CFB
SpreadTotalMoneyTXST+10.5U 63.5+330BOIS-10.5O 63.5-425
CFB · Saturday 31 October
Texas State vs Boise State Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on Boise State -10.5. Our number is Boise State by 11.2, and 0.7 points is no edge.
Texas State at Boise State kicks off Saturday 31 October at 10:00 PM ET at Albertsons Stadium in Boise. No. 20 Boise State is a 10.5-point favorite at DraftKings. Our number is Boise State by 11.2. The gap is 0.7 points toward Boise State, and the threshold for a bet is 3.
The prices
The spread is Boise State -10.5 at -115 and Texas State +10.5 at -105, read 30 October 2026 at 02:45 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. Boise State opened at -12.5.
The moneyline is Boise State -425 and Texas State +330. A book builds a margin into its prices, so the two implied chances add to more than 100%. With that margin taken out, the market gives Boise State a 77.7% chance to win and Texas State 22.3%. ESPN’s FPI has Boise State at 86.1%. The moneyline is context only. The method stakes the spread.
How 11.2 is reached
Our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road. It uses games against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together. Bowl and playoff games are played at neutral sites and are left out.
Boise State is 7-1 at home against FBS teams over that span, winning by 16.6 points a game. Texas State is 2-6 on the road against FBS teams, losing by 5.8 a game. Half the difference is Boise State by 11.2.
Each side of the sample has 8 games, double the 4-game minimum the rule sets. The sample is adequate. The gap is the problem: 11.2 against 10.5 is 0.7 points, under a quarter of the 3-point threshold.
Boise State at home, Texas State on the road
Two of Boise State’s 2026 home games are in the number: 38-20 over Memphis on 12 September and 37-18 over Utah State on 3 October. The 38-24 win over South Dakota on 19 September is outside it, because South Dakota is not an FBS team. In 2025 Boise State was 6-1 at home.
Texas State’s two 2026 road games are both in the number, and both were losses: 59-7 at Texas on 5 September and 31-29 at San Diego State on 3 October. In 2025 it was 2-4 on the road. The 52-point loss at Texas is the largest result in either half.
The halves the method leaves out point the other way for Texas State. It is 4-1 at home this season, including 66-27 over Colorado State and 49-35 over North Texas. None of that enters a road number.
This season so far
Records, streaks and form are outside our number. They are given here as context.
Boise State is 6-1, 3-0 in the Pac-12, and has won six straight. It scores 34.4 points a game and allows 20.6. Against its six FBS opponents it is 5-1 with a margin of +13.8 a game. The one loss was 34-27 at Oregon on 5 September. Since then it has won 32-7 at Western Michigan, 38-31 at Fresno State and 31-10 at Washington State on 24 October.
Texas State is 4-3, 2-1 in the Pac-12, and has won two straight. It scores 37.1 and allows 30.0. Against FBS teams it is 3-3 with a margin of -0.5 a game. Its last game was a 20-17 home win over Utah State on 24 October, the opponent Boise State beat 37-18 at home three weeks earlier.
On this season’s FBS margins alone, Boise State is the stronger team by a distance that sits close to the line. Form and the method say roughly the same thing as the market.
Last season
Boise State went 9-5 in 2025 with a margin of +5.8 a game, and ended with a 38-10 loss to Washington at a neutral site on 13 December 2025. Texas State went 7-6 at +7.5 a game and beat Rice 41-10 at a neutral site on 2 January 2026. Both of those postseason games are outside our number.
The two teams have not met in 2025 or 2026, so no meeting is in the number.
Pick: No bet
No bet on the spread. Our number is Boise State by 11.2 and the line is 10.5, read 30 October 2026 at 02:45 UTC at DraftKings, where Boise State opened at -12.5. The 0.7-point gap is well short of the 3-point threshold.
The price is about right. The 8-game home sample and the 8-game road sample both land within a point of where DraftKings sits.
What kills the bet
Here it is the line that would make a bet. Boise State becomes a bet at -8.2 or shorter. Texas State becomes a bet at +14.2 or longer. Between those two numbers, this page passes.
This page states nothing on who is available. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total
The total is 63.5, down from 65.5 at the open. The over is -115 and the under -105, read at the same time and book.
Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Boise State’s games went over in 5 of 19, and Texas State’s in 10 of 18. This season Boise State’s six FBS games produced 61, 58, 39, 55, 69 and 41 points. Texas State’s produced 66, 57, 84, 60, 93 and 37.
No bet on the total. The method stakes the spread only, and these figures are a count, not a number. The two teams’ games split on each side of 63.5.
Texas State at Boise State, Saturday 31 October, 10:00 PM ET, Albertsons Stadium, Boise. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 30 October 2026, 02:45 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025 and 2026 seasons, checked against Nucleus. Rankings: 2026 NCAA Football Rankings, AP Poll Week 9. Injuries: ESPN game page, read 30 October 2026, 02:44 UTC.