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Kansas State vs Arizona State Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Grant WellerUpdated 23 Oct 2026

Our number has Kansas State by 2.3. The line is 2.5. No bet.

Kansas State at Arizona State kicks off Saturday 24 October at 3:45 PM ET at Mountain America Stadium in Tempe, a Big 12 game between two unranked teams in the AP Poll, Week 8. DraftKings has Kansas State -2.5 at -112 and Arizona State +2.5 at -108. Our number is Arizona State +2.3, a gap of 0.2 points toward Arizona State. The threshold for a bet is 3 points, so this is a pass.

The prices and what they say

The spread opened at Arizona State +3 and is +2.5 now, read 24 October 2026 at 00:16 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN.

Arizona State opened +3 and is +2.5 nowArizona State's line, from the open to nowpickopen +3now +2.5Negative numbers mean Arizona State is giving points. The line has moved 0.5 points toward Arizona State.
Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-24 00:16 UTC.

On the moneyline Kansas State is -142 and Arizona State +120. A book builds in a margin, the extra that makes a pair of prices add to more than 100%. With it removed, the market gives Kansas State a 56.3% chance to win and Arizona State 43.7%. ESPN’s FPI is more confident in the visitor: Kansas State 68%, Arizona State 32%. The method stakes the spread, so the moneyline is context only.

How Arizona State +2.3 is reached

Our home margin is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road. It uses games against FBS teams only, across 2025 and 2026 together. Bowl and playoff games are neutral and stay out.

Arizona State is 5-3 at home against FBS teams over that span, with an average margin of -1.8 points. Kansas State is 2-4 on the road against FBS teams, with an average margin of +2.8. Half the difference between -1.8 and +2.8 is -2.3: Kansas State by 2.3, or Arizona State +2.3 as a spread.

Moneyline implies Kansas State 56.3 percent, Arizona State 43.7 percentChance to win the game, as pricedKansas State 56.3%Arizona State 43.7%From DraftKings's moneylines, Kansas State -142 and Arizona State +120, margin removed.
Source: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-24 00:16 UTC.

The base is 14 games, 8 for Arizona State and 6 for Kansas State. Both clear the 4-game minimum the rule sets. The market sits at 2.5, and 0.2 points is far below the 3 the rule needs.

Arizona State at home, Kansas State on the road

Two of Arizona State’s eight home games in the sample come from this season. It lost 55-19 to Baylor on 3 October and beat Hawai’i 30-12 on 10 October. The rest are from 2025, when it went 5-2 at home overall. A home margin of -1.8 from a 5-3 record means the losses were large and the wins were not.

Kansas State’s road half runs the other way. A 2-4 record with a margin of +2.8 says the four losses were close and the two wins were not. Only one of the six is from this season: a 31-26 loss at Cincinnati on 26 September. The road half of the number is mostly last season’s Kansas State, which went 2-3 on the road in 2025.

The method leaves out Arizona State’s road games, its neutral-site win over Kansas, and every Kansas State home game. That last cut matters here. Kansas State is 4-1 at home this season, and that record is outside our number.

This season so far

Arizona State is 3-3, 1-2 in the Big 12, and on a one-game losing streak. Against FBS teams it is 2-3 with a margin of -13.4 points a game. Its three losses: 48-20 at Texas A&M on 12 September, 55-19 at home to Baylor and 53-25 at Texas Tech on 17 October. Its wins over FBS teams were 24-17 over Kansas at a neutral site and 30-12 over Hawai’i. It also beat Morgan State 70-7, a team outside the FBS.

2026 point margin in every game, Arizona State and Kansas State2026: point margin in every game so farArizona State3-3, -0.7 a game+63-28+7-36+18-28Kansas State4-2, +15.5 a game+68+27+11-5-19+11Coloured bars are wins, dark grey losses, light grey games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 23 October 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 11 October pull.

Kansas State is 4-2, 1-2 in the Big 12, and won its last game 35-24 over Kansas. Against FBS teams it is 3-2 with a margin of +5.0 a game. It beat Washington State 34-7 and Tulane 31-20 at home, lost 31-26 at Cincinnati and 35-16 at home to Houston. Its 71-3 win over Nicholls came against a team outside the FBS.

This season’s numbers lean toward Kansas State more than the spread does. They sit outside the method. On two seasons, the spread is close to right.

Last season and the meeting

Arizona State went 8-5 in 2025, 7-5 against FBS teams, scoring 25.8 points a game and allowing 24.5, a margin of +1.3. It lost 42-39 to Duke at a neutral site on 31 December 2025. Kansas State went 6-6, 5-6 against FBS teams, scoring 29.4 and allowing 26.7, a margin of +2.8, with no postseason game.

2025 point margin in every game, Arizona State and Kansas State2025: point margin in every game, bowls and playoffs includedArizona State8-5, +1.3 a game+19-4+19+3+3-32+4-8+5+2+25-16-3Kansas State6-6, +2.8 a game-3+3-3-6+14-1+13+25-23+8-4+10Oldest game on the left. Light grey bars are games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 23 October 2026.

The two teams did not meet in 2025 or 2026, so there is no meeting inside or outside our number.

Pick: No bet

No bet. Our number is Arizona State +2.3 and the line is Arizona State +2.5, a 0.2-point gap against a 3-point threshold. Prices: Kansas State -2.5 at -112, Arizona State +2.5 at -108, DraftKings, read 24 October 2026 at 00:16 UTC. The open was Arizona State +3.

The market and our method agree to within a quarter of a point. A price that close to our number holds no edge to stake.

What kills the bet

Here, what would make one. Arizona State becomes a bet at +5.3 or better. Kansas State becomes a bet only if it is getting points, at +0.7 or better. Both are a long way from 2.5.

Nothing here states who is available. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total

The total is 55.5, down from 56.5 at the open. The over is -108 and the under -112, same book and read time.

Game totals for Arizona State and Kansas State against 55.5Total points in every game against FBS teams, 2025 and 2026, against this game's 55.5203040506070809010055.5Arizona State5 of 17 over 55.5Kansas State7 of 16 over 55.5Each dot is one game against an FBS team. Dots stack where games had the same total.
Source: ESPN results, read 23 October 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 11 October pull. The line: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-24 00:16 UTC.

Across 2025 and 2026, Arizona State’s games against FBS teams went over 55.5 in 5 of 17, and Kansas State’s in 7 of 16. This season Arizona State’s five FBS games produced 68, 41, 74, 42 and 78 points. Kansas State’s produced 41, 51, 57, 51 and 59.

Pass on the total. Our method stakes the spread only, and these are counts, not a number.

Kansas State at Arizona State, Saturday 24 October, 3:45 PM ET, Mountain America Stadium, Tempe. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 October 2026, 00:16 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025 and 2026 seasons, checked against Nucleus. Rankings: AP Poll, Week 8, 2026. Injuries: ESPN game page, read 24 October 2026, 00:16 UTC. Nothing here states who is available.