CFB
SpreadTotalMoneyMTSU+19.5U 49.5+800KU-19.5O 49.5-1350
CFB · Saturday 3 October
Middle Tennessee at Kansas Final Score: Kansas Win 55-0
Final: Kansas Jayhawks 55, Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 0, Saturday 3 October at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium.
Our call lost. Before the game this page said: “Our number has Kansas by 5.2. At +18.5, take Middle Tennessee.” Middle Tennessee +18.5 lost: Middle Tennessee lost by 55.
What decided it
Kansas won the fourth quarter by 21. Kansas turned the ball over 0 times to Middle Tennessee’s 1, and gained 706 yards to 136.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kansas Jayhawks | 3 | 17 | 14 | 21 | 55 |
The last DraftKings line ESPN holds for the game is KU -21.5, with a total of 51.5. Kansas covered as the favourite. The 55 points went over the total.
What comes next
Middle Tennessee plays next against the Kennesaw State Owls on Wednesday 28 October: our prediction. Kansas plays next at the TCU Horned Frogs on Saturday 31 October.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Middle Tennessee at Kansas Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.
Our number has Kansas by 5.2. At +18.5, take Middle Tennessee.
Kansas opened as a 21.5-point favourite at DraftKings and is 18.5 now. Our number is Kansas by 5.2. The gap is 13.3 points, and the threshold for a bet here is 3.
How the number is built
The method is one clause: our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together.
Kansas is 3-4 at home against FBS teams over that span, winning by 2.4 points a game across 7 games. Middle Tennessee is 2-6 on the road against FBS teams, losing by 7.9 a game across 8 games. The difference is 10.3 points. Half of it, rounded, is 5.2.
Kansas has one home game against an FBS team this season, a 38-21 loss to Missouri on 11 September. Middle Tennessee has two road games in its sample from 2026.
Kansas at home
The spread asks whether Kansas wins by 19 or more. It did that in 2 of its 7 home games against FBS teams: 41-10 over West Virginia and 31-7 over Fresno State, both in 2025.
It also beat Oklahoma State 38-21. The four home losses were 37-34 to Cincinnati, 42-17 to Kansas State and 31-21 to Utah in 2025, and the Missouri game this season.
Middle Tennessee on the road
Middle Tennessee lost by 19 or more in 1 of its 8 road games against FBS teams, 42-10 at Wisconsin in 2025. The other road losses were 28-26 at Marshall and 23-13 at Jacksonville State this season, and 24-16 at Kennesaw State, 31-28 at Delaware and 42-26 at Western Kentucky in 2025.
The two wins were 14-13 at Nevada and 31-24 at New Mexico State, both in 2025. Six of the eight road games were decided by 10 points or fewer.
2026 so far
Kansas is 1-2 and has lost two in a row. It beat Long Island University 51-6, a team outside the FBS, then lost to Missouri and 24-17 to Arizona State at a neutral site on 19 September. Against FBS teams it has scored 19.0 points a game and allowed 31.0.
Middle Tennessee is 2-2. It beat Murray State 38-14, a team outside the FBS, and Nevada 27-20 at home, and lost at Marshall and at Jacksonville State on 26 September. Against FBS teams it has scored 22.0 a game and allowed 23.7. This is not a conference game.
Last season
Kansas went 5-7 in 2025 and won by 1.3 a game. Middle Tennessee went 3-9 and lost by 8.5 a game.
Neither team played in the postseason, and the two did not meet in 2025.
The price
Kansas opened at -21.5 and is -18.5 now, read 28 September 2026 at 17:02 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. That is a 3-point move toward Middle Tennessee. Middle Tennessee +18.5 is priced at -108, Kansas -18.5 at -112.
The moneyline has Kansas at -1350 and Middle Tennessee at +800, from -2800 and +1300 at the open. With the margin removed, that prices Kansas to win 89.3% of the time. ESPN’s FPI has Kansas at 89.2%.
Pick: Middle Tennessee +18.5
Middle Tennessee +18.5 at -108. The gap is 13.3 points against a 3-point threshold.
It rests on 15 games, split 7 and 8. Kansas is the likelier winner by every measure here, ours included. The disagreement is the size of the win: 13.3 points of it.
What changes it
The line has room. At Middle Tennessee +8.5 the gap is 3.3 and the bet stands. At +8 it is 2.8, and the call becomes a pass.
Availability is the other thing, and this page does not state it. Check the injury report before you bet.
The total
The total opened at 52.5 and is 50.5 now, over -112 and under -108, as read at DraftKings.
Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Kansas’s games went over 50.5 in 9 of 13, and Middle Tennessee’s in 7 of 14. Kansas’s two FBS games this season produced 59 and 41 points; Middle Tennessee’s three produced 54, 47 and 36.
Pass on the total at 50.5. Kansas leans over, and Middle Tennessee’s sample sits at half.
Middle Tennessee at Kansas, Saturday 3 October, 12:00 PM ET, David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium, Lawrence. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 28 September 2026, 17:02 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 28 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.