CFB
CFB · Saturday 24 October
Louisiana vs Southern Miss Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Our number has Southern Miss by 0.7. At +10, take Southern Miss.
Louisiana is a 10-point favorite at Southern Miss at DraftKings, read 24 October 2026 at 00:16 UTC. Our number makes Southern Miss a 0.7-point favorite. The gap is 10.7 points on Southern Miss’s side, and the threshold for a bet is 3.
The prices and what they say
Southern Miss +10 is priced at -112, and Louisiana -10 at -108. The spread opened at Southern Miss +10.5.
The moneyline has Louisiana at -380 and Southern Miss at +300. A book builds a margin into its prices, so a pair of them adds to more than 100%. With that margin taken out, the market gives Louisiana a 76.0% chance to win and Southern Miss 24.0%. ESPN’s FPI is close to the market: Louisiana 79.5%, Southern Miss 20.5%.
How Southern Miss by 0.7 is reached
The method in one clause: our home margin is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road. It counts FBS opponents only, across 2025 and 2026, and leaves bowl and playoff games out because they are played at neutral sites.
Southern Miss is 3-5 at home against FBS teams over that span, with an average margin of -3.9. Louisiana is 3-6 on the road against FBS teams, at -5.2 a game. Half the difference between -3.9 and -5.2 is Southern Miss by 0.7.
Both teams lose in their half of the method. Louisiana loses by more. Against a line of 10, that makes the gap 10.7 points.
The base is 17 games, 8 for Southern Miss and 9 for Louisiana. Both clear the 4-game minimum the rule sets.
Southern Miss at home, Louisiana on the road
Two of Southern Miss’s 8 home games against FBS teams are from 2026, and both are losses. It lost 48-20 to UConn on 19 September and 23-13 to Arkansas State on 17 October. The -3.9 average leans on 2025, when Southern Miss went 4-3 at home overall.
Louisiana’s road games this season against FBS teams: a 49-30 loss at USC on 12 September, a 34-7 win at Charlotte on 26 September, and a 32-31 loss at Louisiana Tech on 10 October. In 2025 it went 2-4 on the road.
The halves the method leaves out favor Louisiana. Louisiana is 4-0 at home this season, beating Lamar 38-7, UAB 21-14, Arkansas State 23-20 and Troy 33-6. Southern Miss is 0-3 on the road in 2026: 43-8 at Auburn, 24-21 at Tulane and 55-34 at Troy. None of those seven games is in our number.
2026 so far
Southern Miss is 1-5 and 0-2 in the Sun Belt. Its one win was 49-3 over Alcorn State, a team outside the FBS, and it is 0-5 against FBS teams. It scores 24.2 points a game and allows 32.7, a margin of -8.5. Against FBS teams alone the margin is -19.4.
Louisiana is 5-2, 2-1 in the Sun Belt, and 4-2 against FBS teams. It scores 30.0 and allows 19.3, a margin of +10.7, or +7.3 against FBS teams. It comes in on a one-game winning streak after the 33-6 win over Troy on 17 October.
The two teams share two opponents this season. Louisiana beat Arkansas State 23-20 and Troy 33-6, both at home. Southern Miss lost to Arkansas State 23-13 at home and to Troy 55-34 on the road. This season’s form agrees with the market. The case for Southern Miss rests on the longer sample.
Last season and the meeting
Southern Miss went 7-6 in 2025, 6-6 against FBS teams, with a margin of +1.4 a game. It lost its bowl game 27-16 to Western Kentucky on 23 December 2025, at a neutral site. Louisiana went 6-7, 5-7 against FBS teams, at -3.2 a game, and lost 20-13 to Delaware on 17 December 2025, also at a neutral site.
The two teams met once in that span. Southern Miss won 22-10 at Louisiana on 18 October 2025. That was a Louisiana home game, so the method does not use it.
Neither team is ranked in the AP Poll, Week 8.
Pick: Southern Miss +10
Southern Miss +10 at -112, DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 October 2026 at 00:16 UTC. The spread opened at Southern Miss +10.5. The gap is 10.7 points against a 3-point threshold.
It rests on 17 games, split 8 and 9. Both halves are losing records. The number says these two teams are close when Southern Miss plays at home. The line says they are 10 points apart.
What kills the bet
The line. Southern Miss stays a bet down to +2.3. Louisiana would become the bet only at Louisiana +3.7 or better, which would mean Southern Miss favored by that much.
The risk is this season. Southern Miss is 0-5 against FBS teams at -19.4 a game, and has lost both its home games against FBS teams by 10 or more. Louisiana is 4-0 at home. Our number trusts two seasons of home and road splits over six weeks of 2026, and that is the whole bet.
The ESPN game page read at 00:16 UTC on 24 October carried no injury list for this game. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total
The total is 52.5, unchanged from the open. The over is -112 and the under -108.
Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Southern Miss’s games went over in 8 of 17 and Louisiana’s in 10 of 18. This season Southern Miss’s five FBS games produced 51, 68, 45, 89 and 36 points. Louisiana’s six produced 79, 35, 41, 43, 63 and 39. The meeting last season ended 22-10.
No bet on the total. Our method stakes the spread, and these counts sit either side of 52.5.
Louisiana at Southern Miss, Saturday 24 October, 5:00 PM ET, M. M. Roberts Stadium, Hattiesburg. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 October 2026, 00:16 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025 and 2026 seasons, checked against Nucleus. Rankings: 2026 NCAA Football Rankings, AP Poll Week 8. Injuries: ESPN game page, read 24 October 2026, 00:16 UTC.