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Our number has Kent State by 18.1. At -3.5, take Kent State.
Kent State is a 3.5-point favourite over Ball State at DraftKings, down from 4.5 at the open. Our number is Kent State by 18.1. The gap is 14.6 points, and the threshold for a bet here is 3.
How the number is built
Our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together.
Kent State is 2-2 at home against FBS teams over that span, winning by 6.0 points a game across 4 games. Ball State is 0-9 on the road against FBS teams, losing by 30.1 a game across 9 games. The difference is 36.1 points. Half of it is 18.05, which rounds to 18.1.
Four games is the smallest base this method will use without calling it close to worthless, and all four of Kent State’s are from 2025. Its only home game this season was a 36-15 win over Wofford, which is outside the FBS and does not count.
Ball State on the road
Nine road games against FBS teams, nine losses. The closest was 31-25 at UConn in 2025. The rest were by 14 or more, and six of the nine were by 29 or more.
The two worst sit in the sample and pull it down: 56-3 at Ohio State on 5 September and 42-3 at Auburn in 2025. Take both out and Ball State’s road figure is still -25.6 over the other 7 games. Against a 3.5-point spread, the road record is the argument. Ball State has not lost a road game to an FBS team by 3 or fewer in this span.
The most recent was 51-15 at Liberty on 19 September.
Kent State at home
Kent State’s four home games against FBS teams were a 42-6 win over Massachusetts, a 24-21 win over Bowling Green, a 31-28 loss to Buffalo and a 28-16 loss to Central Michigan. The 36-point Massachusetts win carries most of the average.
That is the weak half of this number. Kent State went 5-7 in 2025 and was outscored by 12.3 points a game. The home figure is better than the season around it, and four games cannot say whether that holds.
2026 so far
Both teams are 1-2, and both are 0-2 against FBS teams. Kent State lost 57-0 at South Carolina and 59-3 at Ohio State, then beat Wofford. It has scored 1.5 points a game against its two FBS opponents and allowed 58.0.
Ball State lost at Ohio State, beat Stony Brook 41-17 at home, and lost at Liberty. Against its two FBS opponents it has scored 9.0 a game and allowed 53.5. Both teams come in on a one-game losing streak.
Last season
Ball State went 4-8 in 2025, 0-7 on the road, and was outscored by 14.0 points a game. Kent State went 5-7 and was outscored by 12.3.
They met on 5 November 2025 at Ball State, and Ball State won 17-13. This is a Mid-American Conference game, the first in conference play for either team this season.
The price
Kent State opened at -4.5 and is -3.5 now, read 24 September 2026 at 04:28 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. That is a 1-point move toward Ball State. Kent State -3.5 is priced at even money, +100; Ball State +3.5 is -120.
The moneyline has Kent State at -166 and Ball State at +140, from -185 and +154 at the open. With the margin removed, that prices Kent State to win 60.0% of the time. ESPN’s FPI is closer to a coin flip, with Kent State at 51.3%.
Our number and the market agree on the winner. They disagree by 14.6 points on the size of it, and that is the bet.
Pick: Kent State -3.5
Kent State -3.5 at +100. The gap is 14.6 points against a 3-point threshold.
It rests on 13 games, split 4 and 9, and the 4 is the part to distrust. The 9 is the part that holds: Ball State lost all 9 of its road games against FBS teams in 2025 and 2026, none by fewer than 6.
What changes it
The size of the gap leaves a lot of room. The bet stands up to Kent State -15, where the gap is 3.1. At -15.5 it is 2.6 and the call becomes a pass. Ball State would need to be getting 21 or more before it became the side.
The weakness is the sample, and no line move fixes that. Availability is the other thing, and this page does not state it. Check the injury report before you bet.
The total
The total opened at 51.5 and is 50.5 now, over -115 and under -105.
All six games these two teams have played this season went over 50.5: Ball State’s produced 59, 58 and 66 points, Kent State’s 57, 51 and 62. Across 2025 and 2026 against FBS teams, Kent State’s games went over in 8 of 13, Ball State’s in 5 of 13.
Lean over 50.5, no bet. The 2026 games point one way, but all six were decided by 21 points or more, with one team doing most of the scoring. That is a thin reason to back the over at 50.5.
Ball State at Kent State, Saturday 26 September, 12:00 PM ET, Zoeller Field at Dix Stadium, Kent. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 September 2026, 04:28 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 23-24 September 2026. Neither team is ranked in the AP Poll, Week 4, 2026. Nothing here states who is available.
