Iowa State6 of 16 over 51.5Each dot is one game against an FBS team. Dots stack where games had the same total.
Source: ESPN results, read 23 October 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 11 October pull. The line: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-24 00:16 UTC.

No bet on the total at 51.5. The method stakes the spread only, and these figures are a count, not a number. The two teams’ counts point in opposite directions, 10 of 17 against 6 of 16.

Iowa State at Arizona, Saturday 24 October, 7:30 PM ET, Casino Del Sol Stadium, Tucson. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 October 2026, 00:16 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025 and 2026 seasons, checked against Nucleus. Rankings: AP Poll, Week 8, 2026. Injuries: ESPN game page, read 24 October 2026, 00:16 UTC.