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Kansas State vs Colorado Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Grant WellerUpdated 29 Oct 2026

Our number has Kansas State by 3. At +1.5, take Kansas State.

Colorado is a 1.5-point favorite over Kansas State at DraftKings, read 30 October 2026 at 00:40 UTC. Our Kansas State vs Colorado prediction has Colorado as a 3-point underdog. The gap is 4.5 points on Kansas State’s side. The threshold for a bet is 3.

The prices

Kansas State at Colorado kicks off Saturday 31 October at 2:00 PM ET at Folsom Field in Boulder. It is a Big 12 game, and neither team is ranked in the AP Poll for Week 9. The spread is Colorado -1.5 at -108 and Kansas State +1.5 at -112.

On the moneyline, Colorado is -125 and Kansas State +105. A book builds in a margin, an extra cut that makes the two prices add to more than 100%. With that margin removed, the market gives Colorado a 53.2% chance to win and Kansas State 46.8%. ESPN’s FPI has Kansas State at 65.9%. The moneyline is context only: our method stakes the spread.

Moneyline implies Kansas State 46.8 percent, Colorado 53.2 percentChance to win the game, as pricedKansas State 46.8%Colorado 53.2%From DraftKings's moneylines, Kansas State +105 and Colorado -125, margin removed.
Source: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-30 00:40 UTC.

How Kansas State by 3 is reached

Our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road. It counts only games against FBS teams, over 2025 and 2026 together. Bowl and playoff games are at neutral sites and are left out.

Colorado is 3-6 at home against FBS teams over that span, with an average margin of -5.2 points. Kansas State is 2-5 on the road against FBS teams, with an average margin of +0.9. The method gives Colorado a home margin of -3.0, which as a spread is Colorado +3.

Against the market’s Colorado -1.5, that is a 4.5-point gap. The rule needs at least 4 games in each sample. Colorado’s has 9 and Kansas State’s has 7.

This season so far

Colorado is 2-5 and 0-4 in the Big 12, on a five-game losing streak. Its wins came 14-13 at Georgia Tech on 3 September and 52-21 over Weber State, a team outside the FBS. The five losses: 41-7 at Northwestern, 23-13 at Baylor, 29-7 to Texas Tech, 27-24 to Utah and 57-24 at Oklahoma State on 24 October.

Kansas State is 4-3 and 1-3 in the Big 12. It beat Nicholls 71-3, a team outside the FBS, then Washington State 34-7, Tulane 31-20 and Kansas 35-24, all at home. It lost 31-26 at Cincinnati, 35-16 at home to Houston and 28-17 at Arizona State on 24 October.

2026 point margin in every game, Colorado and Kansas State2026: point margin in every game so farColorado2-5, -10.0 a game+1+31-34-10-22-3-33Kansas State4-3, +11.7 a game+68+27+11-5-19+11-11Coloured bars are wins, dark grey losses, light grey games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 29 October 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 11 October pull.

Against FBS teams this season, Colorado is 1-5 with an average margin of -16.8. Kansas State is 3-3 at +2.3. These records are outside our number except where a game falls in one of the two halves below. On our reading, this season’s form points the same way as the method.

Colorado at home, Kansas State on the road

Colorado’s home half covers 9 games. In 2025 it went 3-4 at home. This season it lost both of its home games against FBS teams, 29-7 to Texas Tech on 3 October and 27-24 to Utah on 17 October.

Kansas State’s road half covers 7 games. It went 2-3 on the road in 2025. This season it lost 31-26 at Cincinnati and 28-17 at Arizona State. That is a 2-5 record with an average margin of +0.9 a game. The record and the margin point different ways, and the method uses the margin.

The halves the method leaves out are Colorado on the road and Kansas State at home. Colorado went 0-5 on the road in 2025 and lost at Northwestern, Baylor and Oklahoma State this season. Kansas State went 4-2 at home in 2025 and is 4-1 at home this season. Both left-out halves lean toward Kansas State, so leaving them out does not flatter the pick.

Last season and the last game between them

Colorado went 3-9 in 2025, all against FBS teams, scoring 20.9 points a game and allowing 30.5, a margin of -9.6. Kansas State went 6-6, 5-6 against FBS teams, at +2.8 a game. Neither team played a bowl game.

2025 point margin in every game, Colorado and Kansas State2025: point margin in every game, bowls and playoffs includedColorado3-9, -9.6 a game-7+24-16+17-3-14+7-46-35-7-25-10Kansas State6-6, +2.8 a game-3+3-3-6+14-1+13+25-23+8-4+10Oldest game on the left. Light grey bars are games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 29 October 2026.

The teams played once in that span. Kansas State won 24-14 at home on 29 November 2025. That was a Kansas State home game, so it falls in neither half and is outside our number.

Pick: Kansas State +1.5

Kansas State +1.5 at -112, DraftKings, read 30 October 2026 at 00:40 UTC. The gap is 4.5 points against a 3-point threshold.

Colorado opened at +3.5 and is -1.5 now. The base is 9 home games for Colorado and 7 road games for Kansas State, both above the 4-game minimum.

Colorado opened +3.5 and is -1.5 nowColorado's line, from the open to nowpickopen +3.5now -1.5Negative numbers mean Colorado is giving points. The line has moved 5 points toward Colorado.
Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-30 00:40 UTC.

What kills the bet

The line. Kansas State stays a bet down to a pick’em. If Colorado becomes the underdog, the gap falls below 3 and Kansas State is no bet. Colorado would need to be +6 or longer to become the bet.

The ESPN game page, read 30 October 2026 at 00:39 UTC, listed no injuries for either team. A key absence would re-run the method, and none has been reported. Check the lineups before you bet.

The risk is the record. Kansas State’s road half is 2-5, and our number rests on its margin, not its wins. Our method trusts the margin.

The total

The total is 46.5, down from 48.5 at the open. The over is -115 and the under -105.

Game totals for Colorado and Kansas State against 46.5Total points in every game against FBS teams, 2025 and 2026, against this game's 46.5203040506070809010046.5Colorado11 of 18 over 46.5Kansas State10 of 17 over 46.5Each dot is one game against an FBS team. Dots stack where games had the same total.
Source: ESPN results, read 29 October 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 11 October pull. The line: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-30 00:40 UTC.

Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Colorado’s games went over in 11 of 18 and Kansas State’s in 10 of 17. This season Colorado’s six FBS games produced 27, 48, 36, 36, 51 and 81 points. Kansas State’s produced 41, 51, 57, 51, 59 and 45. The last game between them produced 38.

No bet on the total. Our method stakes the spread only, and these figures are a count, not a number we bet.

Kansas State at Colorado, Saturday 31 October, 2:00 PM ET, Folsom Field, Boulder. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 30 October 2026, 00:40 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025 and 2026 seasons. Rankings: AP Poll, Week 9, 2026. Injuries: ESPN game page, read 30 October 2026, 00:39 UTC.